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Proposed project: Analysis of Ray Kurzweil's 2019 predictions


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#1
funkervogt

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Hi fellow futurists,
 
Is anyone here interested in doing an in-depth analysis of the accuracy of Ray Kurzweil's predictions for 2019? I'm thinking that three or four people and I could form a temporary work group to do this, and we'd start on January 1, 2020. We would review all of Kurzweil's predictions for 2019, and decide whether they proved accurate or not. This would mean going back the the original texts and transcripts of books, articles, and interviews he has given over the last 21 years, deciding upon the meaning of each prediction (he has been known to be lawyerly about interpreting his own predictions later on), and then making evidence-backed conclusions about whether they proved true. 
 
Additionally, we would re-examine the predictions he made for 2009 and see how many of them that failed to pass by that year have come true by 2019. This thread convinces me it would be a useful exercise: https://www.futureti...09-is-our-2019/
 
I'm thinking our final product would be a Google Doc that lists every relevant prediction he made, quoted verbatim, then any comments from us about how it might be ambiguously worded, and then a judgement from us, backed by links to sources and official statistics backing our decision. If we judge that one of his predictions failed, we would explain whether that happened because or market forces or slower than expected technological development. For example, we could probably build full-body tactile sex suits that let you have relations with virtual partners, but there's no demand for them because of high costs and social stigmas.
 
At the end, there would be a Conclusion paragraph. 
 
Who's with me?


  • Zaphod, Casey, Yuli Ban and 2 others like this

#2
funkervogt

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Preliminarily, here's something that supports Kurzweil's prediction that "AI artists" will exist by 2019:

 

https://www.fanatica...r-record-label/



#3
Zaphod

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This is a good idea. We need more in-depth analyses of futurists predictions.

 

I'm not sure I will be able to make the time though, but could offer feedback and suggestions. 






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