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[Outlook]

Forgive me if there's one already, I tried searching for one but couldn't find any. Living in a current international catastrophe has made me interested in imagining world war 3 scenarios again. This is one I was working on now while quarantining.

I won't bring in COVID-19, as personally it's still too soon and it doesn't change the story much.

 

[The Start]

China's bloodless takeover of Taiwan is complete. The CPC managed a long con that combined growing economic and diplomatic strength to coax the Taiwanese government into accepting its one-China hegemony. The Taiwanese government doesn't want to become an international pariah as it continues to face economic downturns and political manipulations at the hands of CPC pressure.

The Taiwanese people begin protest, outraged that their government could be so easily sold out. They start demanding for the abdication of the current Taiwanese presidency and calling for American intervention.

The CPC does not directly engage in quelling unrest, instead going off of experience and letting the Taiwanese government handle its own people, while secretly sending support in the form of anti-protest equipment, training and instruction.

The CPC expects the US to retaliate little. How could they not based on recent US isolationist policy? Its withdrawals and failures in Afghanistan and Syria, its relatively lax response for Crimea. They expect sanctions but really, how is the US going to sanction China? Mainland China goes for the Taiwanese take-over with great confidence in its success. Nevertheless their military is kept on high-alert. Better safe than sorry.

In the US public, anti-China sentiment reaches a new height. The Taiwanese protests and eventually riots are focused on with much greater emphasis and vitriol than the Hong Kong protests. Strong anti-Chinese rhetoric surmounts the bi-partisan divide. It was a coup, it wasn't a peaceful takeover. This is an American ally akin to Japan or South Korea being swallowed by a new threat. Yellow Peril rhetoric is everywhere across the Anglosphere while the EU and other allies nervously shift in their seats as to what this will entail for them.

The American government views China's takeover of Taiwan gravely. It's a direct attack on the American world order. If the US can't keep Taiwan safe as an ally it'll be a huge blow to its other diplomatic relationships. The US calls on its Allies to form a coalition that will be sent to resecure Taiwan and bring order. Most of the EU decline, viewing it as unnecessary and out of their scope. However countries in the core anglosphere sign up to help, as well as a significant group of south-asian states who view it as an opportunity to finally retaliate against China in the south china sea conflict.

In the meanwhile, the Taiwanese military is in disarray as its torn by the political fragmentation occuring in its country. Pro-CPC and Anti-CPC movements grow with Pro-CPC being far more superior in resources despite most of the population being anti-CPC. Coup attempts happen but fail, military splinter groups form seeking shelter in the interior mountains, forcing China to become more militarily involved in the country's seizure. The current Taiwanese government is now made to fully subdue. China has been under extreme anxiety as they see things escalate beyond what they expected so in order to finally get things over with, they make the Taiwanese government accept mainland Chinese military aid in order to "stabilise" their country. China does this to ensure that the US doesn't try to "stablise" the country first.

In US negotiations with China, the US demands a full withdrawal of CPC troops from Taiwan, but China doesn't balk. Taiwan is just too close to China for it not to have a major influence in its other geopolitical issues. If they withdraw and secede to US demands, then it sets them back decades of geopolitical progress and this is something China can't afford. This is also a chance for them to break out from the US sphere of domination into a world order where they are now at least equal on stage.  These negotiations thus breakdown, and their respective governments prepare for further action.

The US, once about to storm in to Taiwan now has to reshape strategy. Nukes are being used as deterrents by both sides, China especially. The US first attempts a proxy war but the nature of the conflict makes it extremely hard to make gains. China has the island on lockdown, and being so close to the mainland makes it nigh impossible to covertly send much aid to the anti-CPC factions. Frustration is mounting in the the US government as the consequences of losing Taiwan begin to show in other business and diplomatic effforts.

Military preparations are made for a full declaration of war on the now pro-CPC government of Taiwan by the coalition, still wanting to avoid direct idea of war with the CPC. The US wants to make this war as much about Taiwan as possible, something China understands and is willing to play along with only so far as to avoid a total nuclear holocaust. But make no mistake, all's fair in love and war, and in a war between the two most powerful states ever to exist, fractures will reach the world's furthest corners.

[MAD world]

Everyone worried for the use of nuclear weapons in the Taiwan war. Indeed it was a shock to the world when the Chinese navy-- extremely outgunned-- fired a naval warhead to even the playing field. In the eyes of the CPC, their back was against the wall. The use of nuclear weapons began to become more and more tempting in its naval theater as opposed to a humiliating defeat against a much more experienced and advanced naval enemy.

The tactical nuclear warheads were small and strictly used against coalition navy ships. The coalition was outraged, but in war what more could outrage do?  The coalition's war machinery would ramp up significantly, in American public discourse conscription is becoming a serious issue and proposal and military investment is climbing steeply. The coalition at first didn't wish to retaliate against the CPC with their own nuclear weapons, fearing where an escalation may go but eventually it was a weapon they couldn't afford to ignore any more. The tactical nukes worked too well for the CPC who themselves used it sparingly to try and avoid escalation. It wasn't to be. With the continued use of CPC nukes, the coalition would come to fire an extremely powerful nuke near a Chinese naval base or during a battle as a warning and deterrent.

This lead to both sides negotiating on the use of nuclear weaponry. The talks involved Russia who warned that any escalation of a nuclear war by the US against China would lead to Russian involvement but that this condition will only hold if China's use of tactical weaponry doesn't extend into civilian centers.

[Wild-Fires]

For the enemies of China and the United States, this new conflict is a godsend. Public focus is placed solely on the conflict. World War 3 is shouted around while pundits predict the entry of Russia into the war, or the Chinese invasion of South Korea. However the war will turn to occur in a much more malignant manner.

Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and a huge swath of African countries suddenly realize that the US gaze is gone with most of its military resources being shifted to face the eastern giant.

Iran was the first to take advantage of the shift in political climate. Annexation of parts of Iraq, and a full Iran-backed coup in Iraq occurs with Iran announcing very loudly that they also have nukes. Other countries don't buy it, and a GCC coalition begins a new front in Iraq and Syria. Israel decides to stay out of the war directly yet still offers aid for this new coalition against Iran. The US also begins a new theatre of operation against Iran, withdrawing its limited amount of troops from Iraq to bases in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan. Turkey adopts a stance of neutrality.

The last thing Russia wants to do is begin a conflict with the EU. Instead, the war brewing in the middle-east gains most of its interest. Syria, Iraq and Iran now in total war require Russian support to make it through, and Russia gives it.

The war in the middle east becomes more destructive than the Syrian civil was. The mass mobilization of armies upends everyone, and the migration crisis that it causes dwarfs any kind in history.

In Africa, Egypt begins operations against Ethiopia to destroy the Nile dam, and regimes that required foreign support and backing to survive start to fall into disarray. Separatist groups, insurgencies both religious and ethnic spread across the continent as conflict spreads conflict. Europe begins to expend its resources into quelling all this brewing unrest as well as involve itself in the war in the middle east. The millions of migrants that threaten to flood into the continent as a consequence of the wars and famines cause fervent anxiety among much of the political elite as this wave of migration will cause more instability than the last one ever did.

So unlike the first migrant crisis, the EU begins to hold a much harder line. Refugee camps are set up in many different centers, all martially managed. The conditions worsen as time goes on and the resources to manage these camps deteriorate. Whole cities come into France, Spain, Italy, and Greece in the span of a month.

In Kashmir, a more ominous story is beginning to unfold. Unlike those involved in the Taiwan theater, India and Pakistan don't have the history or experience of dealing with nuclear diplomacy. As the Kashmir conflict flares, there are worries that nuclear weapons will be used there as well but so long as direct invasion is avoided, the Indian subcontinent is safe.

[Korea]

It wasn't long before the war in Taiwan spilled over.

Both powers had been eyeing Korea with nervous hesitation. Both sides knew that a war in korea would make a largely naval and island conflict into a full-scale land war, bringing them that much closer to Nuclear war. The US had no desire to bring in another nuclear nation into the war but if either country begins losing Taiwan, or if a stalemate is reached, or if either governments believe in escalation, a desperate attempt at another front will start.

Both North and South Korea have already cut ties with each other, following after their allegiances. The North Korean regime is scared. It has lasted decades finding relative self-stability in a post-soviet environment. It's no longer interested in war so much as it is its own survival and this world war threatens it. The North Korean people want war to protect its ally, sure, but the regime doesn't.

The US calls for an invasion of North Korea, and again North Korea specifically. An operation is set in motion to dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons and it's relatively successful, North Korea fails to launch any of its nuclear weapons in time. The war in Korea starts with large gains for the allies before China is again able to begin a serious defense, but it isn't until Manchuria until the defense stops the advance and in a counter-attack China again begins its reuse of nuclear weaponry.

The occupation of North Korea had gone far more smoothly than expected. Guerrilla warfare and resistance has barely occurred. Quick arrests are made of North Korean officials who didn't run to China while most other North Koreans either escaped to China or stayed to begin a "denazification" campaign of previous DPRK propaganda. The rest died.

Russia is also watching carefully what's unfolding in its North Korean border.

The use of nuclear weapons by China forces the coalition to adopt a new mode of warfare. Unable to use nuclear weapons directly against Chinese population centers. Anti-Nuclear weapons technology receives significant investment. The arms race brings both sides into styles of war that we can only dream about. The incorporation of technology into weaponry moves from capitalist perversion to pure military necessity, and the weapons that result from the streamlining of progress will baffle us with every breakthrough. For example, the idea of space weaponry is involved again. Imagine watching from your home as earth to space missiles soar above to clear any foreign satellites that are either unidentified or identified with the enemy.

 

 

 

And that's all I've written. I'm not going for complete accuracy, it's not a research study or anything just how I imagine world war 3 playing out. What are your world war 3 scenarios?

[joe00uk]

I actually wrote a WWIII scenario back in 2018. I'll just post that one because I really can't be bothered re-working the whole thing to fit in with the real world timeline of the past two years. It begins with a severe global recession developing at the end of 2018. I think most of this is basically prelude.

 

10 October 2018 

 

The Black Wednesday Stock Market Crash on this day heralded the onset of a new recession in the global capitalist economy. In the previous three years, there had been a decline in corporate profitability. More recently, the production of new value in the capitalist economy had stagnated, along with the growth in employment. After the central banks had raised interest rates, many capitalists (as well as ordinary proletarian consumers) could not access loans as easily as they had done before when interest rates were lower. They had a diminished ability to invest and expand production. However, the expansion of production had by this time ceased to be profitable. A crisis of overproduction was once again the plague of global capitalism. Banks could no longer “roll over” the late debt payments that had built up to extraordinary proportions during the 2013-18 “boom years” when there was a plentiful availability of “easy credit”. The inflation of this credit eventually could not be pushed any further. It dried up, and the over-trading of the “boom years” collapsed.

 

October-December 2018

 

Like in 2007-09, the crisis first became apparent in the residential construction industry. As the supply of credit began to dry up, mortgage loans became harder to get. Therefore, housing construction began to decline. Construction jobs in residential construction became harder to get as housing started to head downward. Other consumer durables such automobiles were soon affected as well. Declining residential construction and declining auto sales soon affected many other branches of industrial production.

 

Initially, therefore, the downturn seemed to be largely confined to housing, auto and other durable consumer industries. Some Department I industries, especially those involved in producing raw materials for housing and auto industries were also affected during the initial stage of the downturn. For example, lumber—used to construct houses—and auto parts also began to weaken as the industrial cycle peaked. The growth in employment that marked the boom levelled out, and unemployment began to rise. But at this stage the total number of jobs did not decline by much, and even rose slightly for a while.

 

January-March 2019

 

During this initial stage of the downturn, discussion developed in the press on whether what they called a “slowdown” would develop into a full-scale “recession.” Business reporters interviewed the professional economists, some working for brokerage houses and other academic economics who were employed as professors by university economic departments. The overwhelming consensus was that that time, unlike in the past, the slowdown would not develop into a full-scale recession. The consensus forecast was that in about “six months” business will be recovering from the “slowdown” and full recession would be avoided.

 

The downturn, which was initially confined to consumer durables and those branches of Department I that produce raw materials and other means of production for the consumer durable industries, now spread to the rest of Department I, especially those sectors of Department I that produce means of production for industries that produce for other Department I industries. The downturn, which at first affected only a few industries, now engulfed virtually the entire economy—with the exception of the gold mining and refining industry, which moved counter-cyclically to the rest of the economy.

 

April 2019

 

Six months after the arrival of the new recession, unemployment was once again approaching the level of 10% in some countries. In March, Great Britain formally left the EU without having secured much in the way of favourable trade deals and so became by far the worst affected economy of the crisis. Many major banks across the world had collapsed. Several were nationalised by their respective governments, but unlike in the 2007-09 crisis, this failed to stabilise the financial sector of the economy. Bank failure spread like a plague across the world. The status of the Dollar itself was threatened as foreign investors in the US economy sold their Dollar investments in favour of others in the Rouble and the Yuan. China stopped buying up any more US debt. On 16 April 2019, the US labelled Russia and China “currency manipulators”. Mass demonstrations in the West became commonplace as they had been during the Occupy movement of 2011-12. Membership of anti-establishment parties, left and right, began to see huge expansion - including openly communist and fascist parties. 

 

May-June 2019

 

From May, the US entered a mad rush to adopt the most protectionist policies they could to secure what was left of the profits of their own capitalists from the capitalists of China and Russia. China and Russia suffered far less than their Western counterparts, and only entered a very moderate recession unlike the West which had not seen such a severe crisis since 1929-33. Russia and China responded with their own sanctions on the US. Several Eastern European nations tried to impose protectionist policies but their attempts were thwarted by Brussels and Berlin using the EU bureaucratic machinery. Britain imposed protectionist policies towards the end of May and in general echoed the actions of the US. Unemployment in the West now commonly surpassed 10%. The Western capitalist governments and corporations began to impose wage cuts on those workers who remained employed from the middle of June. Waves of strike action broke out, although initially they were easily dispersed with the threat of unemployment.

 

July-September 2019

 

Eurosceptic unrest flared throughout Eastern and Southern Europe from July. The policies of the European Union were seen to be protecting the economies of Northern and Western Europe at the expense of the ‘periphery’. The first roots of new Eastern European communist parties were laid, although were dwarfed by the surge of fascism. In Western Europe and North America, strikes became more organised and militant. In the US, the far-right continued to have the upper hand over leftists. Grassroots movements diverged fundamentally now from the 2011-12 Occupy movement in that now the structures of these movements became far better organised. Real independent movements were established. Unemployment was reaching 15% in many Western countries.

 

The share of the US in the global capitalist market dramatically declined, being snapped up by a rising Russian and Chinese-led New World Order. Russia and China, although experiencing recession themselves, were in a far better position than the West and replaced Western influence in Third World neo-colonies with their own. China continued to open new military bases in East Africa. Having already constructed a military base in Djibouti, China agreed with Ethiopia to build a military base there. Russia agreed with Sudan to build a military base in the country. During this time, China proved a successful mediator between Ethiopia and Eritrea, two previously hostile nations. This was all to secure the Red Sea shipping lanes for the ‘One Belt One Road’ project. The United States was opposed to the Russian and Chinese initiatives and tried to counter their influence in the region, but failed dismally. Post-war reconstruction in Syria provided handsome investment returns to the Russian and Chinese capitalists. Russia and China also invested in the US-backed Kurdistan now that the US capitalists were too weak to invest in anything and could not keep control of the Kurds for long. Kurdistan became dependent on Russia and China and was eventually persuaded to reintegrate with Syria in late July on the promise that they would retain a significant degree of autonomy. This infuriated the American ruling class, seeing yet again another clear sign of their demise on the global imperialist stage.

 

The ruling class of the Philippines turned their allegiance to China. The US tried to engineer an anti-Duterte “colour revolution” in the Philippines in early August but Duterte responded by declaring martial law days later. The “colour revolution” was quickly put down and civilian government returned within a month. The US army was ordered out of the country in the beginning of September, but they refused to leave. China was supportive of Duterte but was hesitant to concretely involve itself, not yet wanting to risk direct confrontation with American forces. Duterte ordered the Filipino army to confiscate all assets held by the US military in the Philippines and to deport all US military personnel. The Filipino army, however, being loyal to the US, refused to carry out these orders and engineered a coup which ousted Duterte in mid-September, to the ire of Russia and China. Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia continued to deteriorate, and war scares became a frequent feature of the news. American threats to resurrect the Korean War continued to anger the people of Asia. The US increased its military presence all over its sphere of influence in Asia. Russia and China reversed their previous compliance with anti-DPRK sanctions and began to lift the blockade from the end of September. It was decided that strengthening the DPRK was now more beneficial to them than detrimental. They would prove a key ally against the desperate American Empire.

 

The Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela slowly began to take on more radical, more Marxist-Leninist, characteristics. The US was decreasingly able to fund opposition to Maduro. The local capitalists grew ever more exhausted. Leftist opposition to Michel Temer’s neoliberal regime in Brazil gathered pace. In Colombia, a splinter group from FARC attracted much support and resumed their insurgency in mid-August. The Turkish ruling class continued to be divided over supporting the US and NATO, and supporting the Moscow-Beijing axis. Fascists and communists frequently clashed in the streets of Greece. Many feared a civil war could soon break out. NATO advanced its plans to integrate the Ukraine into the camp from the end of August.

 

October-December 2019

 

Civil unrest gripped many of the major American cities for weeks at a time. States of emergency were often declared and the National Guard was frequently sent to suppress popular activity. Fascist paramilitaries became increasingly active. Fascists were regularly promoted to higher positions in the police force, the army, the judiciary, and public office. Communists in the USA lagged behind. So-called “race riots” began to flare up. The US became an increasingly authoritarian state. Unemployment crept towards 20%. In the year since the outbreak of the crisis, the number of Americans living below the poverty line increased by approximately 25%, from just under 50,000,000 to 62,500,000. By the end of 2019, this number was over 65,000,000. One in five Americans lived in poverty.

 

Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland were all demanding exit from the EU. In desperation, Brussels froze their assets and foisted burdensome sanctions on them immediately after. NATO continued to build up on the Russian border. The neo-Nazi junta in Ukraine escalated their anti-Russian rhetoric. The US built up its forces in the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan. Russia and China reciprocated the aggressive actions of the US and NATO. China increased its activities in the South China Sea. Crimea became heavily militarised, and Russia built up its military presence along its western border to protect against NATO. Israel became increasingly hostile to Iran, and Iran threatened Israel with attack. Israel de facto allied itself with Saudi Arabia. In Western Europe, the communists generally seemed to have the upper hand, whereas the reverse was true in Eastern Europe. In Western Europe, however, the far-right was catching up in organisation, even if they had been behind. Some factions among the elite bought off several far-right parties. China further developed its own international financial institutions for imposing its own colonial domination on the Third World and replacing the fading hegemony of Washington. Russia aided in its advancement as it also grew stronger relative to the declining West. 

 

January-March 2020

 

China delivered anti-ballistic missile defence systems to North Korea to be placed along the DMZ in response to the American THAAD deployment in South Korea in 2017. Russia made its own contributions. North Korea experienced a boom in living standards during this period and was on a fast track to becoming a developed nation now that it was able to finance the extraction and export of its $6-10 trillion worth of minerals and ores. The Ukraine finally acceded to NATO and accepted proposals for the construction of new NATO military bases. The Ukrainian junta was becoming more organised as a government at this time, and the chaotic jockeying for power among factions and individuals that had dominated the 2014-19 period had calmed down. The UK, despite being the worst affected nation by the Depression, reversed its military spending cuts as it prepared for the new imperialist war. The nations of Europe were increasingly under pressure to accept Russian and Chinese investment into their economies, desperate for any kind of amelioration of the crisis. The peripheral nations of the EU became restless, and Brussels in response tightened their bondage.

 

In the USA, fascist paramilitaries occupied areas of the former Confederate states – mostly towns and small cities, starting with Knoxville, Tennessee on 17 February. This was encouraged by the state police and the army, who saw that they were reliable enforcers of the decaying capitalist order. These fascist paramilitaries merged with the local ultra-reactionary Christian elements and governed as a theocracy much of the time. Communist activity flourished along the west coast, and in the northern states, as well as African-American and Hispanic communities throughout the deep South. The American federal state took on increasingly fascist characteristics to suppress the activity of the communists.

 

In Venezuela, the Bolivarian Revolution officially declared itself Marxist-Leninist, instituting a 'Dictatorship of the Proletariat' and the collective ownership of the means of production. The Venezuelan capitalists were forcibly removed from the country and their property was seized. Opposition parties were abolished, and the PSUV became the sole representative of the Venezuelan people. A model of Democratic Centralism was implemented. Collectivisation of the land was one of Venezuela’s first priorities. Venezuela aimed to resemble to Cuban model of Marxism-Leninism. With the removal of the Venezuelan capitalists, Venezuela was able to increase its trade with Cuba, alleviating the blockade there. Many of the problems with shortages that Venezuela was facing quickly improved.

 

China was now constructing military bases all throughout Africa and the Middle East. The pro-NATO faction of the Turkish ruling class won out. In Greece, communist paramilitaries seized control of much of the country, and fascist paramilitaries did the same. A civil war was indeed imminent. The central government was impotent. In the Balkans, communism resurged. General strikes, increasingly led by communists, gripped the already destroyed economies of Italy, Spain, Portugal and France. Far-left movements were gaining traction in Benelux, Germany, Austria, and Scandinavia in response to new savage austerity measures taken by the capitalists that were not seen by them before in the 2007-09 crisis. In Eastern Europe, the communists had finally re-established themselves as a political force although they were hopelessly weak compared to the fascists. Communists regained a presence in Africa after decades of reaction.

 

In the core of what was the 'developed' world, unemployment approached 25%. Generally the same proportion of people in these countries were living below their respective poverty lines. Israel launched new aggressions on the people of Palestine. Russia, China, and Iran slapped new sanctions on Israel. Russia and China continued to seize more of the declining American global market share. The situation was becoming intolerable to the American capitalists and their European and Japanese counterparts.

 

Japan was by now a heavily remilitarised state, increasingly coming to resemble the fascist Japan of the 1930s. Peace movements in Japan and South Korea became so massive, drawing so many hundreds of thousands and even millions of people, and inspiring strike action which caused so much disruption, that the governments of Japan and South Korea adopted draconian measures against them, and were close to banning them outright. India, a comprador ally of the US, became increasingly provocative towards China. The US had moved as much of its production as it could to India to try to detract from the Chinese economy. China launched political and economic sanctions on India and India responded in kind. Pakistan, a Chinese ally, repeatedly condemned India. Indo-Pakistani tensions flared, and sanctions were exchanged between the two nations. India, too, was suffering from the global economic crisis. The Communist parties drew ever more support from the workers and peasants. Kerala became a base of operations for communists across the nation. The communist parties of India were becoming increasingly unified, setting forth many common programmes and aims. Total unification was still yet to be achieved. The Naxalite countryside insurgency intensified. The Hindu nationalists grew progressively unpopular.

 

April-September 2020

 

Unemployment approached 30% by the end of June. In the USA, left-wing paramilitaries seized control of some towns, small cities, and districts of larger cities along the west coast and immigrant communities in the deep South. The African-American community played a particularly crucial role in the American communist organisations. The spread of fascism continued in the south-east. A similar movement sprung up in Texas calling for an independent fascist-theocratic state. Communists and fascists routinely fought with military-grade weapons in the streets of America. Many thousands of Americans left for Canada and for Mexico.

 

Civil war broke out in Greece. The communists primarily had their strongholds in the large cities and stretches of urbanised land whilst the fascists had theirs in the smaller towns and countryside. Turkey closed its borders to Greek refugees. Thousands poured into Albania, Macedonia, and Bulgaria. The fascist junta in the Ukraine launched pogroms against ethnic Russians in the east. The government began to issue instructions preparing for a “final offensive” on the Donbass insurgency. In response, the insurgency intensified and the area in the Donbass occupied by the Novorossiya militants expanded slightly. The fascist junta also restated its claims to Crimea, vowing to take it back from Russia. The communist parties of India entered into negotiations to unify in April. In June, the negotiations saw success and a unified Communist Party of India was born, adopting Leninism. Unemployment in the west edged nearer to 35% by the end of September. The international situation between the US/NATO imperialist camp and the Moscow-Beijing alliance continued to reach new intensities. Warships came close to firing on each other. Sanctions were constantly being fired out. World War could have broken out at any moment.

 

October 2020 – February 2021

 

 

The international situation did not see many new developments during this time. What existed already continued to intensify. A world war between the two opposing camps was inevitable. The economic situation in the west was so dire that by the end of 2020 unemployment was reaching the level of 40%. By the end of February 2021 it averaged 43% across the core nations of the west. This had never been seen before – even in Germany in 1932 it was only 30%. In Russia and China, the figure was less than 10%. The Second Greek Civil War continued to rage. The communists appeared to be at an advantage, but of course the situation was always extremely precarious. The USA declared nationwide martial law on 8 October one month ahead of the presidential election to finally crush the various uprisings and insurgencies. The American military dictatorship still tolerated the fascists and theocrats in the south so long as they could buy them off. On 10 October, there were many protests across the nation denouncing the declaration of martial law, but they were simply fired upon by the army. Russia, China, and Iran rushed their war preparations to completion. The US-NATO axis did the same.

[joe00uk]

Now onto the actual war itself, which gets very scant in detail. There's a whole timeline going to a Fourth World War that I wrote out as well, and then even more basically until there's world socialism lmao.

 

February 2021

 

The Ukraine embarked on its “final offensive” in the Donbass on 15 February with the support of NATO troops. Novorossiyawas crushed just nine days later on 24 February. After its victory in the Donbass, the Ukraine turned its attention to Crimea, demanding Russia cede it to the Ukraine. Russia refused, citing the 2014 referendum. The Ukraine, and its NATO allies now that it was a member, secretly prepared to seize Crimea from Russia.

 

2 March 2021

 

Ukraine sent a spy drone over Sevastopol which was shot down by Russia.

 

3 March 2021

 

The Ukrainian Air Force sent two warplanes within Russian airspace over Crimea. Russia shot both of them down. Ukraine denied that their planes were in Crimean airspace before reasserting their claim to Crimea. Ukraine declared the shooting down of their planes an act of war.

 

4 March 2021

 

The Ukrainian Air Force struck Russian military targets in Sevastopol and Simferopol. Russia reciprocated Ukraine’s declaration of war before responding with strikes on Ukrainian military targets in Odessa. The EU declared a no-fly zone over the Ukraine whilst all international airlines cancelled flights.

 

5 March 2021

 

Ukraine escalated its air campaign over Crimea. Russia then launched its own air campaign over Odessa and Kiev targeting the military and the government.

 

6 March 2021

 

Both the Ukraine and Russia again intensified their respective air campaigns. Russia sent final reinforcements to the Ukrainian border as they prepared for a ground offensive.

 

7 March 2021

 

Russia launched its ground offensive into eastern Ukraine.

 

22 March 2021

 

The Turkish political crisis was reignited when the government decided to send warships to attack Russian forces in Crimea and in the Russian Black Sea coast, beginning Turkish involvement in the war. Anti-war protests escalated into nationwide riots, which were even backed by many anti-NATO Turkish officials and army officers.

 

29 March 2021

 

The Russian offensive into eastern Ukraine was completed with all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper under occupation and Russian/CSTO troops on the borders of Kiev.

 

30 March 2021

 

Russian paratroopers landed in Minsk and peacefully took over government buildings. Hours later, President Lukashenko appeared to welcome Russian “protection” of Belarus against their “enemies in the West”. Russian military personnel and equipment arrived in Belarus that evening. Turkey occupied Armenia.

 

31 March 2021

 

NATO forces on Estonia’s north coast fired on a Russian civilian cruise ship headed from St Petersburg to Helsinki, claiming to have “mistaken” it for a warship. Over 1,000 innocent civilians were killed. Russia declared “total war” against all member states of NATO.

 

1 April 2021

 

The Russian Air Force launched an air campaign against NATO targets in Estonia and Latvia.

 

2 April 2021

 

Russia launched a ground offensive into Estonia, immediately occupying the town of Narva. US paratroopers landed in Taipei to seize control of Taiwan. China responded by sending a fleet of warships to Taiwan to establish some degree of control over the situation. Several were shot down by the US forces now occupying Taiwan.

 

3 April 2021

 

China and the US declared war on each other as China launched an air campaign against military targets being used by the US in Taiwan. The US Air Force bombed targets in south-east China, but was largely indiscriminate and 90% of those killed were civilians. Poland occupied Kaliningrad without resistance.

 

11 April 2021

 

The Palestinian people, under the PFLP and Hamas, launched the Third Intifada against Israeli occupation.

 

13 April 2021

 

Israel declared war on Iran after accusing it of instigating the Third Intifada.

 

18 April 2021

 

Russia completed its invasion of Estonia after the last remaining NATO troops were defeated on Saaremaa island in the far west of the country. Saudi Arabia declared war on Iran.

 

20 April – 9 May 2021

 

Russian invasion of Latvia.

 

4 May 2021

 

Saudi Arabia began to launch airstrikes on Iran.

 

13 May – 4 June 2021

 

Russian invasion of Lithuania.

 

13 – 15 May 2021

 

Turkish invasion of Georgia. The offensive failed after two days despite being supported by the Georgian government. Russian forces successfully thwarted the Turkish attempt to occupy Georgia.

 

7 June 2021

 

Russia recaptured Kaliningrad.

 

14 June – 26 November 2021

 

Iranian invasion of Saudi Arabia.

 

12 June – 20 July 2021

 

Russian invasion of Western Ukraine.

 

27 June 2021

 

China occupied Taiwan after defeating US forces.

 

30 June 2021

 

India joined the war on the side of the US/NATO.

 

6 July 2021

 

Pakistan joined the war on the side of China, Russia, and Iran.

 

15 July 2021

 

Moldova pre-emptively surrendered to Russia.

 

23 July – 7 September 2021

 

NATO launched a counter-offensive operation across the entire eastern European front which ended in failure.

 

24 August 2021 – 15 March 2022

 

Second Korean War. Korea was reunited after China and North Korea defeated the US occupation of the south.

 

8 September 2021

 

Chinese occupation of Burma.

 

10 September 2021 - 8 January 2023

 

Russian invasion of Poland.

 

16 September – 25 December 2021

 

Russian invasion of Romania.

 

6 October 2021 – 10 May 2022

 

Chinese invasion of the Philippines.

 

14 October 2021 – 7 February 2022

 

Chinese invasion of Vietnam.

 

23 December 2021

 

Bulgaria quit the war.

 

18 January – 10 April 2022

 

Russian invasion of Hungary.

 

26 January 2022

 

Slovenia quit the war.

 

8 February 2022

 

Croatia quit the war.

 

15 April – 14 May 2022

 

Russian invasion of Slovakia.

 

28 May – 16 October 2022

 

Russian invasion of the Czech Republic.

 

19 June 2022 – 23 April 2023

 

Chinese invasion of Japan.

 

11 August 2022 - 3 June 2023

 

The Indian Revolution overthrew the Hindu nationalist government and brought the Communist Party of India to power.

 

31 July - 23 September 2022

 

Iranian invasion of Israel. 

 

11 – 16 September 2022

 

The Communist Party of Nepal staged a popular coup.

 

3 October 2022 – 30 March 2023

 

Russian invasion of Norway.

 

4 November 2022 – 21 April 2023

 

Russian invasion of Austria.

 

17 February – 1 July 2023

 

Russian invasion of Germany.

 

4 April 2023

 

Italy quit the war.

 

5 - 26 April 2023

 

Russian invasion of Denmark.

 

20 April 2023

 

Spain quit the war.

 

22 April 2023

 

Portugal quit the war.

 

8 – 19 July 2023

 

Russian invasion of the Netherlands.

 

21 July 2023

 

Russia occupied Luxembourg.

 

24 July – 2 August 2023

 

Russian invasion of Belgium.

 

6 August – 25 September 2023

 

Russian invasion of France.

 

18 October 2023 – 5 December 2024

 

Russian invasion of Britain.

 

1 November 2023

 

Iceland quit the war.

 

22 December 2023 - 25 January 2024

 

Bangladeshi Revolution, backed by India.

 

27 February – 12 September 2024

 

Chinese invasion of Australia.

 

13 – 29 March 2024

 

Russian invasion of Ireland.

 

20 March – 17 April 2024

 

Chinese invasion of New Zealand.

 

15 December 2024

 

Turkey quit the war and ended its occupation of Armenia.

 

14 February – 18 April 2025

 

Russian-Chinese joint invasion of Canada.

 

1 May 2025

 

Russia and China launched a joint invasion of the USA.

 

21 October 2026

 

The Greek Civil War ended after the Communist forces emerged victorious.

 

3 - 14 April 2028

 

China and Russia drew up plans at the Kunming Conference for the division of the USA into four separate countries after its defeat, as well as for Alaska to be ceded to Russia, for Hawaii and Puerto Rico to be given independence, and preliminary plans for the creation of post-war global financial institutions to be dominated by China, and more detailed proposals for developing the post-war European governments. So far, most of Europe was either governed by temporary Russian-sanctioned provisional governments or was still under Russian military occupation. The only fully-functional parliamentary governments in Europe belonged to the countries which had either never entered the war (Finland, Sweden, Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, San Marino, Andorra, Malta), supported Russia (Serbia), or quit the war before they could be invaded (Moldova, Bulgaria, Turkey, Croatia, Slovenia, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Iceland, Cyprus). The communist Greek government had largely consolidated its power, although there was still work to be done.

 

1 January 2029

 

The British Provisional Government began operations alongside the Russian military authorities. Britain was now a bourgeois republic after the monarchy fled to Canada when Russian forces broke the siege of London.

 

11 – 15 June 2029

 

The Irkutsk Conference was held in which Russia and China finalised occupation plans for the USA after the end of the war which was only another two months away. A five-year direct military occupation period was agreed upon until the end of 2034. Also agreed was primarily Chinese dominance over the Pacific States zone, primarily Russian dominance over the Atlantic States zone, and a more equal sharing of dominance (although slightly tipped to favour the stronger Chinese) over the Gulf States zone and the Midwest States zone. In the new governments of the new American states, the Atlantic States would hold elections every four years on the first Thursday of November, as per tradition. The Pacific States would hold theirs on the first Thursday of May. The Federal Republic (or ‘Midwestern States’) would hold theirs on the first Thursday of August. The Gulf States would hold theirs on the first Thursday of February.

 

17 August 2029

 

The Third World War ended after Russia and China defeated the last remaining US forces in Houston, Texas.

 

4 – 22 March 2030

 

The Belgrade Conference was held in which Russia and China agreed on war reparations to be paid by the defeated European belligerent powers to Russia, as well as American and Canadian reparations to both Russia and China, reparations from anti-Beijing Asia-Pacific belligerents to China, and reparations from Israel and Saudi Arabia to Iran.

[Erowind]

I feel like I have a perspective not expressed entirely yet here to add. I'll see if I can get a story going myself  

I haven't read all of yours yet Joe, with tho.

Outlook's story is startlingly plausible. I wonder what the domestic climate would look like in the U.S though. Threat of draft and use of nuclear weaponry might bring the U.S government to its knees at threat of revolt in many forms. Millions refusing to pay their taxes, unending riots and mass marches, targeting of infrastructure by "extremist" veterans of the conflict brewing since 2016. All this and more I can see in that world. 

[Cloned]

Propagation of war and hatred. Why is this allowed?

[PhoenixRu]

=== no, nothing === 

[eacao]

Propagation of war and hatred. Why is this allowed?

Oh stop it

[Yuli Ban]

Propagation of war and hatred. Why is this allowed?

Because war is life, war is masculine, and war is the only acceptable state of affairs

[eacao]

It's mid-2022:

- China dams rivers flowing into Vietnam.

- Vietnam, threatened by the prospect of the shutdown of water to rice-fields or low-key poisoning of drinking water, allows the U.S. to base carriers at Cam Ranh bay again.

- China sails a Carrier Strike Group (lead by the type 002 carrier) to the Paracel Islands as a show of force. Tensions in the South China Sea rocket.

- The U.S., keen to show allies its resolve, sails a carrier strike group to Vietnam. It's joined by Japanese and Aussie ships.

- Chinese-backed gov in Sudan has oil fields attacked by U.S.-backed 'rebels' from South Sudan.

- China, bitter, has little recourse against American statecraft in North-East Africa. Looks to regain pride in the South China Sea. Tensions rocket further.

 

It's late 2023:

- Japan, having culled much trade with China over the China Virus (but looking to take the lead in the volatile region while the U.S. deals with internal strife), pens a deal to sell retired warships to Taiwan and Vietnam.

- China's Global Times newspaper reports that Japan is "playing with fire". It says that such blatant provocation will result in "irreversible and painful retaliations from the Chinese people". 

- President Trump, giving a televised response, said, "Shinzo Abe called me today. "He said 'Mr. President, you have such a beautiful navy. Why don't you send your navy into the South China Sea?'. I said: Shinzo, you're right, I do have such a big navy. How about I give you my girthy ships".

- The People's Armed Maritime Militia Force (PLAMMF) begins ramming Vietnamese and Indonesian fishing boats off the Paracel and Spratley islands. Philippino fishing boats, curiously, are not molested. There is one alleged incident where a PLAMMF vessel shot rifle rounds off the bow of a Vietnamese boat. Right wing shitheads Fox News reports the incident foolhardily. MSNBC and other lefty propaganda fuckwits news outlets disseminate similar stories.

 

It's now 2024:

- Lord Musk has retrieved the astronauts, who have been living in a StarShip for the past 6 months, from Low Earth Orbit. 

- Mr. Bezos has called his Cis-Lunar hydrolox tug-train the "biggest tugger since Titanic".

- The First woman and the next man (who is contemplating womanhood) have touched down on the Lunar surface.

- The Taiwanese public is calling for their government to acknowledge independence in the face of alleged Hong Kong "disappearances". 

- China practices their largest joint amphibious / airbourne assault exercises in their history. It involves more than 100,000 troops and $100b worth of military assets. 

- Chinese submarines make multiple appearances inside of the defensive spheres of Japanese, American, and Vietnamese Anti-Submarine-Warefare screens. The U.S. Secretary of Defence issues the statement, "Our surface fleets are well-protected against any potential threats. Our brave men and women have trained for all contingencies". BuzzFeed News publishes a damning story describing the SecDef's acknowledgement of servicemen before servicewomen as sexist and potentially racist. The Guardian quickly follows with a similar story. Readers are happy to hear this grievance acknowledged, but are nevertheless mildly concerned about war. 

- The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) offers a surprise announcement to the world: "We have conducted joint exercises with the Royal Thai Navy and have forward based China's submarines in Thailand to protect China's sovereign territory from wanton and hostile incursion by any foreign power". Breitbart reports, "China to go to war over wontons".

 

Now, it's 2025. Oh boy:

- At first everything was going well, but everything changed when the United States' Navy attacked. Unambiguously outspent by the pressured Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in foreign affairs and dealing with a hot and heavy South China Sea situation, the U.S. is left no choice but to continue its (ever more irrelevant) Freedom Of Navigation Operations (FONOPS). Things seem swell until a 15,000-tonne Chinese Coast Guard "Cutter" (cutter? seriously?) attempts to block the passage of an American aircraft carrier, crashes into it, and temporarily renders it inoperable. 

- The U.S. (that now operates 9 carriers vs. the 11 in 2020) has only 1 carrier in the Pacific. The U.S. deploys an extra FFG(X) and Burke to Cam Ranh Bay in an (hopeless) attempt to compensate for its lost deterrence power. Australia, brave as she can be, sends the mighty ANZAC class frigate into the theatre. It is quickly shadowed by a Chinese submarine and has to sail south of Borneo. Little do the Chinese know, however, but Australian Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) lurk in the South China Sea. They are, nevertheless, toothless, due to underperforming AI. 

- The United States, The European Union, Canada, New Zealand, and the great land of Australia, who have spent 5 years disentangling their economies from China, and lead by Japanese / American politicians, announce the Two China policy, which acknowledges Taiwan as an independent nation and grants full membership to the United Nations Security Council as a non-permanent member.

- The Chinese president, still grappling with an internal ruckus, caused by foreign governments pulling their supply chains out of China, has few options. Either she (or 'he'.. 'they' go by the pronoun 'zi') attempts an assassination of the nationalistic Taiwanese president. It's hopelessly botched and a mainland spy ring is publicly uncovered within the Legislative Yuan (Taiwanese Parliament / Congress). 

- China, fully comprehending the dire nature of the situation, executes a coup within North Korea. Gim Yeojong (aka, Kim Yo Jong) 'accepts' PLA forces into her territory, that speedily amass along the southern border. Simultaneously, the 50% of South Korean population (mostly zoomers) that prefers China as a regional superpower to the U.S.-Japanese dyad begin posting emotionally-charged pro-China comments on international social media. They also snap photos with face-held AR glasses of the streets, and tag "#ChinaComeQuick". Tens-of-thousands of photos of South Korea's city streets flood the internet. When asked why they favour China, one South Korean netizen answers, "The Japanese sent millions of our women into prostitution. They are our enemy, not China".

- China loosens restrictions on chemical waste going into shared water streams. In fact, so annoyed by Cam Ranh Bay, and with negotiations going nowhere, it dumps a tonne of industrial chemical waste into rivers shared with Vietnam. Hundreds of people become sick in following weeks.

 

Later 2025 or perhaps 2026:

- Vietnam threatens the CCP over the "Mekong Deadly" (in dubious English) and asserts that if the dams aren't opened to international oversight, it will simply blow them up. Now, you need to understand that at this point, Vietnam (with a single-party structure and the mindsets it entails) is confident that it has the backing of the U.S. and Japan. Both powers are quick to proclaim that they want nothing to do with this conundrum, but the Vietnamese government believes the U.S.' strategic investment in Cam Ranh Bay, and the Japanese investment in geography, dictates a sure backing. They're kind of right.

- The CCP, annoyed by the stubborn Socialist Republic of Vietnam, 

 

 

... to be continued 

[PhoenixRu]

^ ^ ^

This inspired me to write my own WW3 scenario but...

 

... to be continued 

 

Yes, please, continue. I should not interrupt your story.

[eacao]

Cheers man, I'd also be keen to hear one from your perspective

 

Late 2025:

- The CCP, annoyed by the stubborn Socialist Republic of Vietnam, begins recalling Chinese nationals staying in Vietnam. Chinese tourism to Vietnam grinds to a halt, costing its economy billions. Infrastructure projects end.

- South Korea's president is under immense pressure at home. The United States has fielded the first of its B-21 bombers and is planning a deployment to South Korea and Japan. Supreme Ruler, Kim Yo Jong, is demanding Seoul bans all American nuclear-capable aircraft from operating in South Korean airfields. The list of aircraft in this category includes the B-52, the B-21, and most importantly, the F-35--the backbone of the American air force. Kim Yo Jong promises retaliation on Seoul if the American nuclear presence is allowed to remain. It's clear Beijing is feeding her the script. The CCP publicly commits to North Korea's defence if it comes under attack. "The British will fight to the last Frenchman. America will fight to the last Briton". Here, China will fight to the last Korean.

- Protesters in the streets of Seoul--most of them simply fearing a war, some more ideological others protesting because they're pro-Beijing, call for the South Korean president to acquiesce the demands. A small and vocal minority of the population insists the U.S. presence should be bolstered.

- With the threat of hostilities mounting and the possibility of a refugee exodus on the table, Russia repositions two combat brigades and fighter squadrons to Vladivostok. This includes the largest movement of T-50 fighters to date. An army division will be joining this initial force in the coming weeks, after a logistics train can be ramped up.

- A fourth PLAN carrier is launched after months of accelerated construction. It is christened the "Nanjing". It is conventionally powered but is equipped with three CATOBAR launchers. China has also switched to building the upgraded type 055A destroyers with improved radars. They are fitted with S-band radars to provide early warning against some stealth aircraft. At least one is always deployed in the Bohai Sea between Beijing and Korea.

 

Early 2026:

- The United States has surged a third carrier to the West Pacific region. These account for three out of four carriers currently underway. Bloomberg publishes an article, citing White House insiders, claiming the U.S. president has spent "every other hour in the Situation Room" for the past two weeks.

- Civil strife in Myanmar prompts the State Counsellor to invite CCP paramilitary police forces into the country as advisors. Fearing the potential loss of its deep water port in the Bay of Bengal, which would leave the PLA reliant on the unsecured Malacca Strait for access to its strategically vital energy supply in the Middle East / North Africa, the CCP takes action. China supplies the Myanmar government with law & order enforcement equipment and paramilitary advisors. It is rumoured that the United States is fanning the flames and organising civil protests to keep the Myanmar government off balance. Mainstream U.S. media never mentions these rumours, despite their widespread circulation in online forums. 

 

Early-Mid 2026:

- Vietnam's economy is suffering under China's economic constriction. The Vietnamese government, eager to integrate more closely with the U.S. consumer market, has been given a difficult ultimatum: reopen Cam Ranh Bay to U.S. ships, or trade agreements will continue to stall. Japan has been more agreeable. Trade between Vietnam and Japan had doubled in the years between 2021-26. The United States is mildly annoyed with Japan acting as a pressure relief valve, but has bigger fish to fry. Taipei has now publicly invited foreign militaries to dock in Taiwan. The Taiwanese public has taken to the streets with banners and chants calling for the United States to " .

- The CCP 

- America & CCP agree to both back off a little from Korea. 

- US bold

- Sneaky airbourne assault korea

- Shipyards

- Modules fast building

- Laos & Cambodia

- Kashmir

- Iran

- Djibouti

- Philippines

- Ocean fluid. Give & take. More U.S. focuses on Asia, more rest of world is multipolar. Can't give all. 

- Kyrgy pipeline... Later uzbek, Tajik...

- Japan no bombers. China bombers. Ports gone. Emergency shipbuilding. Need hulls, need missiles, cyberwar not end game as some thought. Too compartmentalised.

- Afghan... Thar desert. Pakistan. Tanks. Russian tanks, Chinese tanks. Type 99a. T-90. No more fanboys. Only fear. Conscription?

- France Africa. South Africa rich. 

- Egypt on fire. Iraq forgotten.

- Cheap space launch. Kinetic weapons--alternative to nukes, hypersonics. Nowhere is safe. Bunkers redundant. Reconnaissance name of the game. Camouflage underearth. Small TBMs are the standard.

- LEO battleground. Lasers--blinding. Moon important. Reconnaissance. Insitu aluminium observatory. Lots of cash for force multipliers.

- East Africa

- North Africa

- Complex dynamic--Poland, Germany, Estonia.. Moscow, Belarus. Delicate peace. Much skepticism.

- On wartime production: "in the first year, nothing. In the second year, a trickle. In the third, a stream. In the fourth, a torrent".

- five years

- Nowhere safe. Cities no longer 'untouchable'. No more games. Everyone under threat. Anyone, anywhere. Whole globe is one target.

- burning cities. Chemical vapour clouds that cling to the ground. Coughing up chunks.

- Sea life necrosed from the bottom of the chain up.

- Food security.

- Korea again

- Nukes.

- Astronauts on the moon watch flashes on the nightward side of Earth. 

- 5 years of black clouds over the earth. no plant life. no large animals. 

- Northern hemisphere is black. Can't see through the black clouds. Southern hemisphere barely visible. No food, no people. Cold. 

 

.. soz, again will need to be continued. Feel free to post as you wish tho @PhoenixRu

[Set and Meet Goals]

Chinese and US capitalists use there government to fight over over other countries labour and resources they want to exploit. Tensions rise as the Chinese state get closer to the US state in power. In 2020 a virus is used as a opportunity to demonise China in preparation for war.

[Revolutionary Moderate]

Conflicts between China and the US grow until they cause full-scale war between China and the US. 

 

A few years later: After WW3 went nuclear, enough nuclear weapons were used to destroy all life on Earth multiple times over. The very few people who survived the nuclear exchange were killed after a nuclear winter occurred, which almost killed all life on Earth, with life only surviving in the deepest of caves, bacteria that live deep underground, and close to hydrothermal vents in the sea floor.