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The Geopolitics of Artificial Intelligence

artificial intelligence AI geopolitics China Russia labor society data science big data economics

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#1
Yuli Ban

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The Geopolitics of Artificial Intelligence

Something stood out of the ordinary during a speech by China’s president, Xi Jinping, in January 2018. Behind Xi, on a bookshelf, were two books on artificial intelligence (AI). Why were those books there? Similar to 2015, when Russia “accidentally” aired designs for a new weapon, the placement of the books may not have been an accident. Was China sending a message?
If it was, perhaps, it was this: For decades, China has been operating in an Americanized-world. To escape, China is turning to AI.
 
By 2030, China wants to be the world’s leading AI power, with an AI industry valued at $150 billion. How does China plan to achieve this?
Take health care. Ping An, a large Chinese conglomerate, has unveiled AI doctors. It has launched clinics known as “One-Minute Clinic,” where AI doctors diagnose symptoms and propose medications. Within three years, Ping An plans to build hundreds of thousands of these clinics across China.
Could China export 10,000 AI doctors to Russia? Such a move would transform geopolitics.
The biggest impact is that it would shift the China-Russia relationship, from energy and currency, areas that the U.S. can influence, to Chinese AI, over which the U.S. has no control. The AI doctors may make Russian society more China-centric, and future generations in Russia may be more familiar with Ping An than with IBM or Intel.
There are other geopolitical implications too.
 

The U.S. should not try to stop China from taking its AI around the world. It’s too late for that. Instead, the U.S. should focus on controlling how Chinese AI behaves.
 
To do this, the U.S. should create the world’s first “AI Trade Organization” or AITO. Just like in the 20th century, when the U.S. created the World Trade Organization (WTO) to govern traditional trade, AITO would govern AI trade.
 
AITO would establish the international rules, ethics and standards for AI.
 
Of course, China, and others, may refuse to join AITO, for obvious reasons. But, those nations are not the target. The target is countries that China could take its AI to in the future.

As nations compete around AI, they are part of the biggest battle for global power since World War II. Except, this battle is not about land or resources. It is about data, defense and economy. And, ultimately, how these variables give a nation more control over the world.
 
This is not a cold war. It is an algorithmic war.
 
Except this battle is not just between the U.S. and China. There are also countries like India, Russia, Israel and Japan, each of whom have their own ambition and vision.
 
The U.S. and China. though, stand to lose and gain the most. For the U.S., AI could lead to a de-Americanized world. For China, AI could truly ring in the Chinese century. Perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin’s words are more important than ever before, when he warned that the country that controls AI will control the world.
 
The question is however, was this just a casual statement, or as with the AI books present during the Chinese president's speech, was Russia’s president sending a message?
 
 
Here's an angle of AI that we've touched upon many times before: AI impacts on geopolitics. 
It, along with synthetic media, are solid areas in what I consider to be "Near-Term AI". Whenever we talk about AI impacting politics and society, we almost always default to general AI in Skynet scenarios, where the machines dominate nations and become presidents. That's more "Long-Term AI"— stuff beyond 2040. Near-Term AI involves the impacts of AI from the present to roughly 2030, give or take a few years. This, of course, is the age of "AXI", where neural networks are becoming capable of multi-purpose functionality. This is the age of "cognitive agents" and "collaborative data agents" that are basically facsimiles of you online, monitoring your health and content.
This is when we've mastered the narrow AI field and no longer have to take brute-force shortcuts to make things work.
 
Likewise, AI impacts on politics is going to a tale of optimization and subterfuge in industry. It's AI networks developed by media and retail corporations (e.g. Facebook, Alibaba, Alphabet) used to subtly alter hearts and minds. It's algorithms becoming part of infrastructure and medicine. 

  • caltrek and starspawn0 like this

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#2
starspawn0

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I thought the discussion about AI doctors was interesting.  It hadn't occurred to me that China could export them to Russia, and forge a stronger trading partnership in the process.  It could have a big effect on Russian health, too, extending lifespan significantly.

 

Economists like Paul Krugman don't seem that interested in thinking about the economic implications of AI.  They treat it like just another technology, and roll their eyes at mention of tech unemployment.  Because I respect Krugman, it causes me to question my own beliefs on this.  "Could I be missing something?  Or are these guys too old and don't keep up with the latest developments?", I wonder.  Krugman, it seems, thinks AI is improving very gradually, based on the accuracy of the digital transcription service he uses.  I can't shake the feeling that he is grossly underestimating the rate of change.


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#3
caltrek

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Here are a couple more articles relevant to the subject:

 

 

https://www.politico...i-china-1598442

 

https://theintercept...l-intelligence/


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#4
caltrek

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Will China lead the world in AI by 2030?

 

https://www.nature.c...586-019-02360-7

 

Introduction:

 

(Nature) China not only has the world’s largest population and looks set to become the largest economy — it also wants to lead the world when it comes to artificial intelligence (AI).

 

In 2017, the Communist Party of China set 2030 as the deadline for this ambitious AI goal, and, to get there, it laid out a bevy of milestones to reach by 2020. These include making significant contributions to fundamental research, being a favoured destination for the world’s brightest talents and having an AI industry that rivals global leaders in the field.

 

As this first deadline approaches, researchers note impressive leaps in the quality of China’s AI research. They also predict a shift in the nation’s ability to retain homegrown talent. That is partly because the government has implemented some successful retainment programmes and partly because worsening diplomatic and trade relations mean that the United States — its main rival when it comes to most things, including AI — has become a less-attractive destination.

 

“If America loses its openness edge, then the country risks pushing AI talents right back into the arms of its competitors, including China,” says AI analyst Joy Dantong Ma at the Paulson Institute, a think tank in Chicago, Illinois, aimed at fostering US–China relations.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#5
caltrek

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International AI ethics panel must be independent

 

https://www.nature.c...586-019-02491-x

 

Introduction:

 

(Nature) China wants to be the world’s leader in artificial intelligence (AI) by 2030. The United States has a strategic plan to retain the top spot, and, by some measures, already leads in influential papers, hardware and AI talent. Other wealthy nations are also jockeying for a place in the world AI league.

 

A kind of AI arms race is under way, and governments and corporations are pouring eye-watering sums into research and development. The prize, and it’s a big one, is that AI is forecast to add around US$15 trillion to the world economy by 2030 — more than four times the 2017 gross domestic product of Germany. That’s $15 trillion in new companies, jobs, products, ways of working and forms of leisure, and it explains why countries are competing so vigorously for a slice of the pie.

 

For all the upsides, AI carries risks, from how facial-recognition technologies track and identify individuals, to the manipulation of elections. Yet despite vigorous academic and public discussion, governments have been slow to prioritize the ethics of AI. The United States and China are too preoccupied with the top prize, and show little appetite to work with other countries and develop codes of practice.

 

This leadership vacuum, however, has created opportunities for others. The national research agencies of France, Germany and Japan have teamed up on a call for research proposals on AI that incorporates an ethical dimension. The United Kingdom has created a new centre for data ethics and innovation. Officials from Canada and France, meanwhile, have been working to establish an International Panel on Artificial Intelligence (IPAI), to be launched at the G7 summit of world leaders in Biarritz, France, from 24 to 26 August.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls






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