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The endgame of the Coronavirus Epidemic


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#1
SastangFever

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What will be the final death count and total number infected?

There has to be at least one person from the future here.



#2
PhoenixRu

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What will be the final death count and total number infected?

There has to be at least one person from the future here.

 

I am this person. Here are three country examples:

 

1) China. Epidemic started in December 2019 and already suppressed, almost no new cases:

 

Spoiler

 

2) South Korea. Epidemic will soon be suppressed, the number of active cases is not growing, within next month(s) the graph will look like China's:

 

Spoiler

 

3) Italy. Everything is only beginning. But again, sooner or later, their quarantine measures will bring the desired results:

 

Spoiler

 

In short, I think this epidemic will reach its peak within 2-3 next months, and then will be slowly suppressed. The official death toll will be far below 1 million people (excluding countries with knowingly unreliable statistics like North Korea or Ukraine). It will have a huge short-term impact on the world economy, but almost no impact on world demography.

 

PS and yes, I know this "almost no impact" will sound a devilish cynicism for those who will lose their loved ones. But there is a sad and wise saying: "death of a man is tragedy, death of millions is statistics."



#3
Jakob

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I predict it will burn out and be declared over by the end of the year. Definitely fewer than a million deaths, probably fewer than 100k. As pointed out above, China already has it under control.



#4
funkervogt

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I predict it will burn out and be declared over by the end of the year. Definitely fewer than a million deaths, probably fewer than 100k. As pointed out above, China already has it under control.

What's to stop the pandemic from flaring up again in China? All it would take is for them to lower their guard and resume normal life, and for a small number of infected foreigners to enter the country. 



#5
wjfox

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A vaccine could take 12-18 months. This won't be "over" until then, and could easily flare up again in subsequent years. Many experts are predicting millions of deaths.



#6
starspawn0

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Expert infectious disease panel estimates that 40% to 70% of Americans will be infected:

 

https://www.linkedin...an-shlain-m-d-/

 

I personally doubt it will be that high.  Robin Hanson, the libertarian economist, has been trying to get people to bet on the number killed.  I can't remember the number he settled on, but seem to recall it was > 10 million by 2022.



#7
SastangFever

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I predict it will burn out and be declared over by the end of the year. Definitely fewer than a million deaths, probably fewer than 100k. As pointed out above, China already has it under control.

Do you believe in the Chinese numbers? China says they have less than 100 flu deaths annually while America reports several tens of thousands of people dying every year from the flu with 1/4th the population of China and a more advanced health care system. 

 

https://www.caixingl...-101382286.html



#8
Set and Meet Goals

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It will become a new shitty disease people get and die from it won't be as bad as something like cancer however it will be bad.

Maybe a 0.3% fatality rate (triple that of flu) after immunitys are built up and vaccines are given

#9
Erowind

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As others are saying even it's initially contained it could flair up again. Countries might get sick of quarantines as it will be harder to implement them due to the economic cost. Until there's a vaccine I'd expect containment to cyclically succeed and fail. Outbreaks --> containment measures --> suppression --> low case numbers/apparent lack of cases --> apathy --> outbreaks...



#10
Raklian

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As others are saying even it's initially contained it could flair up again. Countries might get sick of quarantines as it will be harder to implement them due to the economic cost. Until there's a vaccine I'd expect containment to cyclically succeed and fail. Outbreaks --> containment measures --> suppression --> low case numbers/apparent lack of cases --> apathy --> outbreaks...

 

And they're also saying it's going to be seasonal just like the flu, impossible to eradicate unless we create the universal anti-viral. 

 

I think investment in public health will take a larger share of government budgets in the years to come.


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#11
Yuli Ban

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impossible to eradicate unless we create the universal anti-viral. 

Universal anti-viral.... hmmm....

nanobot-1-825989.jpg


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#12
Computron

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What will be the final death count and total number infected?
There has to be at least one person from the future here.

 
I am this person. Here are three country examples:
 
1) China. Epidemic started in December 2019 and already suppressed, almost no new cases:
 
Spoiler

 
2) South Korea. Epidemic will soon be suppressed, the number of active cases is not growing, within next month(s) the graph will look like China's:
 
Spoiler

 
3) Italy. Everything is only beginning. But again, sooner or later, their quarantine measures will bring the desired results:
 
Spoiler

 
In short, I think this epidemic will reach its peak within 2-3 next months, and then will be slowly suppressed. The official death toll will be far below 1 million people (excluding countries with knowingly unreliable statistics like North Korea or Ukraine). It will have a huge short-term impact on the world economy, but almost no impact on world demography.
 
PS and yes, I know this "almost no impact" will sound a devilish cynicism for those who will lose their loved ones. But there is a sad and wise saying: "death of a man is tragedy, death of millions is statistics."

I predict it will burn out and be declared over by the end of the year. Definitely fewer than a million deaths, probably fewer than 100k. As pointed out above, China already has it under control.


https://www.worldome...fo/coronavirus/

Slowly being suppressed, comrade?

Less than 1 million jakob?

#13
PhoenixRu

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Slowly being suppressed, comrade?

 

Well, everyone can be wrong. Even the ones as smart and educated as myself.

 

Seriously speaking, this post was written in march, when everything was only beginning.

 

First, I greatly underestimated the cynicism of ruling elites which, as it turned out, have openly preferred the extra losses of of human lives over the extra losses of money. And second, back in march many people feared covid will kill as much as 5-10% of world population. Here I was rather right saying about "almost no impact on world demography."



#14
wjfox

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I predict it will burn out and be declared over by the end of the year. Definitely fewer than a million deaths, probably fewer than 100k.

 

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#15
Computron

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I predict it will burn out and be declared over by the end of the year. Definitely fewer than a million deaths, probably fewer than 100k. As pointed out above, China already has it under control.


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