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Parallels between deaths of Roman emperors and engineering failures random failures of engineering components.

Roman Emperors Engineeering Failure Component Failure

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#1
caltrek

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Pattern Discovered in Deaths of Roman Emperors

 

https://www.courthou...roman-emperors/

 

Introduction:

 

(Courthouse News) – Emperors of the Roman Empire were not long-reigning rulers as a majority of them met an untimely end from either assassins, suicide or combat. New research released Sunday finds that the truncated lifespan of a Roman emperor, seemingly random, appears to match a particular pattern found in engineering.

 

Of the 69 emperors, 43 were killed by violent means. One ruler, Pertinax, was in power for only 86 days before being assassinated by his soldiers after threatening to impose stricter rules on them. This high risk of death is not surprising, according to a new study published in the journal Palgrave Communications.

 

Researchers discovered that Roman emperors faced an exceedingly high probability of death in the first year of their reign. The risk, however, slowly decreased over the next seven years. When modeled statistically, researchers discovered parallels between the random deaths of Roman emperors and random failures of engineering components.

 

 “In engineering, the reliability of a component or process is defined as the probability that it is still operational at a given time,” said Joseph Saleh, aerospace engineer at the Georgia Institute of Technology. “The time it takes for a component or process to fail is referred to as its time-to-failure and this shows similarities to the time-to-violent-death of Roman emperors.”

 

Just as emperors faced a greater risk of death in their first year of rule, engineering components also face early failure “often as a result of a failure to function as intended or, in the case of an emperor, meet the demands of their role.”

Caligula.jpeg?resize=225%2C300

Caligula, who ruled from 37 AD to 41 AD, was assassinated by a conspiracy of guards and senators.

(Photo courtesy of Joseph Saleh)

 

Edit:  Well, I certainly managed to introduce a random error in how I titled this thread    :angry:


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#2
PhoenixRu

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#3
Outlook

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That's a really interesting idea. I've always thought of countries as types of organisms. It's very nature-like process to me.
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#4
PhoenixRu

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That's a really interesting idea. I've always thought of countries as types of organisms. It's very nature-like process to me.

 

Then you should read the "Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall" by Peter Turchin. This is exactly what you meant:

 

Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history.

 

Despite this heavy academic description, the book itself is quite clearly written (if you have the basic understanding of mathematics and coding). I found it interesting to read except, I must admit, for some places that made me stuck and surrender.






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