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Will Microsoft Windows become obsolete in 2030?

Windows 10 2030 obsolescence

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Poll: Microsoft Windows obsolescence (9 member(s) have cast votes)

Will Microsoft Windows become obsolete in 2030?

  1. Yes (1 votes [11.11%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 11.11%

  2. No (4 votes [44.44%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 44.44%

  3. Not sure (4 votes [44.44%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 44.44%

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#1
GTrang

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Windows 7 will have its EOL (end of life) in less than 3 months, on January 14, 2020 (for normal purposes; the ESU (extended security updates) will end the same day as Windows 8.1). Windows 8.1 will have its EOL on January 10, 2023. Finally, Windows 10 will have its EOL on October 14, 2025, for most editions. For the 2016 LTSB and 2019 LTSC editions, the EOL dates will occur on October 13, 2026, and January 9, 2029, respectively.

So, do you think that Microsoft Windows will become obsolete in 2030, which is less than 50 years after the release of the first version in 1985? Please answer yes or no. If you don't have an opinion, then select "Not sure".
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#2
Guyverman1990

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Microsoft could be obsolete in 2030.

#3
Creed

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Microsoft is so entrenched in the desktop market that I can't see Windows becoming obsolete unless x86 computers become irrelevant altogether. If the desktop does become irrelevant I think it will be replaced by VR/AR, but 2030 seems too optimistic for them to have complete dominance.



#4
Erowind

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I think it's more likely ad markets collapse and take companies like google and facebook with them. Microsoft is more diversified and still dominates personal computing. I'd be surprised to see them gone by 2030. 



#5
Creed

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Interesting. It does seem that events like the adpocalypse paint a worrying picture for the future of the ad model. On a related note, do you think something like Elizabeth Warren's plan to break up Amazon, Facebook, and Google might happen in the next decade?


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#6
Cloned

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https://www.windowsc...com/windows-10x
 

I'm impressed.


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#7
Erowind

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Interesting. It does seem that events like the adpocalypse paint a worrying picture for the future of the ad model. On a related note, do you think something like Elizabeth Warren's plan to break up Amazon, Facebook, and Google might happen in the next decade?

 

Maybe. It's harder for me to make a prediction on that. I think it depends on how frustrated Americans get with their government and how far the public pushes the overton window of American politics either left or right. If a candidate is far enough from the center on either side and they have some congressional support it will happen. Outsider right wingers tend to target monopolies on anti-trust violations and disrupting the free market. Outsider leftists target them on the grounds that megacorporations of any kind extracting value for private profit is immoral. It just so happens that monopolies are usually the first in the firing line because they are generally the largest corporations around. 

 

Otherwise I'd expect these companies to persist as long as their business models remain solvent. On the ad thing again. You're right, the adpocalypse is a symptom of the market being irrational. Data driven internet advertising generally doesn't actually work, especially in younger populations. So the market is in this irrational place right now where data brokers sell data to advertisers who advertise for products that don't actually sell. Which causes a race to the bottom in ad revenue prices--why youtubers make less and less year over year--as the ads become increasingly worthless. Eventually the market will correct and data brokers will wake up to advertisers who won't buy their useless data who themselves can't sell ad packages to producers who won't buy them.  

 

Amazon is the outlier here because unlike google, facebook and most other tech giants their ad platform is integrated within the most dominant consumer goods marketplace in the country. Which means their ad platform does actually have some weight, if only marginally, and would be more resistant to a major market correction that is likely to knock out companies like facebook and google. This just brings us back to the monopoly problem though because Amazon would then eat up whats left of the market to the best of its ability. 



#8
Alislaws

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...On the ad thing again. You're right, the adpocalypse is a symptom of the market being irrational. Data driven internet advertising generally doesn't actually work, especially in younger populations. So the market is in this irrational place right now where data brokers sell data to advertisers who advertise for products that don't actually sell. Which causes a race to the bottom in ad revenue prices--why youtubers make less and less year over year--as the ads become increasingly worthless. Eventually the market will correct and data brokers will wake up to advertisers who won't buy their useless data who themselves can't sell ad packages to producers who won't buy them...

 

Just wanted to chime in, I worked in digital (specifically mobile) advertising for a few years and some of our most successful campaigns had a Return on Investment (ROI) of 30 to 1 (i.e. spend £1 get £30 back) As I understand it the adpocalypse is due to the steadily diminishing click rate of everyone who uses digital/mobile basically the longer you have been using it, the less likely you will click any ad, and we have all the richest people signed up at this point, so returns will diminish in future. 

 

Mobile was in a better position as it was less mature than digital, but digital was still worth doing (if done right/well) so i'd say digital advertising is currently​ worth paying for but is becoming less so. For now though many people who only started using the internet later in life will click and buy from Ads, it seems weird to anyone who grew up with it, since everyone I know ignores all ads automatically. 

 

I also don't really know anyone who uses micro-transactions on computer or mobile games, but that's a $multibillion industry for some reason?! and Apparently many of these people are both older and younger customers (i'm in my early 30s). That business model is likely here to stay though I think. 

 

Microsoft are currently trying to move into advertising (new windows always online with its own appstore etc!) but it would take total failure of the HoloLens and AR, along with the rapid end of desktop/Laptop corporate market. 

 

I think if the corporate PC market drys up it will be because it is replaced by something, probably AR. If its replaced by AR Microsoft have both the experience (HoloLens), toolset (Microsoft office is tough to beat!) and funding to ensure they are a leader in this space, so i'd be v. surprised to see them gone by 2030!

 

(also Microsoft cloud is doing better now after being very behind)

Cloud%20Q418v2.jpg


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