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When will these tech be on the market?


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#1
Jessica

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When will they be available for sale?

1. First flying car you can drive down the street and take off be on the market?. Not just for developers but for the people that have a few hundred thousand bucks laying around. This has been promised for at least the past decade by certain companies but when will one deliver on their promise?

 

2.A couple of questions about driverless cars. When will level 4 driverless cars be available? and when will driverless cars be common on our streets?

 

3. Delivery drones? Amazon keeps promising but as of yet hasn't started drone delivery. It would be nice to have something delivered the same day within 50 miles of you by a drone instead of waiting another 24 hours for the mail to come. When will this be common place and when do you think it'll start?

 

4. When will AR take more then 20% of the market for internet use?

 

5. Anti-aging that can slow aging down? Anti-aging that can turn back the clock. When will both be available?

 

6. Laser guns. When will they be available for consumers?

 

7. Bioprinting? When will you be able to print a new leg, arm or tranplant a new organ based on your own genetics?

 

My thinking.

1. Probably within 5 years but I would have said the same 5 years ago...So I won't hold my breath.

2. Level 4 probably by 2035, probably by 2030 for when it will be common as got to beat back the over regulation that is currently slowing it down.

3. Probably within the next 2 years I'd say.

4. Honestly, I believe this will occur by 2032. One interesting device is this It is powered by a smart phone but maybe in 10 years tech will grow so small that it can fit within some gloves that you wear that also allows you to control the interface to play on the internet. Or maybe a small smart watch can be the processor for the glasses that can track your hands like the oculus quest currently has.

 

5. For the rich I'd say probably by 2035 and reverse aging will come shortly then after based on some of the science I've read on this board. I say 2035 because of regulations and the fact that it takes a long time to approve such.

 

6. The military is developing some interesting lasers but they're huge. This is something that will probably be available in the 22nd century for the consumer. I'd guess they will be more like shotguns when they come out instead of hand guns  and have a battery pack on your back like a backpack weighing probably 10-20 pounds when they come onto market. These backpacks will be able to be recharged by electricy within the air kind of like smart phones can be charged without plugging them in but possibly within a few hundred feet of a charging unit.

http://www.technovel...haser-rifle.jpg

 

 

7. Probably by 2040 for organs but 2030 for legs and arms.



#2
Revolutionary Moderate

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I don't think flying cars will ever be available for sale because there is no appeal to do so, unlike self driving cars. There is also some questions about flying cars, such as would you need a pilot license in order to fly a flying car and where would flying cars take off and where would they land. The temperature would also be a problem because it gets colder the higher you are, so flying cars would need to some sort of insulation. It also gets quite windy the higher you go, which would make it feel even colder.


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#3
starspawn0

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1. First flying car you can drive down the street and take off be on the market?. Not just for developers but for the people that have a few hundred thousand bucks laying around. This has been promised for at least the past decade by certain companies but when will one deliver on their promise?



2.A couple of questions about driverless cars. When will level 4 driverless cars be available? and when will driverless cars be common on our streets?



3. Delivery drones? Amazon keeps promising but as of yet hasn't started drone delivery. It would be nice to have something delivered the same day within 50 miles of you by a drone instead of waiting another 24 hours for the mail to come. When will this be common place and when do you think it'll start?



4. When will AR take more then 20% of the market for internet use?



5. Anti-aging that can slow aging down? Anti-aging that can turn back the clock. When will both be available?



6. Laser guns. When will they be available for consumers?



7. Bioprinting? When will you be able to print a new leg, arm or tranplant a new organ based on your own genetics?


A lot of these are standard futurist tropes. Unfortunately, we don't often get what we want; but we do get something surprising. Smartphones, for example, were a surprise to many.

Flying cars: they won't look like "cars"; but will more closely resemble airplanes. Where would one fly them? In cities maybe on heliports; but not on crowded streets.

I'd say a very, very small number of flying cars will show up as a rare oddity in certain random locales by 2025; but they won't become as common as a Tesla probably at least 15 years from now, if ever. Probably they never will.

Level 4 cars will exist by about 2024; and less than 10% of driverless cars by 2029 will be level 4. Level 2 and 2.5 Driverless cars already are everywhere in cities. Many cars nowadays have at least some driverless features, such as to warn you when you drift out of your lane on the road.

Delivery drones: the holdup is mostly about (1) Regulations, and (2) How to scale it up. It isn't as much a technology issue anymore. Concerning (2), a similar problem exists for electric cars: how do you compete with the gas station, that enables an easy and quick recharge? The problem with setting up a drone delivery network is at least as challenging as that.
So... I'd say maybe 2025... possibly longer to get these sorted out. Again, the technology won't be the barrier.

AR: early AR, in the next 2 to 3 years, will mostly be used to check texts and handle reminders and small things like that; basically all the things Google Glass was supposed to do. Browsing the internet will be a little cumbersome and the display quality will be low; and there's a huge advantage in UI design that smartphones have, to overcome. So, I think maybe in 4 to 5 years they will get a little broader use. By about 2029, people will use them in large numbers. But I'm not sure if they will replace smartphones quite so soon. Wearing glasses either looks geeky, or suggests you don't have good natural vision; I'm not sure people who want to show off their looks will go for them. But 20% of internet use? Hmm... possible by 2029. Not sure.

Anti-aging: kind of tricky. If some of the recent announcements pan out, then we could see it within 5 years, maybe sooner. So, let me assign a 50% probability mass for "within 5 years". If that doesn't pan out, then it's either going to require genetic manipulation, or SENS, or 3D-printed organ replacement; those are basically the three strongest contenders. Genetic manipulation has a long road to development, as there are going to be lots of regulatory requirements to be met; and even some false-starts along the way. I'd say "at least years" for that; the same with SENS and organ replacement. So, there's a 50% chance we'll see massive progress and availability within 5 years; and then about a 50% chance for the time interval of about 15 years to 30 years.

Laser guns: they require a lot of energy, and have "escalatory" implications. I could see them being mounted to special trucks to knock down enemy planes; but they won't be deployed to soldiers in large numbers anytime soon. Bullets are a pretty effective, low-tech weapon, that are hard to beat.

Bioprinting: something as complicated as a leg is going to be at least 15 years away, and probably 20+ years away. It's too far off to think about right now.

On the other hand, the BCI revolution is going to see massive progress this decade. It already has. Most people just aren't aware of it, including government forecasting agencies.



#4
Yuli Ban

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Flying cars are only going to happen if antigravity or some analog (e.g. acoustic levitation, superconductive/monopolar magnetic propulsion, etc.) is invented and miniaturized.  But since antigravity is physically impossible and its analogs require fantastic improvements that aren't likely, the best we'll get is passenger drone taxi services.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#5
funkervogt

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There are many technological, legal, safety-related, and practical barriers to flying cars. It's doubtful they will be widespread, or even somewhat common, until the end of this century, if ever. 

 

https://www.militant...bly-never-will/



#6
Yuli Ban

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1. First flying car you can drive down the street and take off be on the market?. Not just for developers but for the people that have a few hundred thousand bucks laying around. This has been promised for at least the past decade by certain companies but when will one deliver on their promise?

So about drone taxis...
I don't have Starspawn0's foresight only because I lack his technical knowledge (something I've been aware of for years), so I don't like giving year estimates.
However, I will make the attempt here: passenger drone tech will be advanced enough to allow for ride-sharing flying taxis by 2025 easily. Since there's no pilot, the lack of that externality will reduce the cost of flights to maybe 2x to 3x the price of a luxury ride with Uber. But it will almost certainly be limited to a few cities, like Dubai, Toronto, Las Vegas, Shanghai, and whatnot. Not to mention that they are still essentially just pilotless helicopters; you can't go literally anywhere but rather to predetermined take-off and landing sites. Maybe if there's a wide-open field, you could also land there. The only situation I can think of where landing on an open road would be allowed would be for ambulance drones that are coming to airlift someone in an emergency. Otherwise, they'd be too loud and cumbersome for road landings.
 

2.A couple of questions about driverless cars. When will level 4 driverless cars be available? and when will driverless cars be common on our streets?


Starspawn0's answer is probably right, unless there's either some sudden steep increase or massive decline in difficulty at a certain point when it comes to driving that would mean even level 3 could only be effectively done by something close to AGI. Even Audi canceled the A8's level 3 Traffic Jam Pilot system. Of course, the real issue there is that level 3 autonomy exists in a very bizarre grey area between just having a driver-assist feature like Autopilot and some semblance of near-full autonomy, where it's too good for the former but not good enough for the latter— humans will get too comfortable and not pay attention, and the constant shifting of should-I-shouldn't-I attention would probably be more tiring than actually driving.. As a result, we might skip level 3 autonomy entirely. This might speed up the deployment of level 4 autonomous cars since it's clear there's a market for it.
 

3. Delivery drones? Amazon keeps promising but as of yet hasn't started drone delivery. It would be nice to have something delivered the same day within 50 miles of you by a drone instead of waiting another 24 hours for the mail to come. When will this be common place and when do you think it'll start?

 
Again, see Starspawn0. 
 

4. When will AR take more then 20% of the market for internet use?


I'm of the mind that augmented reality will only truly take off when there's a more unobtrusive control method. Gesture and voice control alike are good enough nowadays (especially compared to 2013-2014), but I still doubt their practicality. As I've mentioned before, smartphones took off because you have two nodes of control: your thumb on one hand and your fingers on the other. This allows you great freedom to navigate menus and screens in a highly unobtrusive manner.
Smartwatches failed, then came back to find their niche because at first companies tried marketing them as smartphones on your wrist, ala science fiction. But science fiction often notoriously lacks understanding of human physiological needs in lieu of showing off cool technology. Think of how often sci-fi and futuristic promos would show off something but miss an aspect that's so completely obvious (like the internet existing, but you have to go to special library-like hubs IRL to access certain sites)— and then we learn in retrospect that people who knew how humans actually operate called it from the start. Smartwatches have only one real node of control: your opposite hand. This limits their utility greatly, which is further reduced by the smaller functional screen size. 
Smartglasses currently exist in this grey area because they have both nodes of control again but also lack any tactile feedback, instead relying heavily on spatial awareness. 
I'm more accepting of the idea that it can work nowadays, but it still seems like it might be too cumbersome in public. 
 
As a result, I still believe that the missing link will be cyberkinesis. Mixing cyberkinesis with some gesture control would probably be the least obtrusive method (I say because I know how people are; feeling like you can physically move something would likely increase satisfaction.)
 

5. Anti-aging that can slow aging down? Anti-aging that can turn back the clock. When will both be available?


Starspawn0, again. I might as well just quote Starspawn0 from this point onward; I myself lost interest in anti-aging years ago so I haven't been following it. If you asked me a month ago, I'd have shrugged and said "maybe we'll see some progress in 20-30 years." But apparently there's been a massive breakthrough on this front recently.
 

6. Laser guns. When will they be available for consumers?

 
Here is where I will break from Starspawn0 and say outright that these will never be available to consumers. Ever.
Fun fact: you can build your own.

Ah, but see, here's the trouble: science fiction operates along the lines of "rule of cool". Sci-fi envisions laser guns as bullets of explosive energy going "pew pew pew". That's not how lasers work, except on maybe monstrous scales of distance (i.e. firing a laser gun at, say, Mars or Ceres would create a fractured effect just because of how long it takes for light to get there). Some more modern sci-fi works take this into account, having guns that fire continuous highly-charged bursts of focused light.
 
Real lasers are extraordinarily dangerous to the point of being outrageously useless in a close-quarter tactical setting. You can't just pull a 1950s comic book cover pose and blast some mook with one. You need protection for starters, because if you have a laser gun powerful enough to immediately kill someone, then trust me— if even a single ray reflects back at you off of a surface, you're also maimed. But it gets even worse than that. If you stare at the spot where the laser hits, your unprotected eyes will likely burn out.  And again, this is light. It's not some high-viscous material that you can easily dodge if you accidentally twitch your finger 0.01 nanometers to the right onto a reflective pit in the floor. 
 
So sadly, laser guns will have to remain in science fiction and, of course, niche hobbyist circles.
 
Of course, robots might utilize them more often. And lasers are perfect for shooting down planes, missiles, and distant targets.
 

7. Bioprinting? When will you be able to print a new leg, arm or tranplant a new organ based on your own genetics?


Who knows, really! There might be a breakthrough just round the corner that allows for it. But it might just be decades more.

 

Here are some answers to questions unasked!

 

Jessica (didn't) ask: When can I buy a program that allows me to make any song or book?

 

By 2024, synthetic media will be otherworldly from where it is now. For a small example, Wjfox could probably use an image generator to redo the entire look of the site if he wanted. As another example, he might be able to use a stylistic editor (still absent, surprisingly!) to rewrite predictions in an authentically Shakespearean style. Jukebox is already almost competent, and it's just the first iteration. So by 2022 or so, we'll see a perfect song generator, for genres ranging from pop to progressive metal and everything in between. By 2024, it ought to be able to be used on your own (Cloud-connected) computer, so that's when we'll start seeing things like "The Beatles cover Eminem, ft. 2-Pac", "Radiohead in the style of Pink Floyd", "Pink Floyd in the style of Radiohead," Kurt Cobain's solo album, the epic collaborations between Berlioz, Chopin, Liszt, Verdi, and much more. So as long as you have an internet connection, it should be possible. Of course, actually using generated songs from copyrighted artists will probably require a fee, so most of it would just be for your own enjoyment.

2023-2024 is also a good place to predict that NLG will have encompassed computer languages in a GPT-2 like way (that is, a future GPT variant could generate Python or C++ or even binary code as competently as GPT-2 generated English). If they can pull off programming & coding languages that well, generating long, very coherent texts ought to be very doable. 

 

 

Jessica (didn't) ask: When will the first autonomous multipurpose robots start appearing in the home? How capable would they be? How much would it cost to have a humanoid robot?

 

 

It all comes down to AI. That's literally it. I've said plenty of times before that we could've had a domestic robot in the year 2000 when ASIMO was first released, but I really ought to correct myself: we could've had a domestic robot even in the 1980s, so long as you didn't expect it to be humanoid, move too quickly, and were fine with very rudimentary grippers and buttons. By the 1980s, the most basic physical requirements for robots to get around a certain level space had been solved. And by 2000, we had our first competent bipedal walking robot, so now they could handle uneven surfaces

 

It's not a hardware problem. It's entirely software. And considering where the software is, I can see early attempts to market home robots starting within just a few years, but it won't truly be a thing until the late 2020s.

I'm looking to robots like the UBTECH Walker as an example. These, I can see costing four to five figures early on. And their capabilities would be like what you once saw in ASIMO tech demos, except able to consistently do them in a real world setting.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#7
Jakob

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I guess I'll make a sincere post for the first time in a while lol.

 

1) Probably by 2025 or so, but only in the form of autonomous passenger drones that you summon like a taxi, and only in major cities.

2) You could probably get one around 2030 or so, but it'll take a while for them to become common. People don't upgrade their cars every year and when they do upgrade, they often get a used one. Let's say 2050 for it to be ubiquitous at level 4.

3) 2025-ish, it's just regulations to worry about at this point.

4) Probably never, the vast majority of things the internet is useful for don't require AR, and shoehorning it in would just make things annoying.

5) We've been slowing down aging for centuries, it's called medicine. Completely stopping it foreverwill always require large tradeoffs that the average being will be unwilling or unable to make.

6) If we're talking about handheld laser weapons powerful enough to be lethal. around 2100 unless the right to bear arms is infringed by totalitarians, and 2075 for the military. Laser guns would produce less noise pollution than regular ones and be easier to aim (no kickback, no worrying about gravity or wind), but who knows if this would outweigh the power consumption and general safety concerns.

7) You kind of already can, for very simple body parts? I don't know if they've ever actually implanted one in a person though. I'd say 2035 for very complex things like large organs or entire limbs. It would be really expensive until 2060 and affordable but still too expensive to do for shits and giggles around 2080.



#8
Yuli Ban

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Finally, on the topic of flying cars one last time (I know there's a dedicated thread for them somewhere, way back from 2014, but I'm too lazy to bump it), I've lost all interest in them becoming overly common. 

 

If, and only if, it turns out that there is some way to achieve """antigravity""" (e.g. able to float/hover/fly without loud noises or extreme energy expenditure in a form factor that can be scaled down to fit on a car by some arcane means— there's nothing in physics saying an antigravity effect is impossible; only antigravity itself), then this sort of sight would be feasible and we wouldn't have any problems.

 

As it stands, flying cars (i.e. passenger drones) are extremely niche. They're not really useful over long distances unless there's a revolution in energy density. And they're not all that useful for flying short distances either— it makes no sense to fly just a few streets over. Plus, since you can't fly them from and to anywhere, you'd still need a way to get around once you land in a place that might still be a full mile or more away from your destination, and once you bring in ride-sharing, the question then becomes "why not just save your money and ride a car to your destination, especially if you're going to ride one anyway?"

 

They're basically novelties, something to use to exclaim "Wow, it's the Future™!" It's dangerous for a market to rely on being a novelty, but I think drone taxi services could make it for a good while since people do like flying. That, and autonomous medical aerotransport.

 

 

 

To that end, as it stands, I've also come to embrace the idea that most science fiction portrayals of the future are only ever going to be somewhat right. We'll definitely have BCIs, space exploration, home robots, high-tech weaponry, exoskeletons, starscrapers, and more— but many of them won't resemble their fictional counterparts in form or function. Space exploration in general is likely never going to resemble the more Romantic notions of rugged space pioneers braving the elements of hostile alien worlds but rather vanguard probes & drones establishing colonies ahead of time as heavily modified humans arrive in tow (and that's the most it'll resemble said science fiction; once we get to the von Neumann probes, we're in posthuman territory). However, we will get such sci-fi futures and lives in virtual reality. We'll get whatever we want there.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.





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