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Iran Crisis Thread

Iran Persian Gulf Trump war

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#1
Yuli Ban

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Japanese Oil Tanker Owner Says U.S. Is Wrong About Gulf Attack

Yutaka Katada, the owner of one of the stricken fuel tankers crippled in explosions in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday, says the U.S. is wrong about the way the attack was carried out. Speaking at a press conference in Tokyo on Friday, he contradicted Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the U.S. Navy, which released a video that purports to show an Iranian patrol boat removing a limpet mine from the port side of the Kokuka Courageous. Katada said his ship was attacked on the starboard side by a flying object, not by a mine. “It seems that something flew towards them. That created the hole, is the report I’ve received,” Katada said, according to the Financial Times. “It seems there was a high chance they were attacked by a flying object. The impact was well above the water. I don’t think it was a torpedo.” The Japanese ship owner did not say who might be responsible for the attack. Iran has vehemently denied it was involved.

So how stupid do you think Trump and Bolton think Americans are?
More importantly, how correct do you think they are with their assessment?


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#2
Yuli Ban

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Tangpo

Questions I'm not seeing in the media:

How does the US know for a fact the boat that approached the tanker later in the day is Iranian?

How do the US know with such a degree of certainty the boat was removing limpet mines?

Where did the boat come from prior to approaching the tanker

Where did it go after it left the tanker?

What does the US analysis say regarding the motivations of Iran in allegedly attacking these tankers?

What are the tanker crewmen saying about what transpired prior to the explosions?

These are presumably modern ships with fairly advanced marine radar, positioning, and communication systems. Is there any evidence in the systems or logs showing they were approached by small craft prior to the explosions?

What does the forensic evidence from the explosion sites show? Were these limpet mines, torpedoes, missiles, internal bombs?

How did the US come to the conclusion that it was Iran so quickly? What investigation did it conduct to come to this conclusion? Months later, this Administration has still not officially concluded Saudi Arabia was responsible for Jamal Khashogi's murder.

I'm sure there are many other questions....


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#3
Sciencerocks

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I think it is a false flag attack to get America into another war.


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#4
Maximus

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I think it is a false flag attack to get America into another war.

Surely the CIA is getting ragged on enough by Trump to leave him on read at this point.

 

I wouldn't be surprised though if this was another attempt by the US to use a shitty situation to justify acting on pre-existing and likely unrelated interests (cough *Iraq* cough).


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#5
PhoenixRu

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I think it is a false flag attack to get America into another war.

 

Yes, most likely.

 

iran_war_cartoon-768x532.jpg


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#6
PhoenixRu

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Downing of US drone a ‘clear message’ to Washington — Iran’s IRGC commander

 

The head of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards says the downing of a US drone over its territory was a “clear message” to Washington, proving Tehran will react strongly to any military aggression.
 
Just hours earlier, Iran claimed to have shot down a US RQ-4 spy drone over Hormozgan Province. This "was a clear message to America,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander-in-chief, Hossein Salami, told local media.

 

Wikipedia says one RQ-4 costs 215 million USD. Good job, Iran!



#7
Yuli Ban

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India warships sent to strategic Gulf waters

India has sent warships and stepped up aerial surveillance in strategic Gulf waters, the Press Trust of India reported on Thursday, with global tensions rising in the region.
"INS Chennai and INS Sunayna have been deployed in the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf to undertake maritime security operations," the navy said, quoted by PTI.
The aim is "to re-assure the Indian-flagged vessels operating/transiting through the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, following the maritime security incidents in the region," the navy said.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#8
Yuli Ban

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After Iran’s Drone Attack, Trump Says This Country ‘Will Not Stand for It’

President Trump blamed someone “loose and stupid” in Iran for shooting down a United States surveillance drone early Thursday, and in bellicose comments warned that “this country will not stand for it, that I can tell you.”
But the president at the same time appeared to offer a way out of the crisis, saying that he suspected it was some individual in Iran who “made a big mistake,” even as Iran had taken credit for the strike and asserted that the high-altitude American drone was operating over Iranian air space, which American officials denied.
Mr. Trump drew an important distinction in stating that the episode would have been far more serious if the aircraft had been a piloted vehicle, and not a drone. It made “a big, big difference” that an American pilot was not threatened, he told reporters at the White House at the start of a midday meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada.
By Thursday afternoon, the top leadership of Congress had been summoned to a classified briefing on Iran in the White House Situation Room.

Surprised that he actually downplayed this.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#9
tierbook

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After Iran’s Drone Attack, Trump Says This Country ‘Will Not Stand for It’

President Trump blamed someone “loose and stupid” in Iran for shooting down a United States surveillance drone early Thursday, and in bellicose comments warned that “this country will not stand for it, that I can tell you.”
But the president at the same time appeared to offer a way out of the crisis, saying that he suspected it was some individual in Iran who “made a big mistake,” even as Iran had taken credit for the strike and asserted that the high-altitude American drone was operating over Iranian air space, which American officials denied.
Mr. Trump drew an important distinction in stating that the episode would have been far more serious if the aircraft had been a piloted vehicle, and not a drone. It made “a big, big difference” that an American pilot was not threatened, he told reporters at the White House at the start of a midday meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada.
By Thursday afternoon, the top leadership of Congress had been summoned to a classified briefing on Iran in the White House Situation Room.

Surprised that he actually downplayed this.

 

Why? For all that Trump wants to cripple Iran he's never been pro-war.



#10
PhoenixRu

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Surprised that he actually downplayed this.

 

I'm not surprised at all. As the world learned from the previous cases (Korea and Syria in April 2017, Syria in April 2018) his style consists of loud and bold words followed by unproportionally humble deeds. Other words, he act like a bully hiding his own fear behind demonstrative "toughness".

 

Back in April 2017, if you remember, he sent Tillerson to Moscow with arrogant ultimatum: Russians must admit that they were "fooled" by Assad and then join "the right side of history", or else... it was clear that ultimatum will be immediatelly rejected and many people here (incl.me) expected war. But... NOTHING happened.

 

Lesson was learned, one year later it was already Russia who warned USA: at least one Russian serviceman in Syria affected by your strikes = war! In result, US missile strike was purely demonstrative: 70+ tomahawk missiles hit three long abandoned buildings and Trump declared "victory"...

 

Summary: superpower should not act like this. Its threats should be rare and voiced politely, but always backed by actions, and only then they'll make enemies tremble. Mindless non-stop barking will not impress anyone...


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#11
Outlook

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Yea, same with North Korea too. It's a signature Trump move.


Outlook's secret song of the ~week: https://youtu.be/DGe_Sluth3A


#12
Yuli Ban

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Trump Approves Strikes on Iran, but Then Abruptly Pulls Back

President Trump approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation for downing an American surveillance drone, but pulled back from launching them on Thursday night after a day of escalating tensions.
As late as 7 p.m., military and diplomatic officials were expecting a strike, after intense discussions and debate at the White House among the president’s top national security officials and congressional leaders, according to multiple senior administration officials involved in or briefed on the deliberations.
Officials said the president had initially approved attacks on a handful of Iranian targets, like radar and missile batteries.
The operation was underway in its early stages when it was called off, a senior administration official said. Planes were in the air and ships were in position, but no missiles had been fired when word came to stand down, the official said.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#13
Yuli Ban

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Elbobosan

People comparing the danger of Trump, Bolton, and Pompeo fooling the country/world into war to the Bush Iraq WMDs but the they miss the size of Iran and the scope of a war with that country.
It’s as big as Germany. Sorry. It has about as many people as Germany. Over 80 million. It’s the 18th most populated country on earth. It’s also the 18th biggest economy in the world as well at about 1.7 Trillion. That’s just behind Canada and Saudi Arabia but hundreds of Billions more than Australia - that underdeveloped defenseless third world country. I didn’t mean to say it was as big as Germany, it’s not even close. It is over 4 times bigger than Germany. It is a massive country with large portions being inhospitable and impassable mountains and deserts. It is not an exaggeration to say that it’s very land is a fortress.
Invading Iran is invading an economy the size of Texas with nearly 3 times the population and more than twice as much area to cover with 10 times the logistical issues. It would make the Vietnam War seem quaint, short, and clean. This ignores that this would almost certainly lead to a cascading series of events that would incite massive, possibly global war. Nearly every probable scenario would result in the deaths of millions as a result of the conflict and its secondary impacts. To accomplish what goals???
If you aren’t terrified of the idea of starting this war I strongly encourage you to speak to a veteran who’s under 80. If the war goes well it would mean years of death and violence on a scale the US has not seen in 2 generations. It won’t go well. I have no idea why we are even considering it.
I’ve posted version of this several times and I e gotten a few response saying the equivalent of “but we’ll just use our Air Force/bombings/missile strikes” or even “we’ll just use nukes.” The first group are scary because they don’t seem to grasp basic math or history. The second are not sane.
The use of ANY nuclear weapons changes the world as we know it. It is the most taboo act of war short of possibly a biological attack. If the order was given it would be better if there were a coup in the US. That would be less destabilizing. Not downplaying that, I’m trying to give a sense of scope. It would break the Western alliance and the US economy, followed by the world, would take a hit to the economy on par with the Great Depression.
Edit: Addition really - Tehran, Iran has a larger population than NYC. Both weigh in at just below 9 Million people. Imagine trying to take any action against a city of that size without committing multiple war crimes by accident. Imagine the response to Katrina, but with war. That’s only a tenth of the population.
There are 5 other cities in Iran with populations over 1 million.
There are 60 more cities with population between 100 thousand and 1 million.
For reference, Albany, NY doesn’t quite have 100 thousand residents. There are 139 OTHER cities in Iran in Albany’s bracket. Source
Edit2 - Call your Representatives! I hadn’t called about this before, but I just did. I actually spoke to a person at the office of Roy Blunt (MO). I started a generic 15 second, you don’t care and I know that, statement of concern and then I switched tactics and asked the person if they knew how many people lived in Iran. In Tehran. If they had a ballpark guess. They didn’t and I told them. I wasn’t calm but I didn’t yell. I begged. I said “Please, this isn’t a political call. War on this scale is unthinkable and nobody is saying anything. You’re THERE. Say something, I’m begging you PLEASE say anything. Just say that you’re scared because you’d be crazy not to be. Please! It’s almost too late, but you’re there. Try. Please.” They were shook by it, not that I expect it to work directly, but they heard those numbers. I’m going to do that some more.
Edit3 - Just had a long conversation with someone in Rep. Ann Wagner’s office. They guessed that Iran had a population of around 500k. Let that sink in. That 1/163 of the right answer. Theran has 18 times that many.
He heard me out for several minutes. He said he’d give my numbers to the rep.


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#14
tierbook

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I mean..... it's not like a city having a large population has been that big of an issue before.... hard to say how large Iraq's cities were in 2003 because demographic data is.... spotty from the region. 

 

Today though Baghdad's population is just behind Tehran, and there are 7 cities over 1mil. Way fewer cities in the 100k to 1mil range though.



#15
Yuli Ban

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New US sanctions on Iran

US President Donald Trump has said he is imposing hard-hitting new sanctions on Iran, including on the office of the country's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Mr Trump said the additional sanctions were in response to the shooting down of a US drone and "many other things".
Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's highest authority, was singled out because he was "ultimately responsible for the hostile conduct of the regime".
Tensions between the two countries have been escalating in recent weeks.


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#16
Yuli Ban

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Iran ‘Won’t Be Alone’ If U.S. Attacks, Russian Official Says

Iran “won’t be alone” if the United States decides to launch a military strike on the Islamic republic, a senior Russian diplomat said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump targeted Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian officials with sanctions on Monday. The dramatic step to increase pressure on Iran follows Tehran’s downing of an unmanned American drone last week, which Russia said had violated Iranian airspace. On Tuesday, Trump threatened to obliterate parts of Iran if it attacked "anything American," but later left the door open for talks.


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#17
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Iran nuclear deal: Enriched uranium limit breached, IAEA confirms

 

Iran has breached the limit on its stockpile of enriched uranium set under a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, the global watchdog has confirmed.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said its inspectors had verified the 300kg (660lb) cap had been exceeded.

Iran stepped up production of enriched uranium, which is used to make reactor fuel and potentially nuclear weapons, in response to reinstated US sanctions.

European nations have warned that any violation will bring consequences.

The deal allows for the re-imposition of multilateral sanctions that were lifted in return for Iran limiting its nuclear activities.

 

https://www.bbc.co.u...e-east-48784786

 

 

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#18
Raklian

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So, I guess US will send in covert operatives to sabotage Iran's nuclear program. 


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#19
Maximus

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So, I guess US will send in covert operatives to sabotage Iran's nuclear program. 

Let's hope that's the worst of it. I could also see Israel attempting to strike Iran's reactors if the program neared a feasible nuclear weapon. Worst case scenario, we could be looking at an invasion of Iran by the US, which would almost guarantee intervention by Russia or China (or both).



#20
PhoenixRu

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Worst case scenario, we could be looking at an invasion of Iran by the US, which would almost guarantee intervention by Russia or China (or both).

 

Highly unlikely. Russian society will not understand this.

 

If I was Putin, i'd send them money, weapon, reconnaissance information, my best wishes... In ideal case, this indirect support will be enough for Iran to withstand the first strike and make the war long and bloody, to make invaders pay with hundreds and thousands of lives. And since we live in information age, these deaths would be well documented and presented to US public on special site: justice.ru or something like that.


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