This is roughly how I expect the US to balkanise based on current trends by the end of the century (I couldn't be bothered to do it literally county-by-county).
The problem with this map is that it is based on two at least partly contradictory premises:
- That the country will balkanise.
- That, except for the "American Republic" the most radical/progressive forces will win control in the respective regions where they live.
If the radical/progressive forces win across the board, then there will be no reason to balkanise. Lumping progressive New England together with the more conservative Midwest, and then having New England in the subordinate position, just makes it seem more plausible. In fact, there is no reason to believe that is how the split would play out. Certainly not initially.
If balkanisation does occur, initially it will be the South that will be dominated by reactionary forces. Reactionaries will suppress the vote of blacks in their region and most likely suppress the vote of Hispanics in Texas, so that Texas will belong to the reactionary South instead of the progressive Latina West. Florida will be more likely to join the South because of vote rigging there, along with Latinos that are more conservative due to their hostile memories of antipathy toward the Communists of Cuba. The Midwest, with the possible exceptions of Wisconsin, Illinois and Colorado, will cast its lot with the South, or stop short of actually wanting to separate from the rest of the country. There will be no reason for Washington and Oregon to separate itself from the Latina West. Only geographic distance will separate the Pacific from the northern Atlantic coast, and that only if the Midwest joins with the South.
If voter suppression efforts fail in Texas, Wisconsin, and Florida, then it is hard to see reactionary elements of the South becoming powerful enough to pull off a successful separatist movement.