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Predictions about Bitcoin in 2018 (published Jan 4, 2018)


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#1
funkervogt

funkervogt

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I just found this old article: https://qz.com/11719...arch-institute/

 

 

1. The value of cryptocurrencies continues to grow

We still remain positive on the market as a whole. Forget about a massive and permanent crash. Cryptoassets will be volatile, and there will be melt-downs, but expect an overall increase in value, as long as innovation in functionality continues.
 
We are still in the early stage. Oddly, bitcoin’s meteoric price rise makes it easier and not harder for new investors to justify stepping in as it is now a large asset class too big to ignore. 2018 will see widespread institutional buying of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies but buyers beware—for bitcoin to sustain its rally, scaling solutions must work in the real world, and critical governance challenges must be resolved.

 

The price of one Bitcoin was about $17,000 on January 1, 2018, and about $3,700 on December 31, 2018. 



#2
Erowind

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Bitcoin might follow Metcalfe's Law in the same way that Facebook and Tencent did. Yes, that article looks cartoonish. But in the long term bitcoin will find a more stable valuation likely worth more than it is currently. 

 

There's a base value that bitcoin might be worth and these hype cycles that can be forensically linked to market manipulation are just deviations from that base value, a base value that has been growing for the past 9 years. A bitcoin right now in accordance with user growth rate probably is somewhere between 4.5k and 5k. Give it another 2-4 years and that value will likely be closer to 10K. A bubble could easily deviate into the 20-30K price region in that time period aswell. 

 

https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.05663


Current status: slaving away for the math gods of Pythagoras VII.





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