Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!
Photo

Russia will begin disintegrating by 2020


  • Please log in to reply
10 replies to this topic

#1
funkervogt

funkervogt

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 994 posts

Thus predicted foreign policy "expert" George Friedman in 2015, during a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. The speech is here, and the segment where he talks about Russia's future begins at 48:12. 

 

https://youtu.be/QeLu_yyz3tc?t=2892

 

Friedman said that low oil prices and the shrinkage of its working-age population would hurt the Russian economy so badly that the country would start disintegrating "around 2020" but probably earlier. He reiterated this by saying "The Russians may be toast [by 2018-19]." 

 

Friedman was right that oil prices would stay low for the foreseeable future: It was about $50/barrel when he gave the speech and it mostly stayed within +/- $10 of that point for the next five years (before recently crashing due to the pandemic). However, Russia did not disintegrate. It didn't lose control over even the smallest patch of territory, nor does it look poised to do so. 

 

Putin remains a popular leader, and recent changes to the Russian constitution will make him President for life. 

 

I think the important takeaway is that the Russians are more resilient and Putin is more powerful than Westerners would like to believe. The U.S. is actually in a state of greater domestic upheaval than Russia right now. The other important takeaway is that many lauded experts have undeserved reputations for being good prognosticators of the future events. In the same Chicago Council speech, Friedman also wrongly predicted that Greece would default on its debts to its international creditors and leave the Eurozone. In 1991, he also wrongly predicted that the U.S. and Japan were headed for war within 20 years. 

https://www.foreigna...oming-war-japan



#2
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22,033 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

Title might need to be changed if the point is that Russia isn't disintegrating.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#3
PhoenixRu

PhoenixRu

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 963 posts

Friedman said... the country would start disintegrating "around 2020" but probably earlier. He reiterated this by saying "The Russians may be toast [by 2018-19]."

 

So far, Americans themselves are "toast" more than we are.

 

The other important takeaway is that many lauded experts have undeserved reputations for being good prognosticators of the future events.

 

This is quite expected when you're going to predict the specific future events with their exact dates, and not just general trends.

 

In 1991, he also wrongly predicted that the U.S. and Japan were headed for war within 20 years. 

 

And this was the silliest of his predictions. In 1991, the "issue" may have been "the same as in 1941", but the world system as a whole (economy, society, geopolitics, conflict resolution methods) was already qualitatively different.



#4
starspawn0

starspawn0

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,933 posts

His Japan prediction was probably motivated by the rising economic might of that country at the time, and its competition with U.S. companies, particularly carmakers.  The U.S. was a little afraid and also in awe of Japan in the late 80s, early 90s, much like how it is now of China.  It spawned a fascination with karate, and novels and films like Black Rain. 

 

But it all fell apart when Japan had a "lost decade", and its economy imploded.  Some have blamed the conservative Japanese business culture, that doesn't like making the hard, embarrassing decisions necessary to set things right.

 

Anyways, Friedman's prediction would have been only a little "out there" back in 1991.



#5
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22,033 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

His Japan prediction was probably motivated by the rising economic might of that country at the time, and its competition with U.S. companies, particularly carmakers.  The U.S. was a little afraid and also in awe of Japan in the late 80s, early 90s, much like how it is now of China.  It spawned a fascination with karate, and novels and films like Black Rain. 

 

But it all fell apart when Japan had a "lost decade", and its economy imploded.  Some have blamed the conservative Japanese business culture, that doesn't like making the hard, embarrassing decisions necessary to set things right.

 

Anyways, Friedman's prediction would have been only a little "out there" back in 1991.

1) Even in the situation that Japan avoided the Lost Decade, it's unlikely that we'd have come to blows. Japan is, after all, a liberal democracy with an economy that's well-integrated into the USA's. If we wanted to undermine them, we'd simply fund ruinous governors and statesmen to attain power. That's precisely what China was trying to avoid— some compromised bureaucrat or technocrat coming to power and shifting China into the West's lap like what happened with Russia in the '80s and '90s. That's also why our war with Japan was unavoidable back in the 1940s— not only had we become isolationist, but so had Japan (on top of being expansionist). Plus, they had a fascist military junta in control, making it much more difficult to compromise them. They needed resources of which America had control if they wanted to defeat China and establish an empire, so war with the USA was the only option. 

 

2) The USA was certainly afraid, but not the elite it seems. They understood the entire time the reason why Japan's rise was precarious and fleeting. After all, Japan was still effectively our vassal in Asia. 

 

3) The fascination with karate was just the latest wave of our fascination with martial arts, and that started in the early '70s.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#6
wjfox

wjfox

    Administrator

  • Administrators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,242 posts
  • LocationLondon

He also believes that the USA will cede territory to Mexico by the 2080s. I removed that prediction from our timeline, as it generated so much criticism.



#7
lechwall

lechwall

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 180 posts
  • LocationSunny England

Silly prediction a more realistic one is Russia will slide further into irrelevance.


"The future will be better tomorrow.  If we do not succeed, then we run the risk of failure.   For NASA, space is still a high priority. The Holocaust was an obscene period in our nation's history. No, not our nation's, but in World War II. I mean, we all lived in this century. I didn't live in this century, but in this century's history. Republicans understand the importance of bondage between a mother and child. We're going to have the best-educated American people in the world."  Dan Quayle

 


#8
wjfox

wjfox

    Administrator

  • Administrators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,242 posts
  • LocationLondon

Silly prediction a more realistic one is Russia will slide further into irrelevance.

 

Russia will be increasingly important for global food production, a valuable commodity as climate change worsens. Grain will eventually displace oil as the country’s biggest source of export revenue.



#9
lechwall

lechwall

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 180 posts
  • LocationSunny England

 

Silly prediction a more realistic one is Russia will slide further into irrelevance.

 

Russia will be increasingly important for global food production, a valuable commodity as climate change worsens. Grain will eventually displace oil as the country’s biggest source of export revenue.

 

 

They'll get far less $$$ for food than for oil. Besides if indoor farming takes off the potential increase in Russia's food production won't be important. Russia is ultimately like the UK a declining power living on past glories.


"The future will be better tomorrow.  If we do not succeed, then we run the risk of failure.   For NASA, space is still a high priority. The Holocaust was an obscene period in our nation's history. No, not our nation's, but in World War II. I mean, we all lived in this century. I didn't live in this century, but in this century's history. Republicans understand the importance of bondage between a mother and child. We're going to have the best-educated American people in the world."  Dan Quayle

 


#10
10 year march

10 year march

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 280 posts
I doubt this the gigantic collapse of the Soviet union will put Russians off letting Russia collapse to any degree

#11
funkervogt

funkervogt

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 994 posts

 

Silly prediction a more realistic one is Russia will slide further into irrelevance.

 

Russia will be increasingly important for global food production, a valuable commodity as climate change worsens. Grain will eventually displace oil as the country’s biggest source of export revenue.

 

Won't global warming raise Russia's farm output? Warmer weather means longer growing seasons. 






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users