Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!
Photo

Multi agent modeling or The Ancient History in 17 screenshots


  • Please log in to reply
4 replies to this topic

#1
PhoenixRu2020

PhoenixRu2020

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 11 posts

Having a free time combined with bad weather I returned to my old hobby: creation of multi agent "worlds" and observing their behavior. This time I decided to model nothing less than rise and fall of ancient empires. As always, model produces the unpredictable (otherwise it wouldn't be interesting) results and each new world is unique in its own way. And here I want to tell you the story of one of these worlds...

 

Here is the main concept: the square world consists of 3025 tiles divided between 200 "polities" representing chiefdoms or early states. Population of each polity consist of three social classes: nobles, free people, and slaves (initially absent). Slaves and free people are producing wealth, nobles are collecting taxes from free people and taking away everything produced by slaves. The more wealth each class has, the faster it reproduce.

 

The initial world in the year 0:

Spoiler

 

Polities doesn't sit idle, they attack each other. Again, I'm not going to bother you with formulas, but the main concept is such: chances of war are directly proportional to invader / victim power ratio. When polity is invaded, it loses one tile of territory, 1% of nobles (fell in battle defending the Motherland), and 2% of free people (enslaved by invaders). If polity's capital captured, the polity collapses and each tile of its territory becomes the new tiny polity.

 

The world of the year 100 is the boiling pot of tiny warring polities. There are even more of them than it was in the beginning:

Spoiler

 

The year 300. Looks almost the same, but there is one important difference: some polities expanded into early (still very fragile) empires:

Spoiler

 

The year 500. The Northwest Pink Empire striving to the world hegemony:

Spoiler

 

The year 800. The Northwest Pink Empire has grown almost unstoppable:

Spoiler

 

The year 1000. Here we can see the beginning of serious worldwide crisis: the growing exploitation and endless chain of wars decreased the number of free people (see "society" graph). The Northwest Pink Empire was among the most affected. Empire still holds the vast territories, but its population (represented by circle size) has shrunk dramatically. And with shrinking population, the world hegemony becomes an unattainable dream:

Spoiler

 

500 years later, in the year 1500, the world seems to be recovered. The Northwest Pink Empire is still exist, but only in shadow of two new superpowers, divided by the strip of tiny and middle-sized barbarian states: 

Spoiler

 

The year 2000. The world unification is near... or so it seems to the rulers of Northeast Green and Southwest Brown empires. But when you look and the "society" graph... the collapse was brief but devastating, as you can see on the screenshots of the year 2100 and the year 2300:

Spoiler

 

 

The following centuries were full of endless and pointles struggle. Empires were emerging and growing:

Spoiler

 

...only to disappear without a trace:

Spoiler

 

Sometimes they seemed unstoppable, like this Southeast Blue empire of the year 7000:

Spoiler

 

...but, again and again, were weakened by internal forces (rise of slavery and srinking free population) combined with attacks from outside (more and more often and successful with empire's decline). In the year 8000, this young Northeast Green empire seemed no different from the others:
Spoiler

 

Finally, after almost 10 millenia of chaos, war, and sufferings, the world is going to be unified. The Northeast Green empire somehow managed to survive all the hard times. By the year 9500, there is nothing left to stop them:

Spoiler

 

...and so it happened soon after the year 10100. For better or for worse, the world was eventually united under one banner. Btw, this has led to weird social changes: slavery almost disappeared while nobles, for the first time in world history, outnumbered the free people! Who knows, perhaps this was the unique feature that saved the Northeast Green empire from the fate of its predecessors? Anyway, there will be a lot of food for thought for future historians:

Spoiler


#2
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22,232 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

Ha! Love these so much. It's like looking into an alternate history.

Having a free time combined with bad weather I returned to my old hobby: creation of multi agent "worlds" and observing their behavior. This time I decided to model nothing less than rise and fall of ancient empires. As always, model produces the unpredictable (otherwise it wouldn't be interesting) results and each new world is unique in its own way. And here I want to tell you the story of one of these worlds...
 
Here is the main concept: the square world consists of 3025 tiles divided between 200 "polities" representing chiefdoms or early states. Population of each polity consist of three social classes: nobles, free people, and slaves (initially absent). Slaves and free people are producing wealth, nobles are collecting taxes from free people and taking away everything produced by slaves. The more wealth each class has, the faster it reproduce.
 
...and so it happened soon after the year 10100. For better or for worse, the world was eventually united under one banner. Btw, this has led to weird social changes: slavery almost disappeared while nobles, for the first time in world history, outnumbered the free people! Who knows, perhaps this was the unique feature that saved the Northeast Green empire from the fate of its predecessors? Anyway, there will be a lot of food for thought for future historians:

Spoiler

Not gonna lie, that sounds a tad bit like technism. I don't know the details of your world, but perhaps slaves were automated away with robots, ownership of robots spread about, and because of this, anyone who owned a stake in these auto-slaves was considered a noble (due to free people having capital to spend (as not all of their wealth could be taken in the first place).

Disregard this entire post if that makes no sense, considering these are ancient empires.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#3
PhoenixRu2020

PhoenixRu2020

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 11 posts

Disregard this entire post if that makes no sense, considering these are ancient empires.

 

Well, yes, it was entirely about ancient empires. I didn't even include any variables to represent technologies or "productive forces". The yearly production depended only of land area and number of workers (in general the more, the better, though not that linear). In turn, the fertility rate of workers depended of land area per capita (again, the more, the better) and current tax rates (the more, the worse).

 

Now, what happened in the last green empire and why so many nobles there? I suspect the answer is such: they began their expansion in the world already devastated and depopulated by another "slavery crisis". With no serious rivals, they managed to quickly capture the huge areas that has led to demographic explosion among free people and (later) among nobles. Usually, nobles die in lost battles, but in this case (no serious rivals) almost all the battles were won. The reasons for decline of slavery were, alas, more prosaic and tragic than you assume. Normally, slaves die of overexploitation but their number is growing after the won wars. In this case, however, the enemies simply hasn't enough population to produce the noticeable inflow of slaves. After they were beaten (again and again), the green empire was gaining only the new territories and, thus, more and more room for its own people.

 

The real question is not why it happened, but why it took so much time? I tried another few times and learned that usually it takes only 2-4 thousand years instead of 10.



#4
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22,232 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

Ah, I see; so it's more a quirk of geopolitical forces. In which case, how long does it take for this to be corrected?


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#5
Erowind

Erowind

    Anarchist without an adjective

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,523 posts

This is really cool and I enjoyed reading it. If you make anymore please post them Phoenix :-)






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users