Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!
Photo

The Singularity - Official Thread

Singularity AI Deep Learning Technology Artificial Intelligence Future Science Culture Government Computers

  • Please log in to reply
118 replies to this topic

Poll: The Singularity (75 member(s) have cast votes)

How do you feel about the Singularity

  1. Voted Excited (47 votes [49.47%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 49.47%

  2. Scared (11 votes [11.58%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 11.58%

  3. Skeptical (24 votes [25.26%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 25.26%

  4. Angry (3 votes [3.16%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 3.16%

  5. Neutral (5 votes [5.26%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 5.26%

  6. What's That? (1 votes [1.05%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 1.05%

  7. Other (4 votes [4.21%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 4.21%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#101
Alric

Alric

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,055 posts

Probably. Just thinking about it logically, humans create tools, and we use those tools to make better tools. The tools we get are more advanced and complex each time. This trend has always been true. There is no real reason to think that it will not continue, and if it does eventually we will get to the point where we are making some crazy stuff. The most well known example of course, is that eventually we will have computers programming themselves to be better at programming themselves, which will make them crazy smart, crazy fast.

 

I think the more interesting question is when will it happen, and what will it look like.


  • Casey likes this

#102
spartans2015

spartans2015

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 57 posts
Thanks it is such an interesting topic

#103
wjfox

wjfox

    Administrator

  • Administrators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,694 posts
  • LocationLondon

 

Will singularity happen ??

 

It probably happened already. I think we're in some kind of ancestor simulation. It's just too much of a coincidence to be alive at such a pivotal point in history.

 

I mean, when I die of old age (presumably around 2055-2065), that's pretty much the exact point when I can foresee this 'Singularity' taking off. A decade or two after Kurzweil's prediction date of 2045. Presumably that's when the 'game' ends, I get revived (alongside thorough techniques to reduce the psychological shock), and discover it's actually centuries or millennia hence. I was in some kind of simulation/game all along, created by the hyper-advanced AI of the far future. Perhaps the game was even created by myself or some combination of me and the AI.

 

Then I get to 'play' again – because I'm immortal and in digital form – so I can be downloaded into a new body (with previous memories erased), to try a new 'life' all over again –Quantum Leap-style. Perhaps this could happen billions of times, until I've experienced literally every life there ever was on Earth, back in the distant past. I only become aware of the 'real' date and the 'real' reality when a death happens, at the end of each 'life', and my memories are restored when I temporarily pop back into the simulation room.

 

Then again... maybe the world I see around me is base reality, and it's just a staggering coincidence that I live during what feels like the cusp of a new era in Earth's history.

 

Either way, the mid-21st century will be profoundly exciting.


  • Yuli Ban and Erowind like this

#104
tomasth

tomasth

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 239 posts

wjfox ,

If your memory of your mind changing as you grow up is implanted , how do you know now is not an implanted memory ? If you did grow , then an adult you isn't incarnated at death. If that was part of the simulation , then all the rest of the universe with its space-time is , and we call it physics.

 

 

just too much of a coincidence to be alive at such a pivotal point in history.

 

staggering coincidence that I live during what feels like the cusp of a new era in Earth's history.

Coincidence of what with what ?

 

Does living in a pivotal point in history require something more ?



#105
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,705 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

It's possible we're in a simulation because of how closely we were born to the supposed Singularity. 

 

Of course, consider also the fact that more humans are alive now than at any other point in history. Roughly 8 billion today. A little over 100 billion humans are said to have lived in all of history. We had a roughly 1 in 13 chance of existing now, a higher chance than at any other point in history as well. If, as this article proclaims, technological and economic growth historically follow population growth, then even an ancient Sumerian could have predicted that you'd have a higher chance of existing if you were born closer to the Singularity. 


  • wjfox and Erowind like this

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#106
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,705 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

Here's a Reddit thread from October 2006 about human speciation and the possibility of the Singularity.


  • wjfox and Casey like this

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#107
Casey

Casey

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 676 posts

 

It would have been terrible to be a futurist back in 2006. Just as many smug, pompous jerk-offs who simply make snide remarks rather than engage in proper argumentation, but not enough tangible progress for me to be able to shrug them off - honestly, had I entered the world of futurism in 2006, I might have fully believed the skeptics and become rather cynical myself, since many fields that are progressing nicely today (anti-aging, driverless cars, artificial intelligence) felt so impossible at the time. I might have been something of a techno-skeptic myself in that alternate universe where I come across futurism during 2006 or before, at least until the successes of the 2010s started to make me a believer. Even my entry point of 2011 was pretty tense; it's only been during the past two years or so that I've been able to start ignoring the chronically negative people who think nothing will ever change for the better and downplay any progress that's been made, thanks to the fact that we've come so far in so many fields.


  • wjfox, Zaphod, eacao and 2 others like this

#108
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,705 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

ETCeACL.png

You know something, the "Eternal Y2K Cultural Time-Trap Forever" possibility might be even worse than the Eco-Fascist/Neo-Primitivist one. At least in a neo-primitivist world, no one would know how much we're losing out by failing to reach the Singularity and transhumanism or how utterly vulnerable we are. 

Imagine if this is it, though. A slightly sleeker 1985 to 2025 is the best we will ever get. Ridiculously polluted, absolutely alienated, with a transcendental future just beyond us as if we're a civilizational Tantalus. AI is restrained, culture wars keep swinging, and —

 

Globohomo Vampire-Elite Enslavement?

I... I need to see what that looks like.


  • Mr.posthuman likes this

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#109
Squillimy

Squillimy

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 924 posts

Personally I think the singularity will happen and we'll create higher intelligent machines, but it won't be what we expect it to be. The AI will find it hard to create even higher intelligent machines than that itself.

 

Think about it. Take the creation of AI as a starting point, then take super-intelligent AI as the next level. It took us a long time to get from one level to the next, even if you take 'human-level' AI as the starting point. If a super-AI only has its own software to base intelligence from, how could it instantly know exactly how to create an intelligence greater than itself? I mean... If the human-level AI couldnt instantly create a super-AI, why the hell would the super-AI be able to instantly create a super-super-AI? Why do we assume that just because it's smarter than us it knows EVERYTHING there is to know about itself, about intelligence as a concept? WE don't know everything there is to know about ourselves. WE don't know everything about intelligence. WE were only able to create it because we worked together as a species for so long to reach that point.

 

Sure, it has the ability of course to create an intelligence greater than itself, but it's only one being. I think it would need multiple beings of similar intelligence and different viewpoints to approach the path to create an even higher intelligence than the super-AI. Just like it took us time and collaboration of several beings of similar intelligence to create the FIRST super-AI.

 

Think about it like inventing algebra. Just because you moved from arithmetic (1 + 1 = 2) to algebra (1x + 2 = 4) doesn't mean you automatically moved to calculus. You needed several people that knew algebra to come together and eventually discover a higher level of mathematics. Since you're ONE person who knows algebra you have no frame of reference or aid to increase to higher mathematical levels. You're more likely to just research deeper levels of algebra.

 

I just think it's kinda utopian to think "oh we created ONE singular being that's smarter than us in every field! our woes are over! mankind is saved!".  Like it's probably a bit more complicated than that...


What becomes of man when the things that man can create are greater than man itself?


#110
tomasth

tomasth

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 239 posts
Squillimy

Why just ONE singular being ?



#111
Squillimy

Squillimy

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 924 posts

Squillimy

Why just ONE singular being ?

 

 

Because of Ray Kurzweil's quote "the last invention mankind need ever make is a super-intelligent AI". Not sure if that's the exact word for word quote but the gist of it. I don't agree with him on that. I think we will create multiple ones based on our own understandings, just like we repetitively are creating multiple AI's today. And as we begin merging with technology to enhance our own intelligence, we will in turn keep creating more sophisticated AI's, as those AI's themselves continually try to create more sophisticated AI's and so on and so forth.

 

It's just that it seems like he makes it sound like the second we create that first super-intelligence, we kick back our seats and say job well done.


What becomes of man when the things that man can create are greater than man itself?


#112
tomasth

tomasth

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 239 posts

If that AI can do our job and faster , then yes. That being will make more because there is a lot to do.

 

If you compar calculating by a human and by a computer , a computer can do it faster ; but the task is still done so it might need several steps.



#113
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,705 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

How the Technological Singularity will Impact the World (according to seventh graders)

When I was a teacher, at the end of the school year, I would try to leave a day or two to teach about miscellaneous topics the students expressed interest in — each year, this included technology. So, I taught a brief lesson (you can find more details about the lesson at the end of this post) about emerging technologies, and about the futurist theory that “the technological singularity is near.”
First, I gave the students a working definition for the singularity (see above). Next, I had the students consider what kinds of technologies might emerge in their lifetimes. Then, I had them consider how the post-singularity world might look, through the four major lenses for understanding Social Studies, which we had been studying all year: political systems, culture, geography, and economics. I felt doing this lesson allowed me to cover a topic students wanted to learn about, while giving students a chance to think creatively, and exercise their philosophical thinking skills.
My students’ imaginative visions of our future depict a world that is sometimes rosy and exciting, and other times dystopian and disconcerting. They came up with some intriguing, terrifying, and amazing ideas about how political systems, culture, geography, and economics might be impacted — some of their predictions might blow your mind.

 
 
WOW, this is what I like seeing: youth discussions into futurist topics! I'll do two PowerPoint pictures to a post:

u0wvYgC.jpg

c3Q3peK.jpg


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#114
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,705 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

N3w57Pr.jpg

aGsbBu6.jpg


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#115
tomasth

tomasth

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 239 posts

Indeed. Youth discussions of futurist topics is normalizing them , making those topics mainstream and more impotently changing the starting point of other discussions.



#116
wjfox

wjfox

    Administrator

  • Administrators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,694 posts
  • LocationLondon

Another example of "exponential" progress in science/tech (similar trend can be seen with exoplanet discoveries, btw).

 

https://www.futureti...g/2019/10/9.htm

 

 

1775-solar-system-moons-discovery-timeli


  • Kynareth, Zaphod and Yuli Ban like this

#117
eacao

eacao

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 430 posts
  • LocationAustralia

About two months ago I came across an article that stated this century, global economic growth would accelerate from a 4% CAGR today, doubling each ~15 years to doubling every two years, then every few months or even weeks. I didn't pay much attention at the time. 

 

I wasn't sure whether the Singularity would really be a hard takeoff or a soft takeoff. There were good arguments either way imho. Computing hardware being the bottleneck, the problem of raising intelligence by '1 point' being harder than the previous increase, nullifying compounded returns and so on. 

 

But then one night, days later, I was trying to sleep and hit me: "I've seen economic singularities before."

 

These are some graphs that made me realise sudden jumps in the rate of economic growth materialise extremely rapidly. These are for the most recent 'singularity' but history is riddled with several more.

 

These were taken from the Handbook of Economic Development, volume II iirc. 

 

uXTiMaE.png

 

r3K9a9I.jpg


If you're going through hell, keep going. - Winston Churchill

You don't decide your future. You decide your habits, and your habits decide your future.
Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power. - Abraham Lincoln.


#118
eacao

eacao

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 430 posts
  • LocationAustralia

ZRJ67qZ.png

 

Also take into account the rate of change after the development of copper working, agriculture of course, and iron working. Natural evolution is also littered with apparent 'singularities' or inflection points. Abiogenesis obviously was the first, but haploids and sexual reproduction similarly sped things along by orders of magnitude. Eukaryotes, collagen, social structures and more. 

 

I'm quite convinced that this will all be a hard takeoff now. When tho, when when when when when?


If you're going through hell, keep going. - Winston Churchill

You don't decide your future. You decide your habits, and your habits decide your future.
Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power. - Abraham Lincoln.


#119
quantumdoc

quantumdoc

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 13 posts
  • LocationUnited States

If the concept of a singularity does not scare you, I suspect you are not educated on it. I believe it is already in beta stage as we speak. the internet was the beginning. I have heard it described best by elon musk. he describes how right now the singularity is contained within all of us as we interact with the internet and right now the transfer medium is a computer and our phone. these devices link our brain to the internet of which connects the planet. the only limiting factor at this point is the data transfer rate. he goes on to explain we just have a data transfer issue and that is the speed being limited buy the medium we are using, (our phone). he said the moment there are neurological implants reducing the transfer speed to as instantaneous as thought, our human civilization will be forever linked.

 

I believe this is not if, but when and is entirely inevitable. the sooner we embrace it and not fight it, the better we will be. sound like the borg? :spiteful:


"what we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning" WH






Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Singularity, AI, Deep Learning, Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Future, Science, Culture, Government, Computers

0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users