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The next decade is a game changer

Future 5G AGI 2030

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#1
Cloned

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https://youtu.be/tAGeN5lrxws

5G and AI Everywhere: 2030 Will Be a New World | Jeff Brown |

11.23.19 | Technology is advancing faster than ever, and it’s not slowing down. This decade was the era of smart phones, streaming, and the internet of things. But with 5G and AI on the rise, high-tech executive Jeff Brown believes 2030 will be a new world. Brown is an early-stage tech investor and analyst who’s seen the modern technological revolution firsthand. He describes quantum computing as a moon landing and 5G as game-changing. He predicts a near future full of artificial intelligence, self-driving cars, wireless surgeries, genetic healing, cryptocurrencies, and more! 

----------------------------

A long, interesting conversation that probably scares you.


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#2
Raklian

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One I'm looking forward to the most is anti-aging rejuvenation.


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What are you without the sum of your parts?

#3
Cloned

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One I'm looking forward to the most is anti-aging rejuvenation.

This is the same as saying that I am not interested in transport systems, energy systems, computer systems, roads - I just want to move from point A to point B fast and cheap.

Anti-aging  is not a technology but a goal. 5G, on the other hand, is a breakthrough technology.
Let's compare the specifications:

 

Speed:
4G LTE - 10Mbit/s
5G - 1000Mbit/s

Latency:

4G LTE - 50ms
5G - 1ms

 

The bandwidth and response rate of the information network will eventually exceed the speed of the brain.
Still don't care? 



#4
Yuli Ban

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When it comes to the 2020s, the main innovations I'm looking forward to all involve artificial intelligence. Primarily media synthesis for entertainment and cognitive agents for controlling electronic appliances. By 2029, my personal hope is to have a magic media wizard that can make, oh I don't know, maybe entire musical scenes from scratch. Complete with album covers and band images and music videos. That, and to have some functional utility robots. I don't even need a humanoid one; I just one something that can cook food, like the Moley Robotic Arms.

 

AI is like the fire for cooking almost all of these other technologies, after all. As we saw with DeepMind, neural networks can accelerate predictions for protein folding (see AlphaFold) and can conceivably do the same for other areas of biochemistry with enough power. It's why I say you can't have designer babies & neo-eugenics without AI that would render the results of said engineering redundant. Run enough juice through them, and neural networks (or perhaps some future evolution of them) will solve aging, among most other diseases (possibly even all diseases). Hell, even prion diseases might be curable if AI advances far enough (again, see AlphaFold).


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#5
Cloned

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the main innovations I'm looking forward to all involve artificial intelligence. 
I don't even need a humanoid one; I just one something that can cook food, like the Moley Robotic Arms.

 

If I get you right, all you want is digital nanny.
I am more interested in systemic change, allowing new social structures to flourish. Instant access to information is not an AI, but it allows seamless AI  integration into the structure of society.
What are supercars without a highway for?

 

5G technology will become widespread in the next 2-3 years. Then the old world order will collapse.



#6
Raklian

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One I'm looking forward to the most is anti-aging rejuvenation.

This is the same as saying that I am not interested in transport systems, energy systems, computer systems, roads - I just want to move from point A to point B fast and cheap.

Anti-aging  is not a technology but a goal. 5G, on the other hand, is a breakthrough technology.
Let's compare the specifications:

 

 

 

Anti-aging rejuvenation is most certainly a technology, no exceptions to that.

 

Aging reversal or increasing the health longevity is a goal.

 

Just wanted to make this clear.


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What are you without the sum of your parts?

#7
Yuli Ban

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the main innovations I'm looking forward to all involve artificial intelligence. 
I don't even need a humanoid one; I just one something that can cook food, like the Moley Robotic Arms.

 
If I get you right, all you want is digital nanny.
I am more interested in systemic change, allowing new social structures to flourish. Instant access to information is not an AI, but it allows seamless AI  integration into the structure of society.
What are supercars without a highway for?
 
5G technology will become widespread in the next 2-3 years. Then the old world order will collapse.

 

5G? 5G won't bring about systemic change anywhere near the extent of applied AI.

I speak no hyperbole when I say that media synthesis alone will upend every aspect of our sociopolitical discourse. And if you think that a "digital nanny" is the extent of all that's possible with such a tech, I don't even know what to say.
 
5G has promise and will improve digital infrastructure by unprecedented amounts (especially with satellite/high-altitude internet coming of age), but the old world order absolutely will not collapse. Indeed, with the coming of the age of imaginative machines, we could be on the verge of many bizarre things.


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#8
waitingforthe2030s

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The world of 2030 will culturally be much different than 2020, I predict. When you have niche's that split into niche's that split into niche's, and you can easily fulfill them, that is going to change pop culture forever. 


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I'm a radical demo-publiacrat.

 

This is Scatman's world, and we're living in it.


#9
caltrek

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Necessity dictates that the 2020s needs to be  game changer inn terms of getting on top of the problem(s) of global warming and accompanying things such as coastal flooding, droughts, tipping points, etc.  If humanity fails in this decade to accelerate progress in this regard, then things such as culture, 5G, media synthesis, etc. will be trivial footnotes to future historians in comparison to the breadth and scope of this issue.  One even wonders if there will be "future" historians to even look back upon this era. Even if the human species survives the worse of our collective negligence, will there be enough of a culture to even support historical enquiry and discussion? Or will that sort of thing be ejected as an unneeded luxury with all energy devoted to the simple act of survival?


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#10
Cloned

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Anti-aging rejuvenation is most certainly a technology, no exceptions to that.

Crispr cas9 is a technology. 

"CRISPR-Cas9 is a unique technology that enables geneticists and medical researchers to edit parts of the genome by removing, adding or altering sections of the DNA sequence."

Anti-aging rejuvenation is a concept.

-------------------------------------------------

 

5G won't bring about systemic change anywhere near the extent of applied AI.

 

It will. 

Autonomous robots will suddenly appear.
Supercomputers will become accessible to many.
Cars, as we know them, will disappear.
Money, as we know it, will disappear.

Healthcare and education will be 100% automated.
Governments will faded into obscurity.

All this can certainly be achieved in a decade.


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#11
caltrek

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Autonomous robots will suddenly appear.

 

Not sure why 5G is important to that, but yes something I can see definitely occuring.

 

Supercomputers will become accessible to many.

 

We already have the internet.  Do you mean as in "to researchers and others having large data crunching needs"?  

 

Cars, as we know them, will disappear.

 

Key phrase there is "as we know them."  

 

Money, as we know it, will disappear.

 

If you mean as in "replaced by credit cards" or some such similar technology...has already happened on a large scale.

 

If you mean currency as a medium of exchange.  No. That "currency" may become more electronic in nature, but there will still be a need to measure value, at least in the near term future.  Long term, are you talking about something like communism...to each according to his need...and therefore dispensing with the bookkeeping headache of currency altogether?

 

Or am I missing something?

  

Healthcare and education will be 100% automated

 

I can see significant steps forward toward that goal...but "100%"  within ten years seems like a stretch to me.

 

Governments will faded into obscurity.

 

See comment above regarding money and communism.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#12
Cloned

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1.Autonomous robots will suddenly appear.
Visual data streams must be transmitted in real time. 5G technology will allow this.

 

2. Supercomputers will become accessible to many.
The same. Supercomputers can simultaneously process data from thousands of cars, but any delay can be crucial.

 

3. Cars, as we know them, will disappear.
The future is Autonomous Pod Cars.

 

4. Money, as we know it, will disappear.
you mean currency as a medium of exchange?

No, I mean money that only banks and the government can print .

 

5. Healthcare and education will be 100% automated.

It should be 100% automated, otherwise it makes no sense. Same thing with autonomous driving. Human interaction is a problem.

 

6. Governments will faded into obscurity.
AI will be much better in many areas of management. No corruption, sympathies or bias.  And there is always a way to check how the program is making decisions.


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#13
SeedNotYetSprouted

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5G is all about more data, at a faster speed, with less delay. This makes it sorta clear why you brought up #s 1, 2 and 3 because data and sensing seem to be the major hurdles to autonomous vehicles and robots

 

   However,....the rest of the things that you listed would still require the procession of several other 'checkpoints' before they could be realized.  And honestly, they're pretty broad to say the least.

 

 4. If you're referring to blockchain and cryptocurrencies, which I assume you are if by money you "mean money that only banks and the government can print", then 5G wouldn't be the thing that would allow them to usurp the fiat, seeing as blockchain technology doesn't require 5G to begin with.

 

5. I agree with you that human interaction in these fields is largely an inhibitor rather than an enhancer, but I can't quite get a grasp of how 5G will cause the FULL automation of the two. Better AI is needed. Besides, you must consider the societal and political barriers.

 

6. I'm thinking that it's likely the opposite. Being able to take in more data at faster speeds over a larger area would amplify the utility of surveillance tools thus making control a much easier prospect.



#14
Cloned

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4. If you're referring to blockchain and cryptocurrencies
Not necessarily. The mutual settlement system may become the structure created by a large corporation (Google, Facebook,  Apple, Tesla) or the Social Credit System, which is now deployed in China.

5. I can't quite get a grasp of how 5G will cause the FULL automation
Тhink about traffic rules. With the introduction of autonomous transport, they will become obsolete.  
Why do we need doctors, when the AI will diagnose instantly with extreme accuracy and will provide the most effective treatment?
Humans are slow, inexorably slow. And selfish.


6. Being able to take in more data at faster speeds over a larger area would amplify the utility of surveillance tools thus making control a much easier prospect.
You are absolutely right. That is why people cannot be allowed into power.


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#15
Casey

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Good thread, though I'm a little surprised it came from Cloned since he also posted threads about the present being disappointing compared to predictions from the 1950s. Unless you think that the 2000s and 2010s were slow/disappointing and the 2020s are where things really change?

 

I've been scared by the promise of rapid change in the future once, and exactly once. That was when I discovered FutureTimeline the December of 2011. As fascinating as I found the timeline to be, it was too much to absorb at once for my normal person, non-futurist brain, so I found myself clinging to the present for a little bit and thankful that sweeping changes were still years away.

 

Once I'd been 'broken in,' though, I've been more or less an extremist ever since. The world of the 1990s and 2000s always made me unhappy. It felt harsh and gritty. So many limitations, so many inescapable sources of pain. Rapid change doesn't scare me in the slightest and it never will again. Stagnation, or progress being slowed down by Luddites or people in positions of power being overly cautious and pussyfooting around, is what terrifies me.


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#16
Alislaws

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Stagnation, or progress being slowed down by Luddites or people in positions of power being overly cautious and pussyfooting around, is what terrifies me.

 

This factor is exactly why all of Cloned's predictions for the impact of 5G are going to come through way later than 2030. 

 

It doesn't matter if we can​ automate all driving, for example. Because millions of people would be very upset at having their car taken away and being banned from driving. 

 

And if your automated cars need to worry about humans driving randomly and unpredictably around the place, then we have to delay them by half a decade to test them before anyone is legally allowed to lift their hands off the wheel. 

 

Even if that's all sorted, the average age of cars (uk) is about 7-8 years, so there would be at least a decade getting everyone switched over. Assuming you could persuade everyone to want to. 

 

Same with autonomous education and healthcare:

You need to 100% automate very very important processes, mess up healthcare and people die, mess up education and you destroy the future of your nation/society, along with the lives and prospects of potentially millions of children.

(there's a reason schools are still using the whole "sit 30 children in a room and lecture them for hours" methods in spite of all the better ways we have had to teach people since the invention of TV)

 

You also need to do it with little/reluctant assistance from the majority of existing teachers or doctors/nurses (since they won't want to put themselves out of a job)

 

 

You need to consider more factors than "Would this be technically feasible", which is why Ray Kurzweil has missed a lot of predictions.

 

Just because we could​ doesn't mean we will. 


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#17
caltrek

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There is not just the resistance from teachers, doctors, and nurses, there is also the human touch required, or at least preferred, by many.  Sure, 5G might greatly enhance diagnostic capabilities.  Younger people well trained in computer usage through their education and through gaming might also feel very comfortable with dealing just with computer interfaces.  I think folks of my generation (baby boomers) feel more comfortable with doctors and nurses still playing a "middle man" role. 

 

It is like when a local grocery store, one of a larger chain, introduced automated teller stations.  Some people were comfortable using them.  Some of us continued to insist on interacting with human store clerks.  In medicine, there have also been studies showing the importance of human touch and a good bedside manner in the healing process. These relate to psychological aspects of healing.  Now, some may feel as if they are getting all they need from a computer and/or robot with human like personalities.  So, advanced AI and robotics may be more than enough for them.  That may also be a generational thing, or it may speak to a deeper need humans have. 

 

Things like 5G may greatly augment the power of a doctor to diagnose and prescribe appropriate remedies. Still, augmentation is different than replacement.  I suspect that is also true with education.  Television as a way of educating can be quite boring.  A real human being posing real questions and infusing real emotional interchanges with students can be much more effective in engaging the student mind.  As AI and robotic interfaces grow more and more sophisticated the natural "advantages" of using real live humans may decrease. Still, that may need to be a more gradual process than the highly computer literate might suppose.


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The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#18
Cloned

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I'm a little surprised it came from Cloned

I am interested in real change, rather than the primitive consumerism. Question What the iPhone of 2045 will look like ? is similar to What the Polaroid instant cameras of 2020 will look like ?
Linear thinking is not what I'm interested in.


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#19
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It doesn't matter if we can​ automate all driving, for example. Because millions of people would be very upset at having their car taken away and being banned from driving. 

Just because we could​ doesn't mean we will. 

We'll be forced by competition. It is strange how quickly people forget past technological transitions. When new, more advanced technology comes on the market, no one will stop them.
How long did it take to replace an analog photo with a digital one?

 



#20
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there is also the human touch required, or at least preferred, by many  

Yes, I have heard this many times, which is very misleading. Do you want someone to touch your food or you when you go shopping at the supermarket?
​Definitely not. All you need is a 'small talk' -
 AI will surely help you. People actually not very knowledgeable, and those who really know something are inaccessible to a small conversation. 
So, a brave new world is coming, whether you like it or not.  :biggrin:
 







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