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Poll will the Corona virus cause a global recession


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8 replies to this topic

Poll: Will the Carrona Virus cause a global recession (11 member(s) have cast votes)

Will the Carrona Virus cause a global recession

  1. yes, fututre gdp recordings will show we are already in global recession (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. yes, in the next month the global recession will start (2 votes [18.18%])

    Percentage of vote: 18.18%

  3. yes, between 1 and 3 months from now the global recession will start (1 votes [9.09%])

    Percentage of vote: 9.09%

  4. yes, between 4 and 6 months from now the global recession will start (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  5. yes, between 7 and 12 from now months the global recession will start (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  6. in 1 to 2 years in the global recession will start (3 votes [27.27%])

    Percentage of vote: 27.27%

  7. in more then 2 years the global recession will start (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  8. A recession will not occur due to carrona virus (5 votes [45.45%])

    Percentage of vote: 45.45%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1
10 year march

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Please do not post here unless very relevant to the poll there is a dedicated Corona virus thread but with no polls

 

Recession time will be remembered when data comes out showing two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

 

Recession beginning is the time the first quarter of negative economic growth begins



#2
Erowind

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I think there will be a recession, but if the coronavirus is involved at all it will only be a factor not the whole cause. The economy may well be content to tumble regardless of the virus either way.

#3
wjfox

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Not sure if there'll be a global recession (yet), but it will significantly slow growth. A lot of bad news coming out today.



#4
Outlook

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I don't think a major recession will occur just because production stops for a while. There has to be a major issue with the structure of the economy itself for a global recession to occur. My amateur thoughts are that after the disease blows over people will go back to their jobs and meet the demand again. After all, it's only the old and sick that are at mortal risk from the virus, not the working class.
Outlook's secret song of the ~week: https://youtu.be/Gnyr3sbdKkU

#5
Yuli Ban

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A recession could easily start because of slow manufacturing.

What keeps the stock market afloat, however, is high consumer confidence partially wrought by Trump coupled with stock buybacks. Corporations buying back their own stock means there's less money being reinvested for capital itself, reducing their ability to fend off a downturn in lieu of short-term gains. 
 
 
Now consider that China's basically the workshop of the world. A lot of business starts & goes through China. If manufacturing there is disrupted, supplies in many field are affected. In some cases, entire businesses can't function. 17% of the world economy belongs to China. That's almost a fifth. If China slows down, we all do. If China sneezes, we catch a cold. 
 
That's likely why the media is downplaying the coronavirus so much. They know that, if the truth came out, investors would freak out & consumer confidence would plunge. 
 
Trump inspires so much investor confidence that he alone might be the reason why we avoided a recession so far, rather than because of any policy or systemic strength. They are so eager to do business and Trump is eager to avoid recession; at worst, leave it for the Democrat. Trump loses in 2020? Democratic president immediately gets sworn in to an economic downturn and a Republic midterm victory in 2022 & presidency in 2024. 
Coronavirus probably screwed up the timing, which is another reason why they're trying to downplay it. The recession was coming, but not for another year. But if China stops now, the recession could start as soon as April, and once things unwind, holy shit.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#6
Outlook

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^Yea, you're right. I did some more reading and found out that I'm economically dumb.

https://courses.lume...conomic-growth/

"The recession of 1974-75 was caused by adverse supply shocks, primarily the Oil Crisis which occurred when the Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) embargoed petroleum exports, driving up the price of oil. Since oil is used in the manufacturing of most goods and services, this was a very large supply shock. This recession was, at the time, the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression."
Outlook's secret song of the ~week: https://youtu.be/Gnyr3sbdKkU

#7
Erowind

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/\ the OPEC oil crisis rivals the great recession. My mum has told me stories from when she was a kid of long lines of cars waiting for hours to get their gas ration.

#8
10 year march

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Is recession here now or just another false alarm

#9
TranscendingGod

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Is recession here now or just another false alarm

Certain countries are already at high risk of recession, and the coronavirus exacerbates the problem. However, the more likely scenario with most countries not severely impacted is a significant but non-recession inducing slowdown in economic growth.


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 





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