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Poll who will win the 2020 US presidential election


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24 replies to this topic

Poll: Poll who will win the 2020 US presidential election (17 member(s) have cast votes)

Trump

  1. Biden (10 votes [58.82%])

    Percentage of vote: 58.82%

  2. Trump (5 votes [29.41%])

    Percentage of vote: 29.41%

  3. Other candidate/election won't happen (2 votes [11.76%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.76%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1
10 year march

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I have to write something here

#2
10 year march

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The poll isn't functioning correctly and won't show Trump


Edit: fixed it

#3
wjfox

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That's assuming the U.S. even has an election this year.

 

Perhaps there'll be a convenient "emergency" – hmm, can't think what that could possibly be.



#4
Outlook

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There's a great video by legal eagle about what would happen if there aren't any elections this year. Chances are a democrat is next in the line of succession for the presidency, as the president is forced to end his term.


Outlook's secret song of the ~week: https://youtu.be/Gnyr3sbdKkU

#5
PhoenixRu

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Trump. I just can not imagine Biden as serious rival.

 

That's assuming the U.S. even has an election this year.

 

Perhaps there'll be a convenient "emergency" – hmm, can't think what that could possibly be.

 

This is unlikely. Situation with coronavirus is more or less stable (no more exponential growth), and all the other reasons to postpone elections will be met with fury and resist.

 

Perhaps there will be voting by mail. And since it will work in favor of Democrats, "Economist" is actively promoting the idea. In Poland, on contrary, it will work in favor of current nationalist regime, therefore "Economist" is actively opposing the idea as "dangerous" and "threat to democracy". Both articles are in the same issue... but I'm not surprised, I've seen too much in life.



#6
Erowind

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/\ Jesus than could not be more blatant could they? The manufactured consent is so visible. I'll post a pic when I'm not on my phone if I remember but Pheonix is right. Just google "economist poland vote by mail" on the US Google search. Two articles are the top results both by the economist exactly as Pheonix described.

#7
wjfox

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Situation with coronavirus is more or less stable (no more exponential growth)

 

 

Unless there's a second wave, possibly even bigger (as happened in 1918).

 

 

ifdAhYb.jpg



#8
Outlook

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I voted for Biden. I don't think there's any way Trump could win after COVID-19. Biden is white, male, and has strong rhetoric despite the hairy legs.
Outlook's secret song of the ~week: https://youtu.be/Gnyr3sbdKkU

#9
wjfox

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I don't think there's any way Trump could win after COVID-19. Biden is white, male, and has strong rhetoric despite the hairy legs.

 

But Trump is loved and worshipped by Americans.

 

He is constantly "owning the libs", taking on the "fake news" media, bullying minorities, and insulting allies around the world. He's done everything he can to undermine science, and to roll back "burdensome regulations" that threaten corporate profits (the fabled "job creators").

 

Like one of the Chaos Gods from Warhammer 40K, Trump is the physical manifestation of American arrogance, hatred, and greed. He's the perfect GOP candidate.



#10
caltrek

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I voted for Biden, but I would not be surprised if "emergency" measures and/or other shenanigans are used that result in a Trump victory.  If the election is not outright canceled, Biden will need to win by a wide margin just to overcome games being played on the fringes as happened in the 2000 and possibly even in the 2004 election.  It sucks that this is the reality we are in.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#11
caltrek

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That's assuming the U.S. even has an election this year.

 

Perhaps there'll be a convenient "emergency" – hmm, can't think what that could possibly be.

 

Just by coincidence, I came upon the article below within hours of reading W J Fox's post:

 

Can Trump cancel the November election?

No.

 

https://www.vox.com/...ion-coronavirus

 

Introduction:

 

(Vox) In an interview with Time magazine published on Tuesday, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner made an odd claim. When asked if the November election could be postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic, Kushner said it would not be his decision, adding that “I’m not sure I can commit one way or the other, but right now” holding the election on schedule is “the plan.”

 

Kushner is hardly a reliable narrator, but it’s not like this concern arises in a vacuum. Not long after many Americans started social distancing in an effort to slow the spread of coronavirus, Ohio’s director of health, Dr. Amy Acton, delayed that state’s primary election, which was originally scheduled for March 17. She did so with the blessing of Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and the state Supreme Court.

 

As a matter of law, the decision to delay was defensible, and there is no evidence that Acton or DeWine acted in bad faith — their efforts to postpone voting appear to be motivated by a genuine desire to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

 

But this delay of a state primary election, among others, understandably triggered fears that other officials, potentially even Trump, might take advantage of the Ohio precedent to postpone or cancel November’s election if it appears that Trump is likely to be defeated.

 

The good news is that’s not allowed — or, at least, it’s not allowed unless Congress allows it to happen. A trio of federal laws set Election Day for presidential electorssenators, and US representatives as “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November.” If Republicans want to change this law, they will need to go through the Democratic House.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#12
Zaphod

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Biden is more probable at this point, but I wouldn't bet any money on it or be too surprised if Trump wins again.



#13
Cody930

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Before corona, definitely Trump. With corona, leaning Biden, especially if the economy is still bottomed out by fall. But wouldn't be shocked if Trump eked out a marginal win again.


"Since we first emerged, a few million years ago in East Africa, we have meandered our way around the planet. There are now people on every continent and the remotest islands, from pole to pole, from Mount Everest to the Dead Sea, on the ocean bottoms and even, occasionally, in residence 200 miles up - humans, like the gods of old, living in the sky."


#14
joe00uk

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I think Biden has a decent chance of winning. 

 

Most states are either safely Republican or safely Democrat, so it's pretty much set in stone already which candidate their electoral colleges will give their votes to. There are only a handful of "swing states" where voting matters because they become the kingmakers in the election. In these states, neither party has the kind of security they do in more predictable states. In 2016, these states were Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin. The electoral colleges from those states were key to Trump winning the presidency. 

 

In Florida in 2016, Trump won Florida's 29 electoral college votes by securing a majority of 112,911 votes over Clinton. Trump won Wisconsin's 10 electoral college votes by a margin of 22,748 votes. He won Michigan's 16 electoral college votes by a razor thin margin of 10,704 votes.

 

If Trump had lost both Florida and Michigan, even if he kept Wisconsin, Clinton would have won the national election because of how many electoral college votes you need to win and how many each state has to give. The winning threshold is 270 electoral college votes. Trump won 304 in 2016 and Clinton won 227. So say this November that Trump wins all the states he won in 2016 aside from the swing states, and out of those swing states, he loses Florida and Michigan this year. Biden also wins all the states that Clinton won. The combined 45 electoral votes of those states would be subtracted from Trump's 304 and added to Biden's 227. Trump would be left with 259 electoral votes and Biden would win with 272 electoral votes. 

 

So it looks like Florida is key. If Trump loses Florida this year, assuming everything else stays the same from 2016, he would have to keep both Michigan and Wisconsin in order to still win, and those states he won in 2016 by much thinner margins. 

 

Now this is where demographics come in. Different racial groups in America have different voting patterns. A slim majority of white Americans vote Republican (within whites this depends on age), but the majority of most other races vote Democrat. Now, with the white American vote depending on age, it's important to remember that a lot of older white Americans (and older Americans in general) have died between 2016 and now, and with the current pandemic, a lot more will die by November than could previously have been expected. 

 

Between 2016 and the beginning of 2020, about 800,000 people died in Florida - mostly older people, as is to be expected. 52% of older people (over 65s) voted for Trump in Florida and 45% voted for Clinton. This is of course very simplistic, but we can estimate that about 416,000 Republican voters died during that time and 360,000 Democrat voters died. The net effect of this is that Trump has probably lost about 56,000 Republican voters (not taking the current pandemic into account). Trump's majority of 112,911 votes in 2016 would be slashed to 56,911 votes this year. Applying the same circumstances to Michigan, Trump would actually lose the state by 17,296 votes. Trump's majority in Wisconsin would be just 8,748. This is just looking at non-coronavirus deaths over the past four years and no other demographic data like immigration or teenagers coming of age to vote.

 

So all else being the same, Trump could still win Florida and Wisconsin. Biden would have to count on a way to make up those 56,911 votes in Florida and those 8,748 votes in Wisconsin. Now it's time to take a look at these new voters, who were too young to vote in 2016. Many more of these young voters are either immigrants or come from an ethnic minority background. Across most of the US, demographics are shifting such that white Americans are becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of the population and the percentage of ethnic minorities is growing and growing. By the 2040s, the US will be majority non-white. Some states like California are already majority non-white and this process is accelerating in other states, including the key swing states. And as I said before, ethnic minorities in the US tend to vote Democrat. The same is true of new immigrants.

 

Immigration to the US has increased under the Trump presidency. In Florida, the most important swing state at the moment, the immigrant population grew by 16% - above average for the US. In Michigan and Wisconsin, it grew by 13%. With the three factors of older Republican voters dying, new teenagers coming of age to vote who are proportionally more non-white and vote Democrat, and new immigrants who also tend to vote Democrat, is should be very easy for Biden to make up Trump's 112,911-vote majority in Florida, the most important state to win. 

 

Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton are similar in that neither candidate can or could whip up much popular enthusiasm among their supporters. One of Trump's key advantages over Clinton was that he could whip up enthusiasm. In 2020, he is much less able to do this not just because of social distancing restrictions on Trump's rallies which also serve to protect Biden from public gaffes, but Trump also failed to deliver on many of his promises in 2016 and his mishandling of the current pandemic will only worsen. Trump did not build the wall, he did not restrict immigration, he did not bring back American industry, he did not end foreign interventions and he spent time obsessing over Israel rather than putting America first, as his supporters hoped he would do. He took no action over healthcare or student loans. Social media censorship has also increased between 2016 and today, so many of those who campaigned for and promoted Trump online no longer have mainstream platforms on the internet which can reach tens of millions of voters. Social media was named as another factor that won Trump the presidency, but now in 2020, he can't rely on this as much as he could in 2016. The "alt right 4chan" crowd has denounced him and radicalised beyond him. Added to all this, of course we have the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic chaos which will only destroy Trump's credibility no matter who is running against him.

 

Looking at all the information that's available, it's hard to see Trump enjoying the same advantages he had in 2016. The position of the Democrats has strengthened over the past four years and as senile and ridiculous as Biden is, the conditions are ripe for him to take advantage of - or rather, those who are managing him behind the scenes. 



#15
Outlook

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That analysis is as Machiavellian as it gets joe. Good stuff.
Outlook's secret song of the ~week: https://youtu.be/Gnyr3sbdKkU

#16
joe00uk

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That analysis is as Machiavellian as it gets joe. Good stuff.

Why, thank you.



#17
PhoenixRu

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The position of the Democrats has strengthened over the past four years and as senile and ridiculous as Biden is, the conditions are ripe for him to take advantage of - or rather, those who are managing him behind the scenes. 

 

That's the great mystery to me: why US "deep state" opposing Trump could not find anyone better than Biden? If the whole task was to find the figurehead, why not find someone younger and with Hollywood smile. Someone like Juan Guaido, for example:

 

Spoiler


#18
joe00uk

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That's the great mystery to me: why US "deep state" opposing Trump could not find anyone better than Biden? If the whole task was to find the figurehead, why not find someone younger and with Hollywood smile. Someone like Juan Guaido, for example:

I'd imagine the personal element to it might be the explanation. The "deep state" can seem like a faceless, nebulous force from above with everything and everyone below it tied to its strings. Inevitably, however, it is made up of individuals with their own private interests and their own personal power struggles - their own rivalries. Biden is where he is because there are other people who want him there, for their own benefit. I would be very surprised if Hillary Clinton had nothing to do with this. I don't think she ever got over her defeat in 2016 and Biden is a way for her and her allies to have the influence over the presidency that she was denied four years ago. Even if she isn't involved, and this has nothing to do with her, Biden is still being used as a vessel. Whatever power struggle within the Democratic Party took place, those who won it clearly wanted Biden to be their nominee. Their strategy, therefore, must have been one in which they would use this ageing and increasingly senile man as a way to push through their own agenda from behind the scenes. Biden's health is deteriorating and he will likely die or be incapacitated in office. He won't be his own actor - he'll simply be manipulated and used by those around him. Whoever is appointed to be Biden's Vice President is who will hold the real power in the Washington regime (unless the Vice President herself is beholden to others). For whatever reason, those who are behind Biden didn't want one of their own to win office openly or publicly themselves. This is why I'm thinking Hillary might be involved - if she ran for President again, there would be uproar, but I can't imagine the same reaction to anyone else. The same applies for the appointment of Vice President - I think Hillary is an unlikely choice because again, that would be too open. Biden did say, however, that he would pick a woman.



#19
caltrek

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Well, I don't think Biden is as senile and in as poor a health condition as Joe00uk seems to believe.  Other than that, his analysis is excellent.  

 

Even on the health issue, if Biden wins, I can easily envision him deciding not to run for re-election in 2024.  Democrats will  managed to kick the can down the road.  Hopefully, Trump will decide not to run in 2024, if he is even still alive by then, given his own advanced age.  That will mean another pivotal election.  One in which both parties have a number of candidates step forward who will try to secure their party's nomination.  That will really be interesting to watch.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#20
caltrek

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The position of the Democrats has strengthened over the past four years and as senile and ridiculous as Biden is, the conditions are ripe for him to take advantage of - or rather, those who are managing him behind the scenes. 

 

That's the great mystery to me: why US "deep state" opposing Trump could not find anyone better than Biden? If the whole task was to find the figurehead, why not find someone younger and with Hollywood smile. Someone like Juan Guaido, for example:

 

 

My argument is that the one thing that unites those in the so-called "deep state' that are otherwise opposed to Trump is their dedication to protecting the U.S. Constitution.  Unfortunately, there is nothing in the U.S. Constitution that flat out prohibits the U.S. from acting like a capitalist neo-colonial power.  So, I can understand why that argument is of little comfort to those living outside the U.S.    


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls





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