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Future malls


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#1
funkervogt

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The retail industry, and malls in particular, are taking a major hit thanks to the pandemic, and it's an open question how many of them will survive. I just found this set of predictions on the matter, written by a career futurist: 

 

https://futuristspea...-shopping-mall/

 

I agree with him that the mall as a concept isn't going to die anytime soon, even if many individual retailers and malls will soon go extinct. His belief that the surviving malls will have new compositions of tenants (e.g. - more fulfillment centers, showrooms, and gaming centers) is likely to materialize, and in fact it's been my observation that American malls have been heading in that direction for a decade. 

 

I think we're soon headed for the extinction of the ailing, "not-upscale, small-and-midsize" mall that people were perfectly happy with in the 1980s and 90s, and we'll be left with a smaller number of "mega malls" that are one-stop-shops for a typical family's retail, entertainment, and even financial and medical needs. 

 

The futurist's prediction about the rise of malls comprised of "mobile businesses" is much less convincing. He imagines a future mall being a central structure that RVs can "plug in" to, offering a shifting array of business types to the local people. It's really just an extension of the food truck concept. 

 

While it sounds interesting and plausible in theory, I doubt it will be profitable in practice. If food trucks are any indication, the competition will be cutthroat, vendors will fight for access to the best locations, and poorer places will remain chronically underserved. The retail experience will also be inferior in most cases if the business is restricted to an RV-sized store rather than a typical mall space, which has several times the floor space.  



#2
funkervogt

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Here's a timely article about how residential complexes are replacing ailing malls. This is happening to a midsize mall near my town. 

 

“Before the Great Recession we had too many retail spaces; now we have way too many retail spaces,” says White. “It may be we’ll only be left with the A malls. Before the pandemic, I thought the B-plus malls would survive. The outdoor lifestyle centers will survive — they’re perceived as safer than indoors. But it’s hard to escape the fact that we’ve trained people to fear the world, and that it’s going to have long-term impacts on their behaviors.”

 
Converting commercial real estate to housing may be the best use of land in such an over-retailed country. Big shopping centers tend to be centrally located and connected to transit. Hunter sees excess retail space at malls becoming more adaptive, and filling uses that aren’t hospitality focused, such as residential, or even flex or warehouse space. During a time of housing shortages, Lake believes that transforming empty commercial buildings is a “moral imperative.” 

https://www.bloomber...ls-into-housing



#3
Nick1984

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Considering that malls are booming in countries like India, China and Brazil there's certainly a place for them long term for retail.

The impression I get from America is that every small town ended up with a mall during the 70s/80s boom and far too many were built, and now a correction is taking place.

#4
White_Lotus

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The Northgate Mall in Seattle has long been considered to be the first "mall" in America. Whether or not it was first, I'm not here to dispute. What I would like to discuss is what has happened to that mall. The Northgate Mall has been dying slowly for years. The owners have long wanted to get into real estate. They had offered to buy the apartment complex across the street but were rebuffed. The new plan is a complete redesign of the mall. They are going to have multiple buildings with retail space on the lower floors and residences on the upper floors. This is considered a great way to most efficiently employ a mixed space concept. I'm not saying that all malls are going this way, but it's not a stretch to think that malls of the future might not look like the prototypical mall of today.



#5
Nick1984

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https://realty.econo...report/69988589

Despite the onslaught of the e-commerce business across the country, malls are still serious business as indicated by the number of development planned and proposed by realty developers. The sector is riding high on the phenomenal rise of consumerism and renewed interest by institutional investors.

India is set to get over 65 million sq ft of new mall spaces by the end of 2022. Of this total new supply, the top 7 cities comprise 72% share and the remaining 28% or 18.2 million sq ft is slated to come up in tier 2 and 3 cities, said Anarock Property Consultants report.


https://www.dnaindia...ars-2628815/amp

In the next five years, India is likely to witness opening of 85 new malls.

As per latest data available with Anarock Property Consultants of these 85 malls that are under construction, over 30 of them are expected to open just in the top eight Indian cities by 2020.

“Cities that have seen maximum malls include Gurgaon, Noida, Greater Noida and Delhi in the National Capital Region, Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru and Pune. Over the next five years, nearly 85 malls are expected to come up in India, and more than 30 new malls accounting for nearly 14 million square feet area are expected to open just in the top eight cities by 2020,” said Anuj Kejriwal, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Anarock Retail.


696937-mall-122817-copy.jpg




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