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Your 2020 Predictions

2020 technology society politics

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#1
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

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Your 2015 Predictions
Your 2016 Predictions
Your 2017 Predictions
Your 2018 Predictions
Your 2019 Predictions
Your 2020 Predictions ←You are here!
 
It's that time of the year!

At long last, we've arrived at AD 2020. Now it's time to predict what you think will happen in the new decade's inaugural year.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#2
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

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Main Timeline predictions

  • Microsoft ends support for Windows 7
  • America's power shift is destabilising the Asia-Pacific region
  • Generation X is reshaping global politics
  • Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide
  • Texting by thinking
  • Complex organ replacements grown from stem cells
  • The first stem cell therapy for congestive heart failure
  • A cure for malaria
  • Progress with longevity extension
  • Genetically engineered "super" bananas
  • Tokyo hosts the Olympic Games
  • Hong Kong's Mass Transit Railway (MTR) has been significantly expanded
  • Completion of the Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link | The UK has expanded its offshore grid connections
  • Smart meters in every UK home | Mercury pollution has been greatly reduced
  • Glacier National Park and other regions are becoming ice-free
  • Britain's new aircraft carriers reach full operational capability
  • 30,000 drones are patrolling the skies of America
  • Mars 2020 rover mission
  • The first test flights of NASA's Quiet Supersonic Technology
  • England's Coastal Path is open to walkers
  • Expo 2020 is held in Dubai
  • The PlayStation 5 is launched
  • The final collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf

My Predictions
 
Disclaimer: Due to my atrocious batting average with them, I'm completely excluding any geopolitical predictions, save for those related to technology in some way.
 

  • Virtual reality receives its first "killer app" that specifically drives sales of headsets
  • The second generation of VR headsets are formally teased, with the first likely receiving a Q4 2021 or unknown-quarter 2022 release date.
  • Apple unveils an augmented/mixed reality headset, though for a very high price and marketed more towards enterprise & business. The form factor is considered a massive step forward from earlier designs (such as HoloLens and Magic Leap)
  • 5G coverage expands, particularly across China, the wealthier East Asian countries, and Europe.
  • With 5G comes an explosion of Internet of Things gadgetry, plenty of which will remain overpriced and unnecessary due to the prevalence of smartphones and smart speakers
  • Smart speakers will begin to be fused with robotic apparatuses that allow them to move about or even physically manipulate certain objects, ushering a second wind for domestic robotics after the disastrous first wave of 2016-2019. Think of video game console add-ons, but now for Amazon Echo and Google Home devices.
  • Starlink and other global internet services will begin engaging in active operations. Satellites will be the dominant method, followed by high-altitude balloons and drones.
  • Passenger drones will begin carrying their first passengers as part of "flying taxi" services, likely in Dubai and certain East Asian cities
  • Psilocybin is decriminalized or legalized in a US state
  • Marijuana legalization continues to spread. Mexico likely legalizes, followed by a European and Asian country. At least 30 US states have either legal or decriminalized weed. Also, a southern US state will send to a referendum, with the answer being to legalize by 2022. Also, a southern US state will send to a referendum, with the answer being to legalize by 2022.
  • The first public commercial sale of cultured meat occurs this year.
  • Metafarming (including vertical farming, urban farming, and hydroponics) will see massive gains, especially in response to a growing need for solutions to the effects of climate change
  • Geoengineering proposals will slowly enter mainstream discourse
  • CRISPR is used once more for the purpose of genetically modifying a human embryo, though not for the purpose of creating a designer baby a la Lulu & Nana.
  • Mammoth genetic material is able to be inseminated into an elephant, but no birth is undertaken
  • Level 3 autonomy becomes a more widespread feature of cars
  • Public tests of Level 4 AVs increase in number, but there are no commercially available Level 4 AVs
  • Number of electric cars on the road passes 10 million worldwide
  • Tesla fails to achieve profitability in more than one quarter, but its stock price reaches at least $500 a share
  • SpaceX's first manned human space flights occur
  • Solar power passes 800 GW of installation worldwide
  • Sustained nuclear fusion with net energy is achieved, but plans for fusion power remain in the future
  • A room-temperature superconductor is formally found, perhaps with temperatures up to 50­°F. However, it is only possible at extreme pressures, perhaps 200 gigapascals.
  • Quantum supremacy is formally achieved (sans skepticism)
  • DeepMind's newest network demonstrates the ability to play NES games as well as Atari games, chess, go, and shogi.
  • The first discussions of a need to create a new definition for AI architecture to handle the burgeoning "in between ANI and AGI" capabilities of generalized narrow intelligence will be passed around
  • Boston Dynamics reveals a new robot that is non-humanoid (perhaps spider/octopode-esque) in design
  • The first commercially available bipedal humanoid robot will be released for business use, most likely in China and Japan (most likely the UBTech Walker)
  • Donald Trump will announce a robotics and AI initiative to counter China's growing AI dominance. This will likely result in a new government agency, "Department of Machine Intelligence" or something along those lines.
  • Privacy has emerged as a primary political issue. The virtually constant use of electronic communication technologies is leaving a highly detailed trail of every person’s every move.
  • Artificial neural networks as used for media synthesis continue to improve exponentially: "This [X] Does Not Exist" will boom in number
  • Deepfakes will be successfully used for a billion-dollar scam
  • Human image synthesis becomes indistinguishable from a photograph
  • A natural language generation (NLG) transformer will pass the Turing Test by a shocking amount (but obviously will not herald artificial general intelligence)
  • OpenAI's GPT-2 will be expanded to at least 15 billion data parameters
  • A Grover AI-generated article will be retweeted at least 100,000 times, including despite being exposed as AI-generated
  • Neural style transfer will be applied to music (i.e. shifting a guitar into a synth; a drum into a piano) as part of either a popular or memetic app/website (by "memetic" I mean that it mainly attains popularity and wide discussion for a relatively short period of time, such as a few weeks, before largely falling under the radar; sort of like DeepNudes or ThisPersonDoesNotExist).
  • Deepfake videos & images will be retweeted and reposted on social media upwards of 2+ million times in the lead-up to the 2020 US Presidential Election
  • A new method for creating deepfakes will reduce the ease in their creation to the point that it will be possible to release an app dedicated to things such as full-video face-swapping.
  • Artificial news anchors are used in increasing numbers in China
  • NLG chatbots will begin being used online and outperform traditional chatbots by cosmic amounts
  • Internet comment sections will begin being infested by bots utilizing a combination of NLG for text and image synthesis for profile images.
  • An NLG-based "stylistic editor" will be tested online, allowing a passage of text to be rewritten/edited in the style of another writer (or just in general)
  • A new subreddit will be created that allows for human users & traditional bots to interact with NLG bots, as an evolution of /r/SubSimulatorGPT2.
  • Image manipulation/enhancement is used to upscale video game graphics, essentially allowing for a 6th gen game to have seemingly 8th gen graphical fidelity (if the textures are manually modded into the game)
  • Simulated bots allow for "virtual actors" in things like Minecraft or Steam Filmmaker. These will follow basic commands thanks to natural language processing.
  • Image synthesis will begin giving way to video synthesis; at least 10-second long clips will be feasible, allowing to create a mostly photorealistic gif of things that do not exist, which may be used to create This Gif Does Not Exist
  • Conversely, the ability to animate still images (that show some evidence of action) will become available online, which might also be the basis for This Gif Does Not Exist
  • The first generation of non-invasive portable MRIs are released, allowing researchers to reduce the brain to easily studiable voxels
  • An EEG BCI is used to type 100+ alphanumeric characters per minute, effectively allowing texting-by-thinking
  • Brain-scan & eye-tracking data fed into neural networks allows for explosively massive gains, perhaps upwards of two orders of magnitude over traditional methods providing there are enough scans. This may be used for additional power to NLG, driverless car improvements, and autosummarization, among others, but don't expect too much out of this just yet
  • Conversely, machine learning-enhanced EEGs may be shown to allow for practical neurocontrollers in video games/virtual reality/augmented reality
  • An update will be released on invasive BCIs, showing considerable progress since the announcement of Neuralink, but nothing yet able to translate into practical use; the first possible use-cases for medical research are predicted to be at least five to ten years away

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#3
10 year march

10 year march

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US chinese tensions intensify as China's nominal gdp continues to close in on the US's nominal gdp.

A boring democrat is nominated and Trump wins the election.

Roughly 4 small but noticeable breakthroughs in Ai occur the significance of these breakthroughs is roughly similar to the significance of the alpha go breakthrough.

In my personal life 2020 marks a year of growth In many areas coming out of a period of personal recession which took place in the prior 2 years.

Speaking of recession I expect the US 2020 recession will begin this year.

#4
funkervogt

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An AI is among the top ten best StarCraft 2 players. 

 

A disappointing person wins the U.S. Presidential election. 



#5
TranscendingGod

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    2020 is here; I still suck

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Well, my 2019 prediction was off the mark because I underestimated the depth of problems plaguing the United States.

 

I don't have a particular prediction for 2020 only many vague ideas about the general direction of things. I would like to remark that if Yuli's prediction about fusion energy comes to pass 2020 will go down as one of the most momentous years in human history. Like the years when Einstein published his seminal papers on relativity. 


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#6
TranscendingGod

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Well, my 2019 prediction was off the mark because I underestimated the depth of problems plaguing the United States.

 

I don't have a particular prediction for 2020 only many vague ideas about the general direction of things. I would like to remark that if Yuli's prediction about fusion energy comes to pass 2020 will go down as one of the most momentous years in human history. Like the years when Einstein published his seminal papers on relativity. 

I spoke too soon. https://www.wsj.com/...ars-11580398277

I was right. 


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 






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