I'm trying to make an equation similar to Moore's Law (but for all technological progression; not just computers). I will call it the Technodynamics Equation and will share full credit to anyone who helps me. Basically I want to create a formula that takes the time math of the first flight (1903) to breaking the sound barrier (1947), double it to show how technological progression is rapidly increasing every year, and then come up with a final answer to the date of when FTL travel or breaking the "light barrier" will be achieved. I have the innovative idea but my mind is not smart enough to do the math.
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Is anyone super good at math and can help me with this futurist equation?
Posted 11 February 2020 - 09:52 PM
Posted 11 February 2020 - 10:05 PM
Wow, that sounds interesting, and something I'd never thought of.
You wouldn't necessarily need an equation. How about just taking the fastest speeds achieved over time – e.g. fastest planes, and then rockets, deep space probes such as Voyager and New Horizons, etc. – to see if a trend appears. And then extrapolate further.
We don't actually know if FTL travel is possible, so the graph might have to stop at 1 c, with anything further being emphasised as wildly speculative.
Posted 12 February 2020 - 12:52 AM
I think how we travel around the Universe in the future will be stranger than we can imagine right now. It might be completely different than the FTL concept we're used to.
Just like people in the dark ages could never imagine we would be flying in rods of metal with metal sheets protruding from the sides to help us take advantage of the aerodynamics of the air, stuff those people had utterly no idea.
I think trying to extrapolate using past achievements might be misleading. It doesn't hurt to try though.
Posted 12 February 2020 - 01:38 AM
Posted 12 February 2020 - 04:20 AM
Speed of transportation doesn't even increase exponentially, we've had spaceflight for 60+ years and rockets haven't gotten much faster during that whole time. What you want isn't even possible because different techs progress at different rates, but most individual fields will follow some sort of S-curve.
Posted 12 February 2020 - 05:38 PM
That's partially because our propulsion methods haven't changed either.
Foundational technologies will eventually leapfrog us to new horizons, but only if those technologies are actually commercialized. Right now, there are still things holding back nuclear propulsion, solar sails, and whatnot. Some of those obstacles are external too: there's no market for space resources, so no one's going to fund space exploration in large enough amounts to actually supercharge the tech needed for nuclear/railgun/solar sail/high-energy ionic/etc. propulsion.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.
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