This is my estimate from back in early May (May 2), when it was actually courageous to make such an estimate (and I got attacked for being so "stupid"):
Here's a way of looking at just how high the official worldometers and JHU Covid-19 death states will be for this season alone, just by looking at the already-quoted data:
There have already been 65,753 deaths, and there are currently 16,481 that are in ICUs in critical condition. According to this, about 50% of Covid-19 patients in ICUs die:
Let's lower that a little, due to improved medicines and stuff, to 30%. Then, we can expect that at least
30% of 16,481 ~ 4,944
additional people will die. That means about 71,000 will die just considering the people who are in ICUs right now. And if we take the higher figure of 50% mortality, then it's already going to add to nearly 74,000 dead.
But that doesn't count the additional people who are going to go on ICUs in the next couple weeks. Let's figure that adds an extra 4,000 to the death count. So, we're looking at nearly 75,000 to 80,000 dead in the next month for the official count.
The true figure might be even higher.
The actual number of deaths, that will be worked out in a few months, once the actuarial tables are in, is probably going to be at least 130,000 for this season. If you add on deaths in the fall and later this year, it's probably going to be around 250,000 or more for the year.
I made a few more estimates like that. If memory serves, I also defended one of IHME's later estimates as not being unreasonable, where they said 400,000+ for this year -- if you include those who died from Covid that aren't in the official count (you have to look at excess deaths for this). I furthermore said if people don't use masks and let the social distancing and other measures weaken, the death toll could be even higher.