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Do you think that you're personally prepared for the world 10 years from now?

AI BCI 2030

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15 replies to this topic

#1
Metalane

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I really don't think I am. Hopefully I will have gained enough education and wisdom on upcoming tech within the next few years, so I'll get a better idea.



#2
Ewolf20

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I would be dead by then.

#3
Omosoap

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Nope I'm totally unprepared, although really, it is very difficult to predict the future with accuracy. Sometimes it's like investing in stocks or other things, it could be gone with little forewarning etc. At this point, I'm just focused on survival really, living day to day and seeing what happens next. Going back to my roots I guess, as nowadays the world feels like the chaos that ensues when being dragged around the world as a kid with sometimes little forewarning of what the next month will bring. Lol! It doesn't bring stability or security, but you learn to adapt to your environment, and gain flexibility. 



#4
Revolutionary Moderate

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I am not, although I don't think anyone is, as the changes in the world that will happen by 2030 will make it look very different from now. 


The Potato Praiser 


#5
funkervogt

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I think I'll be ready. 



#6
starspawn0

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No, I don't think I'm "prepared".  My instinct is that with about 70% probability the next 10 years will see a lot of change, but it will not disrupt our lives enough to where the social contract needs to be rewritten just yet.  But there's about a 30% probability that it will need to be rewritten.  

 

About 5 years ago, I would have flipped these estimates for the decade 2020 to 2030, with 30% probability of things being manageable, and 70% probability that they won't.

 

But there's still that 30%.  I could list lots of scenarios for you, but here is one:

 

Consider GPT-3, which we've all heard about.  There's a lot more about it on my Reddit forum than has been posted here -- it's truly schocking what it is capable of.  Most people have no idea.  But it has its limits.  The next iterations are going to be much smarter, and that will take place in the span of a small number of years -- and will come from lots of companies, not just OpenAI.  

 

What would cause it to have the greatest impact on jobs?  

 

I think what we'll see is some apps, like the ones now being created using OpenAI's GPT-3 API.  A blizzard of apps.  What these apps will do is reduce the need for skilled labor.  For example, you won't need to know how to program anymore to have a job coding (but will need to be able to tell if a proposed solution "looks right", which you then ok).  All you'll need to do is describe to an app what you want done, and it will produce little 50-line snippets of code that you can then thread together into a larger program.  These could also debug -- so, for example, all those Cobol programmers you hear about that are still in demand can be replaced with a low-skilled worker + app.  

 

If such an app could be incorporated into AR glasses, then it would be like having JARVIS around to help you do your job.  All you'd have to do is approve each step.  That would remove a lot of the friction of people using the app.  

 

Only the very high skill jobs will be unscathed.  I have such a "high skill job", but can't really predict all the ways a blizzard of JARVIS-like apps on AR glasses will affect it.



#7
Metalane

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No, I don't think I'm "prepared".  My instinct is that with about 70% probability the next 10 years will see a lot of change, but it will not disrupt our lives enough to where the social contract needs to be rewritten just yet.  But there's about a 30% probability that it will need to be rewritten.  

 

About 5 years ago, I would have flipped these estimates for the decade 2020 to 2030, with 30% probability of things being manageable, and 70% probability that they won't.

 

But there's still that 30%.  I could list lots of scenarios for you, but here is one:

 

Consider GPT-3, which we've all heard about.  There's a lot more about it on my Reddit forum than has been posted here -- it's truly schocking what it is capable of.  Most people have no idea.  But it has its limits.  The next iterations are going to be much smarter, and that will take place in the span of a small number of years -- and will come from lots of companies, not just OpenAI.  

 

What would cause it to have the greatest impact on jobs?  

 

I think what we'll see is some apps, like the ones now being created using OpenAI's GPT-3 API.  A blizzard of apps.  What these apps will do is reduce the need for skilled labor.  For example, you won't need to know how to program anymore to have a job coding (but will need to be able to tell if a proposed solution "looks right", which you then ok).  All you'll need to do is describe to an app what you want done, and it will produce little 50-line snippets of code that you can then thread together into a larger program.  These could also debug -- so, for example, all those Cobol programmers you hear about that are still in demand can be replaced with a low-skilled worker + app.  

 

If such an app could be incorporated into AR glasses, then it would be like having JARVIS around to help you do your job.  All you'd have to do is approve each step.  That would remove a lot of the friction of people using the app.  

 

Only the very high skill jobs will be unscathed.  I have such a "high skill job", but can't really predict all the ways a blizzard of JARVIS-like apps on AR glasses will affect it.

Thanks for the write up! A few years ago I referred to the 2020's as the "Decade of Augmentation", both literally and figuratively, and it seems that term will remain correct as the decade progresses. I also believe new art movements will be born... but I'll leave that for another post so I won't ramble on here.

 

Also, besides what has been posted here and on Twitter, what other *shocking* things has GPT-3 accomplished?



#8
Raklian

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We'll have to take things in stride. Humans are very adaptable, so we should be ok. 


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#9
Blue Kumul

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More changes happened between 2000 and 2010 than between 2010 and 2020. In the 2000s we went from "Nokia 3310" type phones to smart phones and social media. 2020 is mostly like 2010, though of course the models have changed. Work from home increased drastically because of the pandemic, but it wasn't unknown in the 2000s.

 

Really I spend less time online in 2020 than I did in 2007 - because I don't want to gawk at screen all day anymore.



#10
10 year march

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yes, I am already designing a template for the VR simulation I want to live in



#11
Jessica

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I think America will have a violent civil war within the next 10 years that will leave America quite the mess.



#12
Raarnt

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I'm pretty adaptible, but like elderly people today, I suspect I too will find it increasingly hard to follow the trends of technology, the new tech lingo, and slowly be relegated to the history books like a dinosaur...



#13
Raarnt

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I think America will have a violent civil war within the next 10 years that will leave America quite the mess.

 

I mean no offense, but to me it already seems quite the mess.



#14
Erowind

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/\ Very Tru Raarnt xD. In any case I do think I'll be prepared in 10 years. Don't let the denialists dissuade any of you. Many climate scientists have already openly written about emigrating to safer geographies now. The climate crisis is coming and it's coming fast. This will be more apparent in 2030 than it is now if you're not already affected by it. If you live in a country that won't be habitable later this century it would be wise to leave before safer countries start closing their borders. It will likely happen sooner than expected and could be very sudden when it does.

 

Americans specifically would do well to get to rural Canada, Alaska, Northern Appalachia or Northern New England btw. The less people around the better and the easier access to freshwater and topsoil the better. There are safe pockets all over even in the west, but those whole regions will be better off overall.

 

Edit: Paragraphs and a note. I'm not saying the sky will be falling in 2030. I'm saying that we should strive to be well positioned before it does in our regions and that geography and community are our best tools to adaptation.



#15
Kynareth

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More changes happened between 2000 and 2010 than between 2010 and 2020. In the 2000s we went from "Nokia 3310" type phones to smart phones and social media. 2020 is mostly like 2010, though of course the models have changed. Work from home increased drastically because of the pandemic, but it wasn't unknown in the 2000s.

I think that the 60s, 90s and 00s were the most filled with positive changes. Since 2011 productivity growth in the U.S. is slower (it doesn't trickle down to common people that much anyway), PC tech like CPUs and RAM improve slower and cost more, high budget video games and movies are getting worse, SJW propaganda, people are addicted to social media which isn't a good thing, mental illnesses are on the rise, drug use is on the rise, political polarization is on the rise, smartphones are much better but battery life is still horrible, useless gadgets like smartbands or smartwatches exist.

 

AI, VR, AR, robots, exoskeletons, flying cars, supersonic airplanes, curing diseases, reversing aging - these are the interesting things and they are still not here, but in the possible future.

 

Honestly, I don't know if 2030 will or won't be much different. Possibly, by then true general artificial intelligence on human level+ may be working.



#16
Metalane

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More changes happened between 2000 and 2010 than between 2010 and 2020. In the 2000s we went from "Nokia 3310" type phones to smart phones and social media. 2020 is mostly like 2010, though of course the models have changed. Work from home increased drastically because of the pandemic, but it wasn't unknown in the 2000s.

I think that the 60s, 90s and 00s were the most filled with positive changes. Since 2011 productivity growth in the U.S. is slower (it doesn't trickle down to common people that much anyway), PC tech like CPUs and RAM improve slower and cost more, high budget video games and movies are getting worse, SJW propaganda, people are addicted to social media which isn't a good thing, mental illnesses are on the rise, drug use is on the rise, political polarization is on the rise, smartphones are much better but battery life is still horrible, useless gadgets like smartbands or smartwatches exist.

 

AI, VR, AR, robots, exoskeletons, flying cars, supersonic airplanes, curing diseases, reversing aging - these are the interesting things and they are still not here, but in the possible future.

 

Honestly, I don't know if 2030 will or won't be much different. Possibly, by then true general artificial intelligence on human level+ may be working.

 

A large portion of those negative changes you've listed are very vague. By "drug use is on the rise" does that include recreational, for example? By "political polarization" are referring specifically to the U.S.? Also, everything you listed from AI to reversing aging is in the beginning stages as we speak, they will be the next generation of technologies that will creep their way into society faster than we can anticipate.







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