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Iran Crisis Thread

Iran Persian Gulf Trump war

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#21
Erowind

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I still think this posturing and a distraction from greater issues. It makes zero sense for the Trump administration to go to war this close to the next election. Which is also why the recession probably hasn't hit yet btw, it wouldn't look good.



#22
Yuli Ban

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I can't see Putin and Xi and perhaps even Erdogan not doing this. With the right material & monetary support, Iran could bog down the USA and Saudi Arabia long enough to usher in a new "February/October Revolution" in Riyadh and inflict a death toll of 100,000 plus on America on top of getting rid of multiple warships and aircraft carriers, which would fundamentally shift the balance of power in the Pacific to at least one much more equitable between the USA and PRC. 

Saudi Arabia can't even crush some rebels in Yemen, so facing off an actually somewhat-developed country like Iran that's backed by two major world & 1 rising regional power would easily lead to the end of the House of Saud (and possibly a nationwide blue-bloodbath not unlike what befell the Romanovs a century prior).

And the USA only needs to see reports that victory is not at all guaranteed as it was in Iraq for public confidence to be eviscerated— literally the only reason anyone I know supports a war with Iran is because they believe we can run them through like we did Iraq, but this time "be smart about it and leave quickly" (not quite understanding why we left the first time around). If there were reports coming out of the Persian Gulf of 1,000 deaths in a week like what happened in Vietnam, even Trump's base will start having second thoughts. Of course, there are also two other risks: sunk-cost fallacy kicking in (we've already sacrificed this many lives; why not at least take it to the end?) and the desire to win at all costs. And by all costs, I mean: https://www.youtube....h?v=po7a4J8cwwc

 

Trump might want to go nuclear, but the international condemnation the USA would receive would be so severe and swift that he'd just be saying goodbye to the one thing propping up his presidency at this point: the economy. That's the only thing I can see that would actually lead to outright sanctions against the USA and would virtually undo all progress in the trade war with China overnight. Trump, if nothing else, is direly concerned about keeping this going, perhaps out of the assumption history will vindicate him if the economy remains good on his watch (and he's not entirely wrong about the possibility— presidents have done worse than him and have come out better in the history books entirely because Middle America had a job).

 

Though the only truly irrational actor in this scenario has to be Israel. I can definitely see them shooting nukes at Iran the moment it's even so much as implied the USA won't win, because a victorious Iran ultimately means a nuclear Iran. There's absolutely no alternative in that case, because now they've proven the USA will attack without some other means of defense. And if Saudi Arabia is pushed past its breaking point, that means there's no counterweight in the Middle East to stand against Iran except Israel.


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#23
caltrek

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'This Is a Dangerous Game': Iran Tells US and UK to Leave Gulf Region Immediately as Tensions Soar

 

https://www.commondr...y-tensions-soar

 

Introduction:

 

(Common Dreams) As tensions in the Persian Gulf continue to escalate after British forces seized an Iranian oil tanker last week, Iran on Friday called on the U.K. to release the vessel and demanded that Western powers get out of the region immediately.

 

"This is a dangerous game and has consequences," said Abbas Mousavi, spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry. "The legal pretexts for the capture are not valid... The release of the tanker is in all countries' interests."

 

Mousavi went on to urge foreign powers to "leave the region" to avert a full-blown conflict.

 

"Iran and other regional countries are capable of securing the regional security," Mousavi said. "Iran has repeatedly expressed its readiness to hold talks with its neighbors to resolve disputes."

 

Mousavi's comments came just 24 hours after the U.K. accused Iran of attempting to block the passage of a British tanker in the Persian Gulf.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#24
caltrek

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European powers urge unity to save Iran nuclear deal

 

https://www.aljazeer...5060004987.html

 

Introduction:

 

(Al Jazeera) The Iran nuclear deal is not yet dead, but the United Kingdom has warned there remains just a small window to save it, as European foreign ministers gather in Brussels to find ways to convince Washington and Tehran to engage in dialogue.

 

Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated since US President Donald Trumpunilaterally withdrew from a landmark pact last year and reimposed sanctions on Iran. Iran has subsequently decided to no longer respect some of its obligations. Tehran says it will come back into full compliance if European powers ensure it can sell oil on global markets - a revenue stream blocked by the US sanctions regime.

 

"Iran is still a good year away from developing a nuclear bomb. There is still some closing, but small window to keep the deal alive," UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt told reporters before the Brussels meeting.

 

There is still time to save the deal signed in 2015 between Iran and world powers, said Hunt, adding that, despite the US being Britain's closest ally, it disagreed on how to handle the Iran crisis.

 

Similarly, France's Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said Europe had to remain united in trying to preserve the deal and convince Tehran to reverse its decision not to comply with parts of the accord.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#25
caltrek

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Update

 

 

https://www.courthou...anker-and-crew/

 

Introduction:

 

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran’s Revolutionary Guard forces have seized a foreign oil tanker accused of smuggling oil with a crew of 12, Iran’s state TV reported Thursday, days after an oil tanker based in the United Arab Emirates disappeared from trackers in Iranian territorial waters.

 

The Panamanian-flagged oil tanker MT Riah stopped transmitting its location on Sunday night near Qeshm Island, which has a Revolutionary Guard base on it, according to data listed on tracking site Maritime Traffic.

 

Iran state television did not identify the seized vessel, but said it was intercepted on Sunday. It said the oil tanker had 12 foreign crew members on board and was involved in smuggling 1 million liters of fuel from Iranian smugglers to foreign customers.

 

The report said the oil tanker was intercepted in south of Iran’s Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

A U.S. defense official told The Associated Press this week that America “has suspicions” that Iran seized the oil tanker when it turned off its tracker in the Strait of Hormuz. An Emirati official told the AP the small oil tanker made no distress call before switching off its tracker.

 

 

 

https://www.aljazeer...9051711694.html

 

 

(Al Jazeera) The clock has begun ticking towards a crucial deadline for Europe to fulfill Iran's demands to deliver concrete financial incentives in order to stop the 2015 nuclear deal from falling apart.

But with the early-September date looming, the outlook for the landmark pact signed between Tehran and world powers is growing increasingly bleak.

 

"I am not very optimistic, because there is not much the EU can do to prevent the US sanctions," Ali Noorani, a Tokyo-based Iranian analyst, said, referring to the series of punishing measures reimposed by Washington following its unilateral withdrawal from the deal in May last year.

 

The accord, which was also signed by Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, had offered Iran relief from global sanctions in exchange for limits on its nuclear programme. US President Donald Trump said he withdrew because the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), did not do enough to curb Iran's ballistic missiles programme or address its support for regional armed groups.

 

His administration has since launched a "maximum pressure campaign" aimed at slashing Iran's oil exports to zero, including by threatening to target any companies or countries that skirt US sanctions and forcing Tehran to open negotiations on a broader new deal.

 

 

 

https://www.thenatio...e-gulf-1.887747

 

Conclusion:

 

(The National)…During a call with French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani urged Europe to speed up efforts to salvage the 2015 deal.

 

"Europe must accelerate its efforts to realise Iran's legitimate interests and bring about a ceasefire in the US economic war" against Iran, Mr Rouhani told Mr Macron.

 

"Iran is determined to keep open all options" to save the landmark deal, he said.

 

He also warned Mr Macron that "missed opportunities" would force Iran to drop further commitments under the deal, after it withdrew from some commitments on its nuclear programme in May.

 


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#26
Maximus

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Iran claims to have seized British oil tanker in strait of Hormuz

 

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed on Friday evening to have seized a British oil tanker, the Stena Impero, which suddenly veered off course and headed into Iranian waters.

 
The ship’s owners issued a statement saying that at 3pm GMT (7pm local time), the ship had been “approached by unidentified small crafts and a helicopter during transit of the strait of Hormuz while the vessel was in international waters”.
 
“We are presently unable to contact the vessel which is now heading north towards Iran,” the owners, Stena Bulk, and the ship’s managers, Northern Marine, said.
 
The Revolutionary Guards issued a statement saying they had seized the Stena Impero, citing international maritime law for their actions. Iran had been complaining bitterly about the detention by UK forces of an Iranian tanker two weeks ago off Gibraltar.

This is in addition to the incident Caltrek linked, along with an earlier attempt to seize another British tanker. Also, there seems to have been a Liberian tanker that was seized by Iran. 



#27
PhoenixRu

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^ ^ ^

 

First detained tanker - Stena Impero (under British flag, Swedish owners)

Second tanker - Mesdar (under Liberian flag, British owners)

 

After Britons illegally detained the Iranian tanker near Gibraltar, they have no moral right to pretend that all of this was "unexpected" or "unprovoked". Two can play this game...



#28
PhoenixRu

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Persia strong!

 

The detaining of British tanker filmed by Iranians: link



#29
caltrek

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The narrow issue of the claims around the alleged downing of the drone is actually becoming rather comical in nature. Consider:

 

 

Calling Trump Claim 'Delusional,' Iran Says US May Have Shot Down Its Own Drone by Mistake
 

 

https://www.commondr...n-drone-mistake

 

Introduction:

 

(Common Dreams) Iran released drone footage on Friday that it said refutes President Donald Trump's claim that the U.S. Navy downed an Iranian aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz.

As Reuters reported, Iranian state TV said "the drone had captured the footage and timing notations showed the drone was still filming after Washington said it had been downed."

 

Trump insisted Friday that he has "no doubt" the U.S. Navy downed an Iranian drone.

 

According to Al Jazeera, a Trump administration official said the Pentagon may release its own video of the incident.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#30
PhoenixRu

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The narrow issue of the claims around the alleged downing of the drone is actually becoming rather comical in nature.

 

The answer is simple:

 

Iran released drone footage on Friday that it said refutes President Donald Trump's claim that the U.S. Navy downed

 

Pentagon may release its own video of the incident.

 

Words are nothing (especially in modern world), and evidence is everything. Iran shows real footage, while USA only "may" do it. Therefore, by default, we should conclude that Iran telling the truth, and the USA is lying. Perhaps, they really shot down their own or allied drone. Unpleasant, but not such a rare mistake.



#31
caltrek

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Iran Says It Captured CIA-Trained Operatives

 

https://www.courthou...ned-operatives/

 

Introduction:

 

WASHINGTON (Courthouse News) – The Iranian Intelligence Ministry announced Monday it had captured 17 Iranian citizens it believes were trained by America’s CIA. President Donald Trump took to Twitter hours later to claim the reports were false.

 

“The Report of Iran capturing CIA spies is totally false. Zero truth,” Trump tweeted. “Just more lies and propaganda (like their shot down drone) put out by a Religious Regime that is Badly Failing and has no idea what to do. Their Economy is dead, and will get much worse. Iran is a total mess!” 

 

Speaking at a press conference in Tehran, the director of Iran’s counterespionage department said that some of the captured individuals have already been sentenced to death. Reports from the country’s state television network say the individuals were working at sensitive sites in the country’s nuclear-production facilities. It is unclear what will happen to the other suspected spies Iran has imprisoned.

 

tehran.jpg?resize=450%2C291

A woman walks past a mural in a sidewalk in downtown Tehran, Iran, Sunday, July 21, 2019.

(AP Photo/Vahid salemi)


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#32
Alislaws

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At this point whenever trump or the Whitehouse says anything, I just start assuming the opposite is true. 



#33
caltrek

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Calming the Persian Gulf: The experts on resolving the US-Iran standoff

 

https://thebulletin....-iran-standoff/

 

 

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) The US decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal (known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) has created an increasingly tense situation throughout the Middle East. After withdrawing from the JCPOA, the United States has embarked on a “maximum pressure” campaign that includes economic sanctions aimed at restricting trade with Iran by US firms and by companies of other signatories to the JCPOA. This campaign has negatively affected the Iranian economy and been met by Iranian countermeasures, including moves to increase uranium enrichment above levels dictated by the JCPOA, the downing of an American drone, and the seizure of a British oil tanker, apparently in response to the seizure of an Iranian tanker suspected of violating European Union sanctions.

 

As the situation now stands, the United States is demanding that Iran enter new negotiations on its nuclear program, its ballistic missile program, and a host of activities that US officials contend undermine peace across the Middle East. Iran has declined to negotiate, claiming that the United States violated the nuclear agreement, even though Iran was in compliance with its terms. Representatives of Iran and the five other remaining parties to the JCPOA—Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China—met in Vienna on Sunday in an attempt to keep the deal alive.

 

I have asked top experts from a variety of countries and with a variety of points of view to offer their best and most realistic advice on how the US-Iran impasse might be broken, so a war that neither the United States nor Iran seems eager to begin can be averted. That advice follows.

 

https://thebulletin....-a-good-crisis/

 

https://thebulletin....nuclear-crisis/

 

https://thebulletin....-confrontation/

 

https://thebulletin....ions-with-iran/

 

https://thebulletin....rait-of-hormuz/

 

https://thebulletin....ndling-options/


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#34
caltrek

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Meanwhile, Al Jazeera filed this update report:

 

US 'applied to seize' detained Iranian vessel in Gibraltar

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/seeks-seize-detained-iranian-vessel-gibraltar-190815095522189.html
 

Introduction:

 

(Al Jazeera) The United States has sought to seize the Iranian Grace 1 tanker in Gibraltar, which was commandeered by British Royal Marines in the Mediterranean last month, the Gibraltar government has said.

 

Just hours before Gibraltar was due to release the Grace 1 vessel, the US Department of Justice sought to seize it.

 

"The US Department of Justice has applied to seize the Grace 1 on a number of allegations which are now being considered," the Gibraltar government said in a statement on Thursday.

 

"The matter will return to the Supreme Court of Gibraltar at 4pm (14:00 GMT) today." 

 

The Gibraltarian court's chief justice, Anthony Dudley, made clear that were it not for the US move, "the ship would have sailed", the Gibraltar Chronicle reported.

 

Here is that same story as reported upon by the New York Times:

 

https://www.nytimes....tar-tanker.html


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#35
PhoenixRu

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Opinion (not mine, but I fully agree):

 

If the US will not disrupt this deal (British release of Iranian tanker), it will be possible to conclude that Iran has forced Britain to negotiate. This is a very significant event.  The former "owner of the seas" was straightforwardly humilitated: as it turned out, Britain was unable to ensure the safety of own ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and apparently didn’t want to become the cannon fodder for the anti-Iranian campaign.

 
Once again, it was experimentally proven that West in general and Britain in particular best understand the language of force and perceive verbal complains exclusively as a sign of weakness. Iranians are well aware of this, therefore, in relations with the United States they're taking the most tough position.

  • Yuli Ban and Outlook like this

#36
caltrek

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Court Rejects US Effort to Seize Oil Tanker
 

https://www.commondr...jects-us-effort

 

Introduction:

 

(Common Dreams) Spurning the Trump administration's last-minute attempt to block its release, the Gibraltar Supreme Court on Thursday ruled that an Iranian oil tanker seized by British forces last month must be allowed to set sail.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#37
Jessica

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Iran Spurns U.S. Talks as Rouhani Says No to Photo-Op With Trump

Source: Bloomberg


Top Iranian officials all but ruled out talks with the U.S. a day after President Donald Trump extended his most expansive offer yet to the Islamic Republic.

The U.S. must lift sanctions on Iran if it wants to negotiate, President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday. His foreign minister, Javad Zarif, said during a visit to China and Japan that “a meeting between Iran’s president and Trump is unimaginable.” Zarif made a surprise appearance this week on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France.

“We are interested in solving problems in a reasonable way, but we’re not interested in taking photos,” Rouhani said in a televised speech to officials in Tehran. “The key to changing the relationship is in Washington’s hands.”

Trump’s offer echoed his outreach to North Korea. That gesture resulted in three meetings with leader Kim Jong Un but no breakthrough deal.

 


Read more: https://www.bloomber...rnd=politics-vp



#38
Jessica

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Trump says the US wasn't involved in apparent launch pad explosion in Iran

Source: CNBC



President Donald Trump on Friday insisted that the U.S. had nothing to do with the apparent launch pad explosion of an Iranian rocket.

Trump’s denial also included what looked to be an aerial photograph of the launch site, complete with graphics and annotations describing the scene.

A U.S. defense official told CNBC that the picture in Trump’s tweet, which appeared to be a snapshot of a physical copy of the satellite image, was included in a Friday intelligence briefing. Experts told CNBC that the shot was likely never meant for public view.

“The United States of America was not involved in the catastrophic accident during final launch preparations for the Safir SLV Launch at Semnan Launch Site One in Iran,” Trump said in a tweet Friday afternoon.

 

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com..._source=twitter



#39
Jessica

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Iran goes further in breaching nuclear deal, IAEA report shows

Source: Reuters


VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran has gone further in breaching its nuclear deal with world powers, increasing its stock of enriched uranium and refining it to a greater purity than allowed, the U.N. atomic agency report said on Friday.

The quarterly report from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is policing the 2015 deal, confirms Iran is progressively backing out of the deal in retaliation for Washington’s withdrawal form the accord and renewal of sanctions that have hit Iranian oil sales.

Iran has said it will breach the deal’s limits on its nuclear activities one by one, ratcheting up pressure on parties who still hope to save it.

U.S. President Donald Trump has offered to hold talks with Iran on a broader deal but Tehran says first it must get relief from U.S. sanctions.

 

-snip-

WORLD NEWS AUGUST 30, 2019 / 11:03 AM / UPDATED 5 HOURS AGO
Francois Murphy
3 MIN READ


Read more: https://www.reuters....s-idUSKCN1VK1XH



#40
Jessica

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Iran warns U.S. after drone attacks on Saudi refineries

Source: Euronews & Reuters


Iran has warned the U.S. that its bases and aircraft carriers are within range of its missiles after Tehran was blamed for drone attacks on two oil refineries in Saudi Arabia.

The attacks on Saturday—which knocked out half of Saudi Arabia's oil output and caused massive fires—were claimed by Yemen's Houthis, a rebel group aligned with Iran and currently fighting a war against the Saudi-led coalition which has seen a spate of similar attacks.

A commander in Iran's revolutionary guard hit back on Sunday, warning that U.S. bases within 2,000 kilometres of the country were "within range of our missiles". He was also quoted as saying that Iran "has already been ready for a fully-fledged war."

Later, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi, speaking on state TV, dismissed the U.S. claim as "pointless".

 

<more>

Read more: https://www.euronews...ies-saudi-media







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