Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!
Photo

Peter Zeihan's geopolitical predictions

zeihan geopolitics

  • Please log in to reply
9 replies to this topic

#1
funkervogt

funkervogt

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 933 posts

Zeihan is a famous geopolitical expert, a realist in that field, and a bit of an American chauvinist. In this lecture, he makes the following predictions: 

  1. The mass retirement of the Baby Boomers will cause the cost of capital to quadruple in 2022. (11:00 mark)
  2. At least in the U.S., the resulting fiscal meltdown will be fixed by Millennial productivity and spending. (12:00 mark)
  3. Hard Brexit is inevitable (27:00)
  4. China's economy will start contracting within five years. The problem will be mostly driven by the aging of the population. They will enter a deflationary spiral like Japan did. (37:00 mark)
  5. Thanks to Brexit and unsympathetic U.S. trade policies, London's financial sector will shrink by 3/4. Most of the lost jobs will go to the U.S. or European mainland. (45:00 mark)
  6. Trump has 90% odds of being reelected. (47:00 mark)
 
The lecture is from the 72nd CFA Institute Annual Conference, held in May 2019. 


#2
starspawn0

starspawn0

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,614 posts
I've never heard of this guy before.  He might be good at what he does, and offer important insights -- I don't know enough about geopolitics to say.

But there are others that occupy a similar strata -- let's call it "Class B" -- who are futurists and consultants that most people never hear about, that he superficially reminds me of.  They get invited to prognosticate at the local Hilton Hotel for a convention with a title like, "American Power in the Age of Turmoil"; admission is $1,000, and you get a signed copy of some guy's book, along with an outing to a bar where everyone orders shots and drinks with little umbrellas.  And it's attended by yet more people you've never heard of -- sales consultants, people with titles like "East Coast director of team management success", mid-level management types, and so on.  Douglas Adams described these people in his Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy:
 
https://hitchhikers....rk_Fleet_Ship_B
 

The Golgafrinchan Ark Fleet Ship B was a way of removing the basically useless citizens from the planet of Golgafrincham. A variety of stories were formed about the doom of the planet, such as blowing up, crashing into the sun or being eaten by a mutant star goat. The ship was filled with all the middlemen of Golgafrincham, such as the telephone sanitisers, account executives, hairdressers, tired TV producers, insurance salesmen, personnel officers, security guards, public relations executives, and management consultants.

Ark Fleet ships A and C were supposed to carry the people who ruled, thought, or actually did useful work.

The ship was programmed to crash onto its designated planet, Earth. The captain remembers that he was told a good reason for this, but had forgotten it, although the reason was later revealed to be because the Ark Ship B Golgafrinchans were a 'bunch of useless idiots'.



#3
funkervogt

funkervogt

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 933 posts

Rough morning? 



#4
starspawn0

starspawn0

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,614 posts

Not at all. He could be really good -- I just don't know. Another guy one might compare him with is Frey:

https://futuristspeaker.com/

Frey seems zanier, and so probably a blast to talk to. I doubt Frey has his depth of understanding of global politics; and probably doesn't care much for it. The New York Times's Thomas -- "The World Is Flat" -- Friedman might be another person to compare him to. I think Friedman probably would get put on the "Ship B" in Adams's tale; Zeihan seems to be more perceptive.

I will level with you: I run into middle-management, recruiter, and sales-consultant types all the time. They cram the coffee shops I used to go to, where I went to get work done (I prefer not to work in my office to do heavy thinking), and now find it impossible; just too many of them, and they are so very loud. I would be much happier if they moved somewhere else to do their business.

Addendum: In fact, two just plopped down at the table next to me. They don't know I'm writing about them. I hear the words "gateway", "allocation", "size of fund", "the boxes it doesn't check", "tradeoff", "portfolio", "spun-out", "we just bought 'em out", "incremental", etc. And then there's another guy on the other side on his smartphone running another business conversation.



#5
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,767 posts

Starspawn's first set of examples reminds me of Joni Mitchell's song about the guy on the street corner who was singing "real good for free."  Put another way, their is the example of a classical musician of excellent reputation who suspected that it was his reputation alone that separated him from lesser musicians.  To test his idea out, he went to a street corner and start playing "real good for free."  As he suspected, everybody ignored him or at best offered a very small reward for his playing. This contrasted with concerts in which much hype was given as to him being a great musician.  To those concerts, he could charge to top dollar and still fill the concert hall with eager fans.  Suggesting that hype is everything.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#6
funkervogt

funkervogt

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 933 posts

A related article by someone else, FWIW. He thinks China's economy could start imploding in as little as two years. 

 

https://seekingalpha...ics-haunt-china



#7
Outlook

Outlook

    Arab Muslim

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,307 posts
  • LocationBarbary Lands

He thinks China's economy could start imploding in as little as two years. 

 

Never heard about that before.


Outlook's secret song of the ~week: https://youtu.be/Gnyr3sbdKkU

#8
Erowind

Erowind

    Anarchist without an adjective

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,279 posts

I've never heard of this guy before.  He might be good at what he does, and offer important insights -- I don't know enough about geopolitics to say.

But there are others that occupy a similar strata -- let's call it "Class B" -- who are futurists and consultants that most people never hear about, that he superficially reminds me of.  They get invited to prognosticate at the local Hilton Hotel for a convention with a title like, "American Power in the Age of Turmoil"; admission is $1,000, and you get a signed copy of some guy's book, along with an outing to a bar where everyone orders shots and drinks with little umbrellas.  And it's attended by yet more people you've never heard of -- sales consultants, people with titles like "East Coast director of team management success", mid-level management types, and so on.  Douglas Adams described these people in his Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy:

 

 

It's amazing how much we butt heads at times and then at other times sound like we're speaking from the same mouths with different levels of experience. You're more eloquent but I could have seen myself saying something nearly identical in this thread xD



#9
Erowind

Erowind

    Anarchist without an adjective

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,279 posts

Anywho let's examine these predictions. 

  1. The mass retirement of the Baby Boomers will cause the cost of capital to quadruple in 2022. (11:00 mark)
  2. At least in the U.S., the resulting fiscal meltdown will be fixed by Millennial productivity and spending. (12:00 mark)
  3. Hard Brexit is inevitable (27:00)
  4. China's economy will start contracting within five years. The problem will be mostly driven by the aging of the population. They will enter a deflationary spiral like Japan did. (37:00 mark)
  5. Thanks to Brexit and unsympathetic U.S. trade policies, London's financial sector will shrink by 3/4. Most of the lost jobs will go to the U.S. or European mainland. (45:00 mark)
  6. Trump has 90% odds of being reelected. (47:00 mark) 

1. The retirement of Baby Boomers is a minor element in the coming economic crisis. Any analysis that doesn't focus primarily on debt collateralization and global supply chain disruption caused by climate crisis isn't going to get very far. Capital cost very well may quadruple but it won't be because of a glut of retirees in whole. As resources become scarcer cost will rise. Cost will also rise as company after company gets its lending status downgraded as the economy starts defaulting on its debt bubble. 

 

2. Growth economics will not solve either of these problem. Predicting that consumerism from one of the poorest generations in modern U.S history during the greatest resource crisis in world history will save the economy is a flawed analysis. The United States is an imperial country that is as rich as it is because it goes from country to country pillaging natural resources and extracting value from slave labour. When one country collapses/the cost of resource extraction exceeds the cost of investment the U.S moves onto another country which hasn't been pillaged fully yet. All imperial countries do this for the record, Japan, UK, China, etc under the disguise of "development" and "foreign aid." As debt collateralization unravels and climate crisis causes resources to become scarcer and more difficult to extract collapse will start seeping into imperial countries aswell. The United States cannot maintain its wealth in a state of autarky should global trade wind down significantly, and it will. All imperial countries are to Trantor as Trantor is to the rest of the Empire in The Foundation Trilogy. Cut the resource extraction and it all comes tumbling down. If we dared to add a Marxist analysis into the mix the whole picture gets even more bleak for America with the the tendency for the rate of profit to fall encroaching on the world economy over the next century aswell. 

 

3. I tend to focus on the long term so events like Brexit don't really register on my radar tbh. His argument based on historical precedent from WWII is true but I don't know if the U.S is that vindictive towards the British today and Trump's protectionism as much as it's caused an upset isn't hard hawkish protectionism as one would think of protectionism a century ago. For example, this New NAFTA deal Trump's administration pushed recently would have never been even suggested by a real protectionist. I also know that the City of London is far more powerful than people give it credit for. The sheer amount of capital that flows through the City of London is staggering and I would be surprised to see that capital go unleveraged in any negotiation to such a level that finance leaves London at such a high rate. Hard Brexit maybe, I'm skeptical but I'm not knowledgeable enough to speak with confidence on this one. 

 

4. China's economy has incredible room to grow still and an aging population won't matter for the time being. The rural and western portions of the country are still mostly undeveloped with nearly 60% of their population still living on less than 10$ a day. The demographic shift here shows these people moving to the Developed Eastern and Southern coasts as well as metropolitan cores. Even with an aging population the labour pool will still be plenty large enough for growth. This same form of development happened in the United States from the late 1800s clear through to the modern day (as in many countries) with it slowing in the past few decades for the U.S. China is very much still in the early stages of this industrialization and development. Not the beginning, but climate crisis aside I'd expect Chinese growth to continue for decades to come. As for the maritime trade argument, China is building the belt and road initiative for a reason and I don't see reason to suspect it will fail, especially considering how much of it is overland and which the United States nor Asian maritime states could leverage dominion over. It's also dubious to suggest all those maritime states would be hostile to China when many of them will likely play off both sides or even become Chinese allies if the Chinese offer greater growth potential.

 

https://chinapower.c...a-middle-class/  Source for the site is Pew Research, make of that what you will. I mostly trust economic data from Pew Research where I wouldn't trust them to explain Cuban democracy for reasons similar with other institutions that I've stated before. Intent and funding sources must be questioned as always.

 

5. All depends on prediction 3 pans out. 

 

6. That depends entirely on whether Bernie wins the primary or not. If he does it's anyone's game, if not than I expect Trump to have high odds of winning, although, maybe not that high. 



#10
funkervogt

funkervogt

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 933 posts

 

 

https://chinapower.c...a-middle-class/  Source for the site is Pew Research, make of that what you will.

 

3/4 of the way down that webpage, there's a chart titled "Population history and projections for China." Tweak it to show 2050 population estimates and gawk at its utter disastrousness. China should pray for advanced AI and a few hundred million robots to plug the labor shortfall that is heading their way. 

 

 

 

I mostly trust economic data from Pew Research where I wouldn't trust them to explain Cuban democracy for reasons similar with other institutions that I've stated before.

That's all we need to hear. 







Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: zeihan, geopolitics

0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users