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Quantum supremacy by the end of this year?


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#1
funkervogt

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In December 2018, scientists at Google AI ran a calculation on Google’s best quantum processor. They were able to reproduce the computation using a regular laptop. Then in January, they ran the same test on an improved version of the quantum chip. This time they had to use a powerful desktop computer to simulate the result. By February, there were no longer any classical computers in the building that could simulate their quantum counterparts. The researchers had to request time on Google’s enormous server network to do that.

 

...
 
So far, quantum supremacy has proved elusive — sometimes seemingly around the corner, but never yet at hand. But if Neven’s law holds, it can’t be far away. Neven wouldn’t say exactly when he anticipates the Google team will achieve quantum supremacy, but he allowed that it could happen soon.
 
“We often say we think we will achieve it in 2019,” Neven said. “The writing is on the wall.”

https://www.quantama...-rise-20190618/

 

https://en.wikipedia...antum_supremacy



#2
starspawn0

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Might be true... but real-world impacts are going to be a long ways away.  
 
I saw a Tweet the other day making fun of that Quanta Magazine piece, basically saying they want to be the next person to name a Moore's Law-like hype trend.  It's not a bad piece, overall, though.
 
Impacts on AI are going to be minimal for at least many years:

https://www.zdnet.co...not-quantum-ai/

"Right now, if we look at work in QML, people are experimenting with things such as, could we build a Support Vector Machine (SVM) or a Boltzmann Machine — can we build these existing canonical machine learning models — in the quantum machine," observes Fernick. She is referring to two older models of machine learning that emerged in the 1980s and the 1990s, prior to today's deep learning systems.

....

However, attempts in NISQ to speed up a shallow machine learning task, such as SVM or Boltzmann Machines, may not really be achieving much, she reflected.

"Quantum computing can make certain things faster if the underlying math has a structure that is exploitable via quantum and we have the right quantum algorithms," she says. "Before we jump on the bandwagon, we need to ask, What are the true algorithmic innovations?"


And crypto people are not in a panic. I worked with some students somewhat recently with ties to an information security group, and I asked them about QCs. They said the people they work with are not the slightest bit worried -- they see the impact as being at least 15 years away.
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#3
Zaphod

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I have a feeling Amara's law may be particularly applicable here. We are not going to see any real utility of quantum computers in the short term, but in the long term they may prove surprisingly important to many fields. 



#4
funkervogt

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Might be true... but real-world impacts are going to be a long ways away.  
 
I saw a Tweet the other day making fun of that Quanta Magazine piece, basically saying they want to be the next person to name a Moore's Law-like hype trend.  It's not a bad piece, overall, though.
 
Impacts on AI are going to be minimal for at least many years:

https://www.zdnet.co...not-quantum-ai/
 

"Right now, if we look at work in QML, people are experimenting with things such as, could we build a Support Vector Machine (SVM) or a Boltzmann Machine — can we build these existing canonical machine learning models — in the quantum machine," observes Fernick. She is referring to two older models of machine learning that emerged in the 1980s and the 1990s, prior to today's deep learning systems.

....

However, attempts in NISQ to speed up a shallow machine learning task, such as SVM or Boltzmann Machines, may not really be achieving much, she reflected.

"Quantum computing can make certain things faster if the underlying math has a structure that is exploitable via quantum and we have the right quantum algorithms," she says. "Before we jump on the bandwagon, we need to ask, What are the true algorithmic innovations?"


And crypto people are not in a panic. I worked with some students somewhat recently with ties to an information security group, and I asked them about QCs. They said the people they work with are not the slightest bit worried -- they see the impact as being at least 15 years away.

 

True, there have been failed predictions before. From late 2017:

 

 

That feat – performing calculations impossible by classical means – is a holy grail of quantum computing: a demonstration of “quantum supremacy”. If you asked experts a few years ago when they expected this to happen, they’d have been likely to say in one or two decades. Earlier this year, some experts I polled had revised their forecast to within two to five years. But Martinis’s team at Google recently announced that they hope to achieve quantum supremacy by the end of this year.

https://www.newstate...ll-change-world


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