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Bill Gates predicted the pandemic and predicts dangerous AI

AI bill gates elon musk prediction

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#1
funkervogt

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Bill Gates' 2015 TED Talk where he discussed the world's unreadiness for a pandemic has gone viral (no pun intended) because of how closely it describes the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

 

 

In 2015, Gates also made the following future prediction: 

 

 

Midway through the discussion on Wednesday, Gates was asked what personal computing will look like in 2045. Gates responded by asserting that the next 30 years will be a time of rapid progress.

 
"Even in the next 10 problems like vision and speech understanding and translation will be very good," he wrote. "Mechanical robot tasks like picking fruit or moving a hospital patient will be solved. Once computers/robots get to a level of capability where seeing and moving is easy for them then they will be used very extensively."
 
..."I am in the camp that is concerned about super intelligence," Gates wrote. "First the machines will do a lot of jobs for us and not be super intelligent. That should be positive if we manage it well. A few decades after that though the intelligence is strong enough to be a concern. I agree with Elon Musk and some others on this and don't understand why some people are not concerned."

https://www.washingt...-not-concerned/

 

He was probably referencing Elon Musk's widely publicized remarks about the future AI threat, made just three months earlier: 

 

 

I think we should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I were to guess like what our biggest existential threat is, it’s probably that. So we need to be very careful with the artificial intelligence. Increasingly scientists think there should be some regulatory oversight maybe at the national and international level, just to make sure that we don’t do something very foolish. With artificial intelligence we are summoning the demon. In all those stories where there’s the guy with the pentagram and the holy water, it’s like yeah he’s sure he can control the demon. Didn’t work out.

 



#2
starspawn0

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Yes, well others have predicted this as well, and have been sounding the alarm that "we're not prepared" for years.  E.g.:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/marynmck

 

But they're not rich and famous like Gates, so their message isn't heard.



#3
caltrek

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It sounds like Gate's message wasn't heard either, at least not by the Trump administration.

 

Correct me if I am wrong.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#4
Cyber_Rebel

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If we seriously just had to have any billionaire president, I wish it would have been someone like him. He's no leftist, but he's at least a pragmatic technocrat who would have had the U.S. ready for a majority of wide ranging issues. Of course, he himself said he isn't best suited in that position, so maybe an advisory like role is better. 

 

Hope he's wrong about dangerous A.I., but maybe this will raise awareness about that issue to governments too. 



#5
Erowind

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The reason why others aren't concerned is because consciousness is a much harder problem than it's oft made out to be. Even if we make an AI with slightly higher than human level intelligence and run it in parallel in the billions it will still take a proportional amount of effort from those AIs to build something substantively more intelligent than themselves as it did for us to build them. It's like asking monkey's to somehow understand a human brain. There's a fundamental gap in ability there. Also just because he's right about one thing many people were right about doesn't mean he's right about a different thing.

#6
funkervogt

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Also just because he's right about one thing many people were right about doesn't mean he's right about a different thing.

Bill Gates' education and career were focused on computers and software, so if anything, his predictions about things in his area of expertise (A.I.) should be seen as more credible than his predictions about things outside of it (disease pandemics). 







Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: AI, bill gates, elon musk, prediction

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