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The next decade is a game changer

Future 5G AGI 2030

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29 replies to this topic

#21
caltrek

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So, a brave new world is coming, whether you like it or not.

 

Possibly, just perhaps not as fast as you would hope.   :king:


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#22
Alislaws

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It doesn't matter if we can​ automate all driving, for example. Because millions of people would be very upset at having their car taken away and being banned from driving. 

Just because we could​ doesn't mean we will. 

We'll be forced by competition. It is strange how quickly people forget past technological transitions. When new, more advanced technology comes on the market, no one will stop them.
How long did it take to replace an analog photo with a digital one?

 

 

The first digital camera was created by a Kodak Engineer in 1975.

In 1989, Fujifilm released the FUJIX DS-X, the first fully digital camera to be commercially released.

In 2012(?) Kodak went bust because they didn't make the transition to digital cameras well enough. 

 

so conservatively id say 1990 for "digital cameras were possible" and 2006 or so for "digital cameras overtake film cameras" so 16 years from "We Can" to "Everyone Does"

(although of course people are still using non-digital cameras today in many places and for a variety of reasons)

 

Are you sure you're not doing the thing where you confuse "technology uptake" with "smartphone uptake measuring from the release of the first iphone" because a lot of people seem to do this when predicting new tech uptake rates. (e.g. in the VR industry)



#23
Cyber_Rebel

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I've been scared by the promise of rapid change in the future once, and exactly once. That was when I discovered FutureTimeline the December of 2011. As fascinating as I found the timeline to be, it was too much to absorb at once for my normal person, non-futurist brain, so I found myself clinging to the present for a little bit and thankful that sweeping changes were still years away.

 

Sort of the same for me, only I became a futurist somewhat earlier due to living a disappointing normal (not really) life near the later years of high school. (2006-7 Ray Kurzweil's book, and some other documentaries) It was an on/off thing for me, learning to be more scientifically objective while balancing more "hippie" inclinations before I found the Timeline in 2012. 

 

Fitting that it was also around the time of the resurgent VR movement, A.I. advances, and Elon Musk showing that space could be possible again. Really, I'm selfishly wanting to see VR at the end of this decade. BCI and matured haptic feedback suits could be the game changer for this tech. If personal life is still abysmal, there's always an escape to what I'm sure will be a great stress relief for many. Fantastic platform for education, too, or better connecting the world in an updated internet. Web 3.0? 

 

Supposedly, the end of this decade will also feature an AGI of some sort. I only hope the socio-political landscape will be vastly different by that point. 



#24
Cloned

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Are you sure you're not doing the thing where you confuse "technology uptake" with "smartphone uptake measuring from the release of the first iphone" because a lot of people seem to do this when predicting new tech uptake rates. (e.g. in the VR industry)

The important factors are:
economical effect
downsizing
percentage improvement in performance
disruptive or evolutionary
ease of use
------------------------------------
For example, curved screens have no advantages. 
Smartphones are a disruptive technology because they have destroyed entire groups of products.
Electric cars are an evolutionary change with respect to the automotive industry, but they are disruptive to the petroleum market.
Self-driving cars undermines the car ownership.
-----------------------------------
5G with a bandwidth of 100 times greater and a delay of 50 times faster is actually 5,000 times more efficient than the existing technology.
Is it expensive? No.
Smaller? Possibly a bit.

Improvement in performance - 5000x

Disruptive or evolutionary - potentially disruptive because of such a terrific improvements

What is needed to spread this technology? 5G network and 5G phones. Already exist.
Therefore my predictions are rather conservative.

 



#25
Alislaws

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Fair enough i totally agree that we will have 5G in most developed nations by the end of 2030, if that's all you're claiming.



#26
Cloned

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Fair enough i totally agree that we will have 5G in most developed nations by the end of 2030

We will have 5G in 3 years. Then the domino will begin to fall. 
Most people expect AI to be the next big thing. In my opinion, it will be a hybrid of man and artificial intelligence. 
People will eventually be able to move, use artificial hands and sensors at a distance
 - which is perhaps the greatest revolution equal to the invention of electricity.
Enhanced with artificial intelligence, remote jobs will become the norm and highly competitive tool.  The first prototypes we will see this year, perhaps in China.



#27
Kynareth

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In 2015 I thought that VR would be like smartphones with March 2016 Oculus Rift being the iPhone moment (June 2007). I was wrong, too optimistic. Now I'm more cautious about everything.



#28
Alislaws

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Fair enough i totally agree that we will have 5G in most developed nations by the end of 2030

We will have 5G in 3 years. Then the domino will begin to fall. 
Most people expect AI to be the next big thing. In my opinion, it will be a hybrid of man and artificial intelligence. 
People will eventually be able to move, use artificial hands and sensors at a distance
 - which is perhaps the greatest revolution equal to the invention of electricity.
Enhanced with artificial intelligence, remote jobs will become the norm and highly competitive tool.  The first prototypes we will see this year, perhaps in China.

 

Where do you live?

 

The USA doesn't even have 3G fully rolled out, let alone 4 or 5G.

The UK doesn't have 4G access everywhere.  

 

Big cities will have 5G within a few years sure. But things like using 5G to improve driverless cars will need to wait till they have full coverage which probably will take a decade on its own in the UK and will likely not happen in the USA unless star link can act as part of a 5G network. 

 

Outside of big cities its much less profitable to introduce, so costs will need to come down significantly before 5G starts to roll out in the less affluent parts of the countryside. This is also the part of the country you need to get connected if you want people working remotely on stuff, since people living in cities already live near jobs.

 

Also people working remotely are usually less engaged and less productive than people working in shared spaces with their colleagues (e.g. an office). Its possible VR or AR progress will someday allow us to find a way around this, but no one has yet and the people running companies are mostly not interested and they're the ones with the money. 

 

In terms of using telepresence stuff, like remote controlling robots, the robots don't exist for this yet. A robot dog with manipulator arm costs something in the region of $50,000. Getting people trained for remote manual work will take time and effort, I'd be very surprised to see any significant number of people doing remote physical labour, even if all the prerequisites are in place by 2022.

 

I'd love to see the kind of industrial revolution you're talking about happen that fast, but I don't think it is very likely. 



#29
Kynareth

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And why was I wrong about VR? Because exponential trends slowed down. Going the smartphone route would require VR headsets to double screen resolution or refresh rate and GPUs to quadruple processing efficiency every 2 years. However, 2020 is here and for a reasonable price you can buy nothing more than the Rift S with 42% higher resolution compared to the Rift (15 Hz LOWER refresh rate) and Radeon 5700 XT with 42% more performance than GeForce 1070 (and the same amount of VRAM). I was so naive back in 2015... influenced by Singularity is Near and other 'exponential change' books.



#30
Cloned

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Big cities will have 5G within a few years sure.

And smaller cities too.

 

driverless cars will need to wait till they have full coverage which probably will take a decade
Fifth generation driverless cars are decades away. Small parcel delivery vehicles already exist. 5G will give them true life and effectiveness.

 

people working remotely are usually less engaged and less productive than people working in shared spaces with their colleagues
I don't think so. 
One employee will be able to take care of several jobs at the same time. Which is much more effective than keeping people in workplaces with a small load.

 

remote controlling robots, the robots don't exist for this yet
great area for investments

 

A robot dog with manipulator arm costs something in the region of $50,000. 
Mass production will slash prices significantly.

 

Getting people trained for remote manual work will take time and effort.
Most people will prefer to work remotely because they have known computers and joysticks since childhood.

 

Of course there will be no remote barbers. I am talking about simple tasks to get things started.

 







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