Anywho let's examine these predictions.
- The mass retirement of the Baby Boomers will cause the cost of capital to quadruple in 2022. (11:00 mark)
- At least in the U.S., the resulting fiscal meltdown will be fixed by Millennial productivity and spending. (12:00 mark)
- Hard Brexit is inevitable (27:00)
- China's economy will start contracting within five years. The problem will be mostly driven by the aging of the population. They will enter a deflationary spiral like Japan did. (37:00 mark)
- Thanks to Brexit and unsympathetic U.S. trade policies, London's financial sector will shrink by 3/4. Most of the lost jobs will go to the U.S. or European mainland. (45:00 mark)
- Trump has 90% odds of being reelected. (47:00 mark)
1. The retirement of Baby Boomers is a minor element in the coming economic crisis. Any analysis that doesn't focus primarily on debt collateralization and global supply chain disruption caused by climate crisis isn't going to get very far. Capital cost very well may quadruple but it won't be because of a glut of retirees in whole. As resources become scarcer cost will rise. Cost will also rise as company after company gets its lending status downgraded as the economy starts defaulting on its debt bubble.
2. Growth economics will not solve either of these problem. Predicting that consumerism from one of the poorest generations in modern U.S history during the greatest resource crisis in world history will save the economy is a flawed analysis. The United States is an imperial country that is as rich as it is because it goes from country to country pillaging natural resources and extracting value from slave labour. When one country collapses/the cost of resource extraction exceeds the cost of investment the U.S moves onto another country which hasn't been pillaged fully yet. All imperial countries do this for the record, Japan, UK, China, etc under the disguise of "development" and "foreign aid." As debt collateralization unravels and climate crisis causes resources to become scarcer and more difficult to extract collapse will start seeping into imperial countries aswell. The United States cannot maintain its wealth in a state of autarky should global trade wind down significantly, and it will. All imperial countries are to Trantor as Trantor is to the rest of the Empire in The Foundation Trilogy. Cut the resource extraction and it all comes tumbling down. If we dared to add a Marxist analysis into the mix the whole picture gets even more bleak for America with the the tendency for the rate of profit to fall encroaching on the world economy over the next century aswell.
3. I tend to focus on the long term so events like Brexit don't really register on my radar tbh. His argument based on historical precedent from WWII is true but I don't know if the U.S is that vindictive towards the British today and Trump's protectionism as much as it's caused an upset isn't hard hawkish protectionism as one would think of protectionism a century ago. For example, this New NAFTA deal Trump's administration pushed recently would have never been even suggested by a real protectionist. I also know that the City of London is far more powerful than people give it credit for. The sheer amount of capital that flows through the City of London is staggering and I would be surprised to see that capital go unleveraged in any negotiation to such a level that finance leaves London at such a high rate. Hard Brexit maybe, I'm skeptical but I'm not knowledgeable enough to speak with confidence on this one.
4. China's economy has incredible room to grow still and an aging population won't matter for the time being. The rural and western portions of the country are still mostly undeveloped with nearly 60% of their population still living on less than 10$ a day. The demographic shift here shows these people moving to the Developed Eastern and Southern coasts as well as metropolitan cores. Even with an aging population the labour pool will still be plenty large enough for growth. This same form of development happened in the United States from the late 1800s clear through to the modern day (as in many countries) with it slowing in the past few decades for the U.S. China is very much still in the early stages of this industrialization and development. Not the beginning, but climate crisis aside I'd expect Chinese growth to continue for decades to come. As for the maritime trade argument, China is building the belt and road initiative for a reason and I don't see reason to suspect it will fail, especially considering how much of it is overland and which the United States nor Asian maritime states could leverage dominion over. It's also dubious to suggest all those maritime states would be hostile to China when many of them will likely play off both sides or even become Chinese allies if the Chinese offer greater growth potential.
https://chinapower.c...a-middle-class/ Source for the site is Pew Research, make of that what you will. I mostly trust economic data from Pew Research where I wouldn't trust them to explain Cuban democracy for reasons similar with other institutions that I've stated before. Intent and funding sources must be questioned as always.
5. All depends on prediction 3 pans out.
6. That depends entirely on whether Bernie wins the primary or not. If he does it's anyone's game, if not than I expect Trump to have high odds of winning, although, maybe not that high.