4 replies to this topic

[MarcZ]

It is believed in the next 30 years as of January 1st, 2018 there is a 70-80% possibility that the Nankai Trough off Japan will have its next megaquake. This will become the most destructive natural disaster in human history crippling Japan and in particular severely affecting the cities of Nagoya, Osaka, and Tokyo. It is estimated damages from this event will approach 2 Trillion (USD) in today's dollars eclipsing the current record holder most expensive disaster 2011's Tohoku Earthquake which caused between 200 billion - 300 billion dollars worth of damage. Death tolls from this event in a worst case scenario would also likely be more than 10 times the Tohoku Earthquake and potentially worse than the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami with a final death toll of up to 323,000 people possible depending on the time and severity of the quake. The quake and resulting tsunami destroys much of Japan's critical infrastructure in affected regions. Food, water, electricity, and cellular service disappear for days and in some places weeks or months.

 

https://www.nippon.c...nkai-quake.html

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=hcfmf_yFNaQ

[Erowind]

Watching that video reminds me of what a functional government looks like. The efficient disaster mitigation they're funding and doing should be a model for us all with many problems beyond disaster mitigation. 

[wjfox]

Thanks Marc, this is very interesting (although rather depressing and scary) and will make an excellent addition to the timeline. I could look at past dates on Wikipedia and possibly narrow the future date range a bit more.

[wjfox]

2050 to 2070 seems like the best range, according to my rough calculation, based on the average interval between quakes since 1300 AD.

 

Also, this calculation treats "pairs" of quakes (i.e. within a year or two of each other) as one.

[wjfox]

Actually, 2060 to 2080 is probably better!

 

Here's my finished graph.