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Iran Crisis Thread

Iran Persian Gulf Trump war

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#41
Jessica

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Trump says US 'locked and loaded depending on verification' of attack on Saudi oil field

Source: CNN



President Donald Trump on Sunday evening tweeted that ... "Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!" Trump said.
...
Trump tweeted ...Sunday that it is "incorrect" to say he is "willing to meet with Iran, 'No Condition,'" a contradiction of his own administration. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday that the President, "has said he would sit down with (Iranian President Hassan) Rouhani with no conditions."...
...
Three CNN military experts have examined the private satellite photos.
Ret. Col. Cedric Leighton, who is an intelligence expert with a focus in imagery, said the images do help support the Trump administration's claim that the drones likely came from Iraq or Iran, but cautioned that they're not definitive... Ret. Gen. Mark Hertling said the images "really don't show anything, other than pretty good accuracy on the strike of the oil tanks. Ret. Adm. John Kirby echoed this point, stating "there is nothing I see in these pictures which confirms a launch from any particular location."
"I'm struck by the precision of the strikes. Almost pin-prick," Kirby said. "Certainly possible with (unmanned aerial vehicles). But again, that doesn't really confirm anything."

Rouhani did not specifically reference the attack on the Saudi Arabia's oil facilities in an address on Iran's Press TV Sunday but did accuse Americans of running a "war operation" by "supporting the UAE and Saudi Arabia, transferring weapons, and providing intelligence."

 



Read more: https://www.cnn.com/...iraq/index.html



#42
Jessica

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Oil prices jump the most ever after Saudi strike

Source: Bloomberg


Oil surged the most ever after a strike that wiped out about half of Saudi Arabia’s output capacity heightened concern about more destabilization in the world’s most important crude-producing region.

In an extraordinary start to trading on Monday, London’s Brent futures leaped almost $12 in the seconds after the open, the most in dollar terms since their launch in 1988. Prices have since pulled back about half of that initial gain but, with Saudi officials downplaying prospects for a rapid recovery, crude is heading for the biggest advance in almost three years.

For oil markets, it’s the worst sudden disruption ever. The attacks that damaged a key processing complex and one of the kingdom’s marquee fields highlight the vulnerability of the world’s biggest exporter. The crisis also means a “new geopolitical premium” of about $5 a barrel, Mizuho Securities USA’s Paul Sankey wrote in a note.

“We have never seen a supply disruption and price response like this in the oil market,” said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG. “Political-risk premiums are now back on the oil-market agenda.”

 


Read more: https://www.msn.com/...lgH9?li=BBnbfcN



#43
Erowind

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Whoever did it they make good eco-"terrorists"

#44
PhoenixRu2020

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Saudi revenge (dumb and cruel, as always) for recent humiliations:

 

Iran Says Missiles Struck Oil Tanker Near Saudi Red Sea Port

 

An Iranian-owned oil tanker was struck by two missiles off the Saudi port of Jeddah on Friday, Iranian state television reported, quoting the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) which owns the vessel. The tanker was set ablaze and suffered heavy damage about 60 miles (96 km) from Jeddah, according to Iranian media. A leaking from its hull was reportedly brought under control later in the morning, according to press agency IRNA. 

 

 

1.7967361.3004955018.jpg



#45
caltrek

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In a local library, I noticed a front page article in The New York Times national edition for December 2, 2019, about protests breaking out in Iran.  The Vox article linked below is on the same topic and says much of the same thing. The title of this thread suits this story, in that it concerns potential internal crisis that the country seems to be facing. Still, it is about a decidedly different type of crisis than earlier stories discussed.  A crisis that is of a more domestic orientation. Yet, it is linked to the sanctions that were very much a part of the earlier crisis stories.

 

Why economic hardships finally sparked Iranian protests

 

https://www.vox.com/...ests-gas-prices

 

Introduction:

 

(Vox) As the internet slowly flickers back on across Iran, videos of violent clashes between protesters and security forces are bursting into the public eye. In the days following a fuel price hike on November 15, thousands of Iranians took to the streets to demonstrate their dissatisfaction with the decision.

 

The 50 percent increase in fuel prices, which historically were highly subsidized, came without warning. Two days after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that the country faced a deficit that amounted to nearly two-thirds of the yearly $45 billion budget, Iranian state television broadcast his decision to increase gas prices for nearly 60 million Iranians.

 

“It’s a little difficult to tell why [the Iranian regime] did what they did at this time with the subsidies,” Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington, told me.

 

 

Conclusion:

 

Maloney described the scenes of protest coming out of Iran since the internet revival as “unlike anything I could imagine.” In its current leaderless state, she doesn’t see the eruption of the current protests turning into a full-blown revolution — yet.

 

“I’m not sure where [leadership] will come from,” Maloney said. “But, we will see continuing episodes like this because the Iranian government has some tough decisions to make going forward, decisions that aren’t politically popular in this period of high pressure against them.”

 

 

 

A common theme that emerges concerning many recent protests around the global is the trigger:  a hike in gas prices.  Very similar to the spark in the protests in France, as many of you may recall.  I think there have also been protests in Latin America sparked by such similar triggers.  

 

Edit: Al Jazeera was also reporting on the same story as early as November 15, 2019: https://www.aljazeer...8060831036.html

 

The Al Jazeera story notes that the price hikes were "aimed at raising funds for cash handouts to Iran's poorest citizens."


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#46
caltrek

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Speaking of Iran, I just came across a fascinating article in The Intercept about leaked documents concerning the influence of Iran in Iraq’s government.  One thing that immediately caught my attention was that the article was produced in partnership with The New York Times.  The analogy, perhaps a little misleading, that immediately came to my mind would have been an article in the middle of the cold war that was developed as a result of collaborative efforts between Pravda and Germany’s Der Spiegel.  Not something that you would really expect to happen.

 

This partnership apparently came about due to the desire of The Intercept to make sure that they were not dealing with a hoax by relying on the resources of the Times to help verify the authenticity of the documents in question. 

   

The article in The Intercept, in my estimate using word count features in Word, is over 5,500 words in length.  In comparison, I always make sure that my excerpts and introductions never exceed 375 words in length.   The excerpt below is about 279 words. So if you do want to read the entire Intercept article, I would recommend you set aside a block of time needed to read this relatively lengthy article.  If you like spy stories and related intrigue, or just have a high curiosity of Iran and Iraq, you may find the read worth the time.

 

To help you decide, here is the headline, link, and some key excerpts:

 

A Spy Complex Revealed

 

https://theintercept...raq-spy-cables/

 

Extract:

 

(The Intercept) Now leaked Iranian documents offer a detailed portrait of just how aggressively Tehran has worked to embed itself into Iraqi affairs. The documents are contained in an archive of secret Iranian intelligence cables obtained by The Intercept and shared with the New York Times for this article.

 

They also detail the extent to which Iraq has fallen under Iranian influence since the American invasion in 2003, which transformed Iraq into a gateway for Iranian power, connecting the Islamic Republic’s geography of dominance from the shores of the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea.

 

…the documents show how Iran, at nearly every turn, has outmaneuvered the United States in the contest for influence.

 

The roughly 700 pages of leaked reports were sent anonymously to The Intercept, which translated them from Persian to English and shared them with the Times. The Intercept and the Times verified the authenticity of the documents but do not know who leaked them. The Intercept communicated over encrypted channels with the source, who declined to meet with a reporter. In these anonymous messages, the source said that they wanted to “let the world know what Iran is doing in my country Iraq.”

 

But while Iran may have bested the United States in the contest for influence in Baghdad, it has struggled to win popular support in the Iraqi south. Now, as the last six weeks of protests make clear, it is facing unexpectedly strong pushback. Across the south, Iranian-backed Iraqi political parties are seeing their headquarters burned and their leading operatives assassinated, an indication that Iran may have underestimated the Iraqi desire for independence not just from the United States, but also from its neighbor.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#47
MarcZ

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Huge breaking news coming out of Iraq right now. One of Iran's most senior military figures General Qaseem Suleimani has been assassinated by an American airstrike. This is threatening to plunge the whole reason into a major war, Iran will likely respond with force within/hours days.

 

Also hearing reports that another major political figure the head of Iraq's Shiite PMU force Mohammed Redha. This could lead to a civil war in Iraq...

 

More to come... this is going to be a huge story in the coming days.

 

 

https://www.aljazeer...2232817666.html

 



#48
funkervogt

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What a mess it is over there. Iraq is truly the gift that keeps on giving.



#49
waitingforthe2030s

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There will be no war. Iran knows they can’t win.

I'm a radical demo-publiacrat.

 

This is Scatman's world, and we're living in it.


#50
Outlook

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What a mess it is over there. Iraq is truly the gift that keeps on giving.

It's fun bringing up this image every time shit goes up in Iraq that'll inevitably lead to more US intervention in the ME. 16 years since then too.

 

Spoiler


Outlook's secret song of the ~week: https://youtu.be/GMYezR1cwFA


#51
MarcZ

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There will be no war. Iran knows they can’t win.

That's what you think. The US could also not win such a war.

 

https://en.wikipedia..._Challenge_2002



#52
Outlook

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There will be no war. Iran knows they can’t win.

That's what you think. The US could also not win such a war.

 

https://en.wikipedia..._Challenge_2002

 

There's gotta be better evidence than some outdated war game.


Outlook's secret song of the ~week: https://youtu.be/GMYezR1cwFA


#53
MarcZ

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It isn't outdated the same scenario applies today. The goal of Iran would be to eliminate US military presence from the Persian Gulf. Something that is VERY possible for Iran to do.



#54
tierbook

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It isn't outdated the same scenario applies today. The goal of Iran would be to eliminate US military presence from the Persian Gulf. Something that is VERY possible for Iran to do.

The only way for iran to eliminate the US military presence in the gulf is to destroy the reason we are present. This isn't Vietnam, Iran will be on the table as a target for strikes.



#55
Yuli Ban

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https://twitter.com/...924762827046918

"At the direction of the President, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization.
General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region. General Soleimani and his Quds Force were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more. He had orchestrated attacks on coalition bases in Iraq over the last several months - including the attack on December 27th - culminating in the death and wounding of additional American and Iraqi personnel. General Soleimani also approved the attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad that took place this week.
This strike was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans. The United States will continue to take all necessary action to protect our people and our interests wherever they are around the world."

So he was actively targeted by US forces.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#56
Erowind

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Iran has land trade, modern enough military equipment purpose built for countering American forces and complete terrain advantage. Their supply lines to Russia and Asia are secure for now. They don't need to remove U.S presence from the gulf entirely they only need to make it too dangerous to send trade vessels through the straight of Hormuz. 

 

https://www.research...in_world_system

 

Pg. 19 of that publication

 

aeFkvyg.png

 

Excuses of generals being bombed and Americans falsely accusing the Iranians of targeting trade vessels aside, if war breaks out, it will be a resource war. America is attempting to maintain it's empire and the straight of Hormuz has far too much oil flowing through for America to simply let another power control it. The people of all countries will suffer for the ambition of petty men as usual. Especially those of Iraq and Iran. 



#57
10 year march

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This may well be the beginning of the most significant chain of events in 2020

#58
wjfox

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Remember when they said they wouldn't elect Hillary because she would start another war?

#59
10 year march

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How long do you believe it will take for this to turn into a official war?



#60
wjfox

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Reported Iranian response:

https://twitter.com/...6057897987?s=19

Iranian sources in Iran are warning that killing Gen. Qasem Sulaimani spells war. "Official reaction will begin with a strike," one says.

 

 

Oh, and...

 

 

gt4Rlw9.jpg







Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Iran, Persian Gulf, Trump, war

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