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Russia will begin disintegrating by 2020


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#21
TranscendingGod

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You should show the map with only sea level rise as Bangladesh is already flood prone in many of the areas colored red given storm surges. Either way those projections are based on unrealistic assumptions about fossil fuel use. The world has already peaked in terms of coal usage and with the Coronavirus pandemic has likely peaked in terms of oil use as well. 2 out of the three major fossil fuel sources done and out? Pretty good if you ask me.
The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth.

#22
Yuli Ban

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Yeah, my feelings on this were already elaborated by others. 
 
If Bangladesh is not impacted severely by climate change, their potential relevance on the global stage will be vastly overshadowed by the emergence of artificial intelligence anyhow.
 
It's not even something that's in the future; vast swaths of the country already flood regularly.
 

NEARLY 75% OF BANGLADESH UNDERWATER

We capture stories like these because they put a face to the people who benefit from $0.90 of every dollar donated. But these are also just a snapshot of one person’s life at one moment. The reality behind Purbita’s story (and thousands of others that follow a similar arc) is that in Bangladesh, recovery is a constant cycle, because climate threats are a constant reality. 
Kutubdia was hit one year earlier by Cyclone Roanu. Drinking water facilities were contaminated in the flooding, and over 80% of the sanitation system was damaged by Cyclone Roanu. 
“My house was over there. At low tide, we can still see signs of our house,” fellow resident Zainal Abedin told the New York Times in 2018. He was on a shoreline, pointing about 100 feet away into the Bay of Bengal. In that same article, the Times revealed the region of Kutubdia, which is an island that’s part of the larger Cox’s Bazar district, has lost a full kilometer of shoreline since the 1960s. The saltwater poisons the rice paddies, and girls as young as 10 are married off by families who can no longer afford to provide for them. 
This isn’t unique to Kutubdia, either. Nearly 75% of Bangladesh is underwater.


And here's an entirely separate news story from this year:


If large fractions of your country are regularly submerged by storms, it won't be long until it's regularly submerged, period.
Living in Louisiana, this is already a threat for us due to our rapidly vanishing coastline.


And again, I can't see any possible advantage Bangladesh will have post-AGI barring the bizarre chance that the first AGI is made in Bangladesh.

 

Not helping matters is the fact they're squeezed in between two increasingly Islamophobic powers— India and China, with Myanmar also chasing refugees into their borders. 

And while they are posting great GDP growth yearly... they're starting from the bottom anyhow. This is not the first time a nation has grown at the rate they have; while they are getting wealthier, this could be undone easily should they hit a Middle Income Trap, and there's no reason to assume they won't.

 

It just comes across as deeply unlikely to me that Bangladesh will ever become a powerful nation; the systemic issues in place are too great.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#23
TranscendingGod

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If anything what I take away from this is that despite Bangadeshi challenges they are posting enviable growth rates, and so it would seem to me to be a prudent expectation that a richer Bangladesh would be better able to deal with the problems which already plague them. 


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth.

#24
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I'm highly confused as to why exactly Russia would begin disintegrating this year considering that the only parts of Russia that actually want to secede would probably be Chechnya and perhaps Ingushetia and also considering that Russia would be highly unlikely to voluntarily allow any of its territories to secede.



#25
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Yeah, my feelings on this were already elaborated by others. 
 
If Bangladesh is not impacted severely by climate change, their potential relevance on the global stage will be vastly overshadowed by the emergence of artificial intelligence anyhow.
 
It's not even something that's in the future; vast swaths of the country already flood regularly.
 

NEARLY 75% OF BANGLADESH UNDERWATER

We capture stories like these because they put a face to the people who benefit from $0.90 of every dollar donated. But these are also just a snapshot of one person’s life at one moment. The reality behind Purbita’s story (and thousands of others that follow a similar arc) is that in Bangladesh, recovery is a constant cycle, because climate threats are a constant reality. 
Kutubdia was hit one year earlier by Cyclone Roanu. Drinking water facilities were contaminated in the flooding, and over 80% of the sanitation system was damaged by Cyclone Roanu. 
“My house was over there. At low tide, we can still see signs of our house,” fellow resident Zainal Abedin told the New York Times in 2018. He was on a shoreline, pointing about 100 feet away into the Bay of Bengal. In that same article, the Times revealed the region of Kutubdia, which is an island that’s part of the larger Cox’s Bazar district, has lost a full kilometer of shoreline since the 1960s. The saltwater poisons the rice paddies, and girls as young as 10 are married off by families who can no longer afford to provide for them. 
This isn’t unique to Kutubdia, either. Nearly 75% of Bangladesh is underwater.


And here's an entirely separate news story from this year:


If large fractions of your country are regularly submerged by storms, it won't be long until it's regularly submerged, period.
Living in Louisiana, this is already a threat for us due to our rapidly vanishing coastline.


And again, I can't see any possible advantage Bangladesh will have post-AGI barring the bizarre chance that the first AGI is made in Bangladesh.

 

Not helping matters is the fact they're squeezed in between two increasingly Islamophobic powers— India and China, with Myanmar also chasing refugees into their borders. 

And while they are posting great GDP growth yearly... they're starting from the bottom anyhow. This is not the first time a nation has grown at the rate they have; while they are getting wealthier, this could be undone easily should they hit a Middle Income Trap, and there's no reason to assume they won't.

 

It just comes across as deeply unlikely to me that Bangladesh will ever become a powerful nation; the systemic issues in place are too great.

In regards to Louisiana, at least the people there could migrate further inland! ;) This isn't really an option for Bangladesh due to the whole country being overcrowded. Maybe Bangladesh's surplus population could emigrate to other, less densely populated countries? The question, of course, is where exactly? Maybe somewhere in East Africa considering that some of those countries already have a South Asian diaspora even right now?



#26
Computron

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Yeah, my feelings on this were already elaborated by others. 
 
If Bangladesh is not impacted severely by climate change, their potential relevance on the global stage will be vastly overshadowed by the emergence of artificial intelligence anyhow.
 
It's not even something that's in the future; vast swaths of the country already flood regularly.
 

NEARLY 75% OF BANGLADESH UNDERWATER

We capture stories like these because they put a face to the people who benefit from $0.90 of every dollar donated. But these are also just a snapshot of one person’s life at one moment. The reality behind Purbita’s story (and thousands of others that follow a similar arc) is that in Bangladesh, recovery is a constant cycle, because climate threats are a constant reality. 
Kutubdia was hit one year earlier by Cyclone Roanu. Drinking water facilities were contaminated in the flooding, and over 80% of the sanitation system was damaged by Cyclone Roanu. 
“My house was over there. At low tide, we can still see signs of our house,” fellow resident Zainal Abedin told the New York Times in 2018. He was on a shoreline, pointing about 100 feet away into the Bay of Bengal. In that same article, the Times revealed the region of Kutubdia, which is an island that’s part of the larger Cox’s Bazar district, has lost a full kilometer of shoreline since the 1960s. The saltwater poisons the rice paddies, and girls as young as 10 are married off by families who can no longer afford to provide for them. 
This isn’t unique to Kutubdia, either. Nearly 75% of Bangladesh is underwater.


And here's an entirely separate news story from this year:


If large fractions of your country are regularly submerged by storms, it won't be long until it's regularly submerged, period.
Living in Louisiana, this is already a threat for us due to our rapidly vanishing coastline.


And again, I can't see any possible advantage Bangladesh will have post-AGI barring the bizarre chance that the first AGI is made in Bangladesh.
 
Not helping matters is the fact they're squeezed in between two increasingly Islamophobic powers— India and China, with Myanmar also chasing refugees into their borders. 
And while they are posting great GDP growth yearly... they're starting from the bottom anyhow. This is not the first time a nation has grown at the rate they have; while they are getting wealthier, this could be undone easily should they hit a Middle Income Trap, and there's no reason to assume they won't.
 
It just comes across as deeply unlikely to me that Bangladesh will ever become a powerful nation; the systemic issues in place are too great.
In regards to Louisiana, at least the people there could migrate further inland! ;) This isn't really an option for Bangladesh due to the whole country being overcrowded. Maybe Bangladesh's surplus population could emigrate to other, less densely populated countries? The question, of course, is where exactly? Maybe somewhere in East Africa considering that some of those countries already have a South Asian diaspora even right now?

It would raise the collective IQ of east africa from mudhut to shoddy metal shack right futurist?

#27
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Yeah, my feelings on this were already elaborated by others. 
 
If Bangladesh is not impacted severely by climate change, their potential relevance on the global stage will be vastly overshadowed by the emergence of artificial intelligence anyhow.
 
It's not even something that's in the future; vast swaths of the country already flood regularly.
 

NEARLY 75% OF BANGLADESH UNDERWATER

We capture stories like these because they put a face to the people who benefit from $0.90 of every dollar donated. But these are also just a snapshot of one person’s life at one moment. The reality behind Purbita’s story (and thousands of others that follow a similar arc) is that in Bangladesh, recovery is a constant cycle, because climate threats are a constant reality. 
Kutubdia was hit one year earlier by Cyclone Roanu. Drinking water facilities were contaminated in the flooding, and over 80% of the sanitation system was damaged by Cyclone Roanu. 
“My house was over there. At low tide, we can still see signs of our house,” fellow resident Zainal Abedin told the New York Times in 2018. He was on a shoreline, pointing about 100 feet away into the Bay of Bengal. In that same article, the Times revealed the region of Kutubdia, which is an island that’s part of the larger Cox’s Bazar district, has lost a full kilometer of shoreline since the 1960s. The saltwater poisons the rice paddies, and girls as young as 10 are married off by families who can no longer afford to provide for them. 
This isn’t unique to Kutubdia, either. Nearly 75% of Bangladesh is underwater.


And here's an entirely separate news story from this year:


If large fractions of your country are regularly submerged by storms, it won't be long until it's regularly submerged, period.
Living in Louisiana, this is already a threat for us due to our rapidly vanishing coastline.


And again, I can't see any possible advantage Bangladesh will have post-AGI barring the bizarre chance that the first AGI is made in Bangladesh.
 
Not helping matters is the fact they're squeezed in between two increasingly Islamophobic powers— India and China, with Myanmar also chasing refugees into their borders. 
And while they are posting great GDP growth yearly... they're starting from the bottom anyhow. This is not the first time a nation has grown at the rate they have; while they are getting wealthier, this could be undone easily should they hit a Middle Income Trap, and there's no reason to assume they won't.
 
It just comes across as deeply unlikely to me that Bangladesh will ever become a powerful nation; the systemic issues in place are too great.
In regards to Louisiana, at least the people there could migrate further inland! ;) This isn't really an option for Bangladesh due to the whole country being overcrowded. Maybe Bangladesh's surplus population could emigrate to other, less densely populated countries? The question, of course, is where exactly? Maybe somewhere in East Africa considering that some of those countries already have a South Asian diaspora even right now?

It would raise the collective IQ of east africa from mudhut to shoddy metal shack right futurist?

That's actually pretty funny! :D ;) In all seriousness, though, South Asians have become a type of commercial class in countries such as Uganda and perhaps South Africa in the past, so there actually is some sort of precedent for this.



#28
TranscendingGod

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Futurist you're wrong about the country being "overcrowded" in the sense that they wouldn't be able to physically move to a different location within the country. Even the most densely population countries, like Bangladesh, have abundant physical space considering that the majority of the country is not a massive conurbation. Either way even the very pessimistic climatic projections don't condemn Bangladesh to complete submersion, but rather to a more severe form of what they're already experiencing. 


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth.

#29
Futurist

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Futurist you're wrong about the country being "overcrowded" in the sense that they wouldn't be able to physically move to a different location within the country. Even the most densely population countries, like Bangladesh, have abundant physical space considering that the majority of the country is not a massive conurbation. Either way even the very pessimistic climatic projections don't condemn Bangladesh to complete submersion, but rather to a more severe form of what they're already experiencing. 

Well, that's uplifting to know. Thank you for clarifying this part.






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