6 replies to this topic

[funkervogt]

I'd like to solicit predictions from all members on this ghoulish subject. 

 

The question: "How many people, in your country and/or worldwide, will COVID-19 kill before the virus is rendered no more of a threat than the seasonal flu (either thanks to mass vaccination or herd immunity)?" 

 

The second part of the question is there to cover the real possibility that COVID-19 will never be totally eradicated, and will continue killing relatively small numbers of people forever. 

 

Finally, if you believe COVID-19 will mutate into something more deadly, don't add that tally to your estimate, as that disease shouldn't be thought of as the same as COVID-19 (I imagine it would be called something like "COVID-21"). 

[Raklian]

Definitely at least 1 million worldwide. At least 250,000 for USA.

 

I doubt it will be readily eradicated due to how highly transmissible it is and the antibodies that detect it go away rather quickly after infection. Dr. Fauci did say he isn't even sure we can eliminate it entirely.

[funkervogt]

Definitely at least 1 million worldwide. At least 250,000 for USA.

 

That's optimistic. The U-Washington model predicts 230,000 U.S. deaths by November 1. I see no chance a vaccine will be developed and disseminated fast enough to lower that estimate. 

 

At the current rate, U.S. deaths will hit 250,000 before December 1. 

[Erowind]

With a vaccine within the next 6-12 months 10-20 million globally. Many poorer populations will not get vaccines in time or at all hence the high number. In the first scenario most deaths (barring maybe America because of immense cultural ignorance) will be in the undeveloped and developing world. Between 105-150 million people without a vaccine. The second prediction is based on a ~1.5% death rate assuming the virus is uncontained globally. I don't think the virus is as deadly as some media would have us believe but it's also no flu. The death rate has dropped as more people are tested overall making the statistic more accurate.

[funkervogt]

I predict that COVID-19 will kill between 400,000 and 1 million Americans by the time it is rendered no more of a threat than the seasonal flu. I base my prediction on the following assumptions:

 

1) A vaccine won't be found until this winter at the earliest, will not be 100% effective, and will not be widely distributed until mid-2021 at the earliest. 

2) COVID-19 kills 0.6% of the people it infects. 

3) It's possible that up to half of Americans will get COVID-19 before the virus is tamed. 

[Raklian]

 

I predict that COVID-19 will kill between 400,000 and 1 million Americans by the time it is rendered no more of a threat than the seasonal flu. I base my prediction on the following assumptions:

 

1) A vaccine won't be found until this winter at the earliest, will not be 100% effective, and will not be widely distributed until mid-2021 at the earliest. 

2) COVID-19 kills 0.6% of the people it infects. 

3) It's possible that up to half of Americans will get COVID-19 before the virus is tamed. 

 

 

If we were to use the Spanish Flu as a reference which also had a very similar fatality-case ratio, at least 1.5 million Americans will die assuming 1/3 (110 million) of all Americans get infected while waiting for a vaccine that won't come until spring 2021. That's still optimistic given the extremely high virality of Covid-19.

 

I haven't even touched on the fact Covid-19 can reinfect. Also, I wonder about the implications if we get infected with Covid-19 and the seasonal flu nearly at the same time as the flu season comes into full swing. Once we fight off one of the viruses, our bodies are saturated with antibodies that only target the virus that it just fought off, leaving the gate wide open for a different virus to invade. It may be that younger people generally will do fine, but I'm not so sure about older people and those with underlying medical conditions.

[funkervogt]

 

Definitely at least 1 million worldwide. At least 250,000 for USA.

 

That's optimistic. The U-Washington model predicts 230,000 U.S. deaths by November 1. I see no chance a vaccine will be developed and disseminated fast enough to lower that estimate. 

 

At the current rate, U.S. deaths will hit 250,000 before December 1. 

 

Update: The U.S. just hit 200,000 deaths, so the Model is still on track for AT LEAST 230,000 deaths by November 1. 

 

It also now predicts there will be 300,000 U.S. deaths by December 10.