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The great thing about AI generals...


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#1
funkervogt

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...is that they'd tell you early on in a war whether you were going to win or lose. Think about it: If the AIs are capable of considering every variable and running billions of war simulations, they should be able to calculate the odds of victory with high accuracy. Even early on, when your country seemed to be riding high, your AI general might hit you with bad news that the enemy will recover and win in the long run. 

 

This could actually make wars less frequent and less costly, as countries wouldn't start wars in the first place if they knew victory was unlikely or would be too damaging to themselves.



#2
Jakob

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I doubt it. They'd just add more variables to the equation, making it more complicated to predict the outcome, and they'd be no better at predicting these things than we are. Also "billions of war simulations" is ridiculously many orders of magnitude beyond state of the art computing--we can barely simulate proteins interacting at present.


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#3
Alislaws

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If both sides were controlled by AIs with these predictive abilities, War would only occur when the AIs disagree on the outcome. Which could happen whenever one or both sides do not have complete information on the enemy.

 

You could get some interesting situations where people are invaded by someone who their AI general says has no chance of winning, and then they have to frantically look at all their capabilities (Hopefully the enemy missed something important and they are def. going to lose) And re-examine the enemy capabilities, in case they have a secret weapon that changes the AI calc

 

*(maybe 100 years from now this might be feasible, or humans in aggregate turn out to be predictable enough that an advanced war simulation AI can cut a lot of corners and remain accurate) 



#4
Yuli Ban

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I doubt it. They'd just add more variables to the equation, making it more complicated to predict the outcome, and they'd be no better at predicting these things than we are. Also "billions of war simulations" is ridiculously many orders of magnitude beyond state of the art computing--we can barely simulate proteins interacting at present.

This. Chaos theory alone tells us that it's almost impossible to account for every little detail and branch the further you go out. You can make some broad guesses but the specifics can change from the most minor variables, which is why weather prediction hasn't become perfect despite our hyper-powerful supercomputer models.

Including AI into the equation can greatly increase your odds to the point predictive analytics might be indistinguishable from artificial clairvoyance for at least some time, but it's still impossible to figure out everything years down the line. 


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.





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