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News from the year 2020 as written in the year 2004

2020 2004 predictions

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6 replies to this topic

#1
Yuli Ban

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News of the Future
Most of these are either accurate or uncannily close!


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#2
wjfox

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Peak oil turned out to be a massive nothing-burger, though. :)

#3
Erowind

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/\ for now 



#4
Maximus

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They were pretty close with the estimation for total wind capacity of 680 GW. I can't seem to find any data newer than 2018, but total wind capacity by the end of 2018 was around 564.95 GW, so we could probably achieve 680 GW by the end of this year. They did get one thing completely wrong though:

 

 

Wind power is by far the renewable source with the largest growth in worldwide capacity during the last decade.

 

Total installed wind capacity in 2010: 180.94 GW

Total installed wind capacity in 2018: 564.95 GW

Increase = 212.2% increase

 

Total installed solar capacity in 2010: 39.53 GW

Total installed solar capacity in 2018: 487.83 GW

Increase = 1,133.3% increase

 

Source: https://ourworldinda...enewable-energy



#5
Yuli Ban

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I just seriously thought about this. Overlong Yuli Ban rant/retrospective/nostalgia post incoming!

 

It's so strange to think about! For so long, 2004 was the past. We've all lived through 2004 (even though some of our ranks are too young to remember it), so we can easily imagine trying to imagine how our 2004 selves would've thought about 2020. I can remember thinking about the future of technology as far back as 2001 (but I was only about 6/7 years old in 2001, so that shouldn't count). 2020 was always so distant because it was unlived.

 

2004 is from that weird middle age of the internet, after the Wild West of the '90s but right before the start of the "Modern" internet that kicked up around 2005. When I think about the technology of 2004, I remember the lingering trend of transparent (really translucent) electronics and the dying days of the Y2K aesthetic. People wanted everything to be futuristic still, but by 2004, that deliberately futuristic look everyone loved/tolerated between '96 and '03 was starting to become gaudy and dated. I wasn't into pop culture really so I didn't notice it much at the time, but now that I'm looking back, there was *definitely* a pop cultural handover around 2003 or so, from the post-Matrix Y2K techno look to "gangsta rap, import car, edgy & gritty" and, most importantly to this post, "minimalist & greeny tech". It's no accident that the iPod ads looked the way they did and started in 2004 (or was it 2005?). This was when feature phones were nearing their peak and were packed with more storage space than ever before, but the idea of streaming music videos or holding video conferences on your phone was still sci-fi for the future. 

 

Remember when ring tones were the hot new thing, and you were cool if your ring tone was an actual song rather than some stock collection of notes? Remember when there was that boom of sorts for robotics that completely flopped (though we did get the Roomba out of it)? Remember when even the best Hollywood CGI looked like it came from an Xbox 360 game? Remember when news pages were relatively cramped because they didn't have ads or flashy graphics, but did have a lot of 180x380 jpegs and the whole thing felt like more of an afterthought rather than their main means of presenting information? Remember when video game graphics were in a weird intermediate period (i.e. the BEST period) between 90s crusty 3D and late 2000s crusty HD, which led to "realistic" games looking both realistic and surreal at the same time while stylized/cartoony games all looked like plastic toy models? Remember when environmental awareness was just starting to really take off as a mainstream concern (again, I mean) and sustainability started becoming a real issue? Remember when solar power was a literal Nothing, back when even having a single gigawatt of total global installed capacity was an amazing feat? Remember when no one really cared about artificial intelligence except the boffins deep in the field and sci-fi nerds? Remember when some researchers tried to make cars that could consistently drive themselves in a desert, and literally every single one failed? Remember when virtual reality was a joke that only existed as broken dreams from a decade in the past, except for a few ultra-bulky military and clinical headsets that you were never going to see yourself?

It's basically the example year of what I mean by "foundational futurism." The Dot Com hype is dead. The social media hype hasn't started. Just this intermediate era that has no identity of its own.

 

Try to imagine the year 2020 when you're still living in an era where a cell phone, video camera, PDA, personal computer, mp3 player, mp4 player, watch, and flashlight are separate gadgets.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#6
Dominicmgm

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What interests me here is the article about a fictional movie called Tickle. Here's what I found came true, what may and what didn't.
True parts:

  • There are photorealistic animated movies in the 2010s, e.g. The Lego Movie, The Lion King remake, but almost none of these have animated humans (or at least ones animated photorealistically). The Adventures of Tintin and the ImageMovers mocap films (except Monster House) seem to be the only attempts so far.
  • Digital resurrections have happened, not only in movies (Paul Walker in Furious 7, Peter Cushing in Rogue One) but in concerts as well (Tupac Shakur, Whitney Houston, etc.)
  • Animated movie budgets from Pixar, etc are still in the $150-200 million range.
  • Due to deepfakes, videos can be fabricated so that a politician says something different.

Undecided parts:

  • James Dean has been cast decades after his death in Finding Jack, but I highly doubt it'll actually come out due to the initial controversy and the lack of news since November.

False parts:

  • It's still difficult to make a convincing looking photorealistic CGI human due to the "uncanny valley".
  • People are still interested in cartoony films from the likes of Pixar, Disney, etc.
  • No such movie like Tickle exists (yet).


#7
Erowind

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2004 ps2 cartoon cgi games are the best. Imagining This year's msft flight sim from then was pure fantasy. I think the first time I started thinking about the future was with all those wonderfully weird y2k aesthetic cartoons on Disney xD like Code Lyoko and later on 4kids Chaotic. Wow! I watched Chaotic as a Sunday morning cartoon. What even is streaming in a world like that. All said, the serious futurist brain started kicking in after getting into novels like The Foundation Trilogy which didn't happen until 2011ish or so when I was 13. My brain rocketed straight past the near term and went to the 22nd century and beyond, with help of many a new age youtube video ripping off the timeline.





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