19 replies to this topic

[funkervogt]

I'd like to solicit predictions from all members on this ghoulish subject. 

 

The question: "How many people, in your country and/or worldwide, will COVID-19 kill before the virus is rendered no more of a threat than the seasonal flu (either thanks to mass vaccination or herd immunity)?" 

 

The second part of the question is there to cover the real possibility that COVID-19 will never be totally eradicated, and will continue killing relatively small numbers of people forever. 

 

Finally, if you believe COVID-19 will mutate into something more deadly, don't add that tally to your estimate, as that disease shouldn't be thought of as the same as COVID-19 (I imagine it would be called something like "COVID-21"). 

[Raklian]

Definitely at least 1 million worldwide. At least 250,000 for USA.

 

I doubt it will be readily eradicated due to how highly transmissible it is and the antibodies that detect it go away rather quickly after infection. Dr. Fauci did say he isn't even sure we can eliminate it entirely.

[funkervogt]

Definitely at least 1 million worldwide. At least 250,000 for USA.

 

That's optimistic. The U-Washington model predicts 230,000 U.S. deaths by November 1. I see no chance a vaccine will be developed and disseminated fast enough to lower that estimate. 

 

At the current rate, U.S. deaths will hit 250,000 before December 1. 

[Erowind]

With a vaccine within the next 6-12 months 10-20 million globally. Many poorer populations will not get vaccines in time or at all hence the high number. In the first scenario most deaths (barring maybe America because of immense cultural ignorance) will be in the undeveloped and developing world. Between 105-150 million people without a vaccine. The second prediction is based on a ~1.5% death rate assuming the virus is uncontained globally. I don't think the virus is as deadly as some media would have us believe but it's also no flu. The death rate has dropped as more people are tested overall making the statistic more accurate.

[funkervogt]

I predict that COVID-19 will kill between 400,000 and 1 million Americans by the time it is rendered no more of a threat than the seasonal flu. I base my prediction on the following assumptions:

 

1) A vaccine won't be found until this winter at the earliest, will not be 100% effective, and will not be widely distributed until mid-2021 at the earliest. 

2) COVID-19 kills 0.6% of the people it infects. 

3) It's possible that up to half of Americans will get COVID-19 before the virus is tamed. 

[Raklian]

 

I predict that COVID-19 will kill between 400,000 and 1 million Americans by the time it is rendered no more of a threat than the seasonal flu. I base my prediction on the following assumptions:

 

1) A vaccine won't be found until this winter at the earliest, will not be 100% effective, and will not be widely distributed until mid-2021 at the earliest. 

2) COVID-19 kills 0.6% of the people it infects. 

3) It's possible that up to half of Americans will get COVID-19 before the virus is tamed. 

 

 

If we were to use the Spanish Flu as a reference which also had a very similar fatality-case ratio, at least 1.5 million Americans will die assuming 1/3 (110 million) of all Americans get infected while waiting for a vaccine that won't come until spring 2021. That's still optimistic given the extremely high virality of Covid-19.

 

I haven't even touched on the fact Covid-19 can reinfect. Also, I wonder about the implications if we get infected with Covid-19 and the seasonal flu nearly at the same time as the flu season comes into full swing. Once we fight off one of the viruses, our bodies are saturated with antibodies that only target the virus that it just fought off, leaving the gate wide open for a different virus to invade. It may be that younger people generally will do fine, but I'm not so sure about older people and those with underlying medical conditions.

[funkervogt]

 

Definitely at least 1 million worldwide. At least 250,000 for USA.

 

That's optimistic. The U-Washington model predicts 230,000 U.S. deaths by November 1. I see no chance a vaccine will be developed and disseminated fast enough to lower that estimate. 

 

At the current rate, U.S. deaths will hit 250,000 before December 1. 

 

Update: The U.S. just hit 200,000 deaths, so the Model is still on track for AT LEAST 230,000 deaths by November 1. 

 

It also now predicts there will be 300,000 U.S. deaths by December 10. 

[Huisache]

I predict it will be at least 1.5 million worldwide and that is the best case scenario if the vaccine is developed sooner.

[Yuli Ban]

Considering that:

 

• Some places are still in the first wave
• The second wave's just getting started
• Widespread medical system collapse hasn't yet happened but very likely will in the next few months
• Full economic collapse has not yet truly started but also likely will in the next few months
• Lockdown efforts were pisspoor
• A vaccine likely won't reach the masses until this time next year
• Governments of the hardest hit areas are actively and obviously downplaying the true number of deaths and serious infections (i.e. the full extent of the first wave are not known to the public)
• Recombination into a deadlier form is still possible

 

I'm going to say that the final death tally is going to be somewhere between six million and fifteen million (the latter of which touches lower-end estimates of the Spanish Flu's death toll, not adjusted for population changes). The true death toll right now might actually be closer to 1.5 million. And there's already been a lot of buzz going around about how there are about 50,000 unknown "excess deaths" recorded in the USA since March (you've probably seen "200,000 excess deaths" somewhere back around August, when the death toll in the USA was around 150,000— that's because said 150k were officially counted as COVID-19, but the extra 50,000 were not marked as COVID for whatever reason; that gap has definitely grown by now).

[Raklian]

The Pandemic of 2020 does have an ominous ring to it, so yeah a lot more deaths are coming.

[Revolutionary Moderate]

Now that some time has passed since the last post and updates about COVID-19 vaccines are constantly in the news, I think its time to resurrect this thread. My guess depends on how quickly everyone gets vaccinated. If it doesn't take too long, I think the death toll would be under 2 million. If it takes a long time, which it probably what will happen, the death toll will be above 2 million, but not by much.

[wjfox]

Cases and deaths are still soaring. Things might ease off in 2021, but there's still a long way to go.

 

It's estimated that worldwide vaccine coverage could take until 2024, maybe even later. And eliminating COVID altogether could take decades.

 

Difficult to say how many it will kill. The apparent success of these new vaccines and their high efficacy rates does give a lot of hope, plus there's the antibody treatments, and general improvement in care, track and trace, etc. Then again, a lot of people will refuse a vaccine, and/or continue to flout guidelines.

 

My guess would be somewhere in the 3–7 million range by 2025.

[funkervogt]

 

I predict that COVID-19 will kill between 400,000 and 1 million Americans by the time it is rendered no more of a threat than the seasonal flu. I base my prediction on the following assumptions:

 

1) A vaccine won't be found until this winter at the earliest, will not be 100% effective, and will not be widely distributed until mid-2021 at the earliest. 

2) COVID-19 kills 0.6% of the people it infects. 

3) It's possible that up to half of Americans will get COVID-19 before the virus is tamed. 

 

 

The only thing I'll change about my prediction is the minimum death toll, which I'll now raise to 500,000. 

[starspawn0]

This is my estimate from back in early May (May 2), when it was actually courageous to make such an estimate (and I got attacked for being so "stupid"):

https://www.futureti...sions/?p=280655
 

Here's a way of looking at just how high the official worldometers and JHU Covid-19 death states will be for this season alone, just by looking at the already-quoted data:

 

 https://www.worldome...fo/coronavirus/

 

There have already been 65,753 deaths, and there are currently 16,481 that are in ICUs in critical condition.  According to this, about 50% of Covid-19 patients in ICUs die:

 

https://www.physicia...on-ventilators/

 

Let's lower that a little, due to improved medicines and stuff, to 30%.  Then, we can expect that at least

 

30% of 16,481 ~ 4,944

 

additional people will die.  That means about 71,000 will die just considering the people who are in ICUs right now.  And if we take the higher figure of 50% mortality, then it's already going to add to nearly 74,000 dead.  

 

But that doesn't count the additional people who are going to go on ICUs in the next couple weeks.  Let's figure that adds an extra 4,000 to the death count.  So, we're looking at nearly 75,000 to 80,000 dead in the next month for the official count.  

 

The true figure might be even higher.  

 

The actual number of deaths, that will be worked out in a few months, once the actuarial tables are in, is probably going to be at least 130,000 for this season.  If you add on deaths in the fall and later this year, it's probably going to be around 250,000 or more for the year.

 

I made a few more estimates like that.  If memory serves, I also defended one of IHME's later estimates as not being unreasonable, where they said 400,000+ for this year -- if you include those who died from Covid that aren't in the official count (you have to look at excess deaths for this).  I furthermore said if people don't use masks and let the social distancing and other measures weaken, the death toll could be even higher.

[Revolutionary Moderate]

Now that people are being vaccinated in many countries, I guess the final death toll will be between 2.5 and 3 million.

[Revolutionary Moderate]

As vaccinations are ongoing in many countries and the death toll of COVID-19 is nearing 3 million, I have decided to resurrect this thread once again. I expect the death rate of COVID-19 will drop as the population of developing countries are younger than the population of developed countries, so I expect the death toll to not exceed 5 million.

[PhoenixRu]

...so I expect the death toll to not exceed 5 million.

 

Current official death toll is near 3 million. Given the unreported deaths and/or deliberately rigged statistics, the numbers of deaths has, most likely, long exceeded 5 million. You can do the rough guess by excess mortality, but these numbers, too, are not always indicative or reliable.

 

Once I was an optimist (was predicting below one million), but not today... Obviously this "wave" is not last, there will be others, the vaccination of the whole world will take years and years, not all vaccines will become as good as claimed, and so on... other words, this story is not yet coming to an end, and the official death toll will far exceed 5 million.

 

All we can do is try to not become the part of this stats ourselves. With basic common sense and already existing vaccines, this is quite possible.

[joe00uk]

Current official death toll is near 3 million. Given the unreported deaths and/or deliberately rigged statistics, the numbers of deaths has, most likely, long exceeded 5 million. You can do the rough guess by excess mortality, but these numbers, too, are not always indicative or reliable.

It could be lower than that too, though. We don't really know that each of these 3 million actually died of Covid and not just with it. In the UK, for example, anyone who dies of any reason within 28 days of a positive test is counted as a Covid death, which is obviously a ridiculous way of counting them and has lent itself to extreme abuse. I suppose inflated counts in countries like the UK might be more than counterbalanced by the lack of counting in countries like India, Brazil, or across Africa. 

[PhoenixRu]

It could be lower than that too, though. We don't really know that each of these 3 million actually died of Covid and not just with it. In the UK, for example, anyone who dies of any reason within 28 days of a positive test is counted as a Covid death, which is obviously a ridiculous way of counting them

 

But on the other hand, not everyone who actually died of COVID was previously tested. For example, Italy registered about 115 thousand deaths from COVID and 400 thousand excess mortality. Russia have TWO parallel official counts, one of them being proudly presented to outside world, and second one is for internal use and usually 1,5-2 times higher. Turkey was caught manipulating with statistics, and I don't even want to start about Ukraine...

 

These are developed (more or less) countries. As for the rest of the world, the official statistics becomes even less reliable. Call me racist, but I cannot believe in superior African healthcare. For example, Tanzania reported only 21 (twenty one!!!) deaths, but even their neighbors (also affected) consider Tanzanian situation a hell on earth.

 

[funkervogt]

There are major problems with the official COVID-19 death toll. For one, the number of deaths in Africa is massively underreported: 

 

 

Only eight African countries out of more than 50 have a compulsory system to register deaths, a BBC investigation has found.

 

This is not just a failure of the state to recognise individual tragedies but has enormous implications for the making of government policy.

 

All but two countries in Europe - Albania and Monaco - have a universal death registration system, and in Asia, just over half, analysis of UN data shows.

 

https://www.bbc.com/...africa-55674139

 

I'm sure there are similar problems in poor countries elsewhere, like India, Pakistan and Papua New Guinea. 

 

That said, it's also true the death count is being inflated in rich countries because of questionable practices like joe00uk pointed out. I doubt we'll ever know how many people COVID-19 killed during its first year with a precision of better than +/- 500,000.