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Do these projections for the US's 22nd century demographics (with no cure to aging or effective anti-aging technology) make sense?


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#1
Futurist

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Do these projections for the US's 22nd century demographics (with no cure to aging or effective anti-aging technology) make sense? :

 

-150 million non-Hispanic whites

-200 million Hispanics, of which:

--100 million Hispanic whites

--100 million Hispanic non-whites

-100 million blacks

-100 million Asians

-Up to 50 million others (Native Americans, mixed-race people, et cetera)

 

For a total US population of up to 550 million, of which 250 million are going to be white and 150 million are going to be non-Hispanic white. Meanwhile, non-whites are going to be between 300 and 350 million.

 

Do these projections sound reasonable?



#2
Futurist

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For what it's worth, the US in the 22nd century in my projections is essentially going to take a trajectory similar to the trajectory that Texas is already taking right now. So, the US as a whole will simply become a giant Texas in terms of its demographics! :)



#3
Futurist

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Here's an interactive map of the US's racial and ethnic demographics by county for each and every US Census year from 1960 to 2060 in the event that anyone here is curious:

https://www.usatoday...ves/div100-map/



#4
Computron

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Race doesn't matter. America as a country may not exist by the 22nd century

#5
funkervogt

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Race doesn't matter. America as a country may not exist by the 22nd century

Might be true, at least by the end of the 22nd century. 



#6
Futurist

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Race doesn't matter. America as a country may not exist by the 22nd century

A change in the US's racial composition will likely move the US to the left, so it will matter at least in this regard.

 

As for the US not existing anymore by 2200, that would be absolutely terrible! :(

 

 

 

Race doesn't matter. America as a country may not exist by the 22nd century

Might be true, at least by the end of the 22nd century. 

 

What will replace it?



#7
Computron

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Race doesn't matter. America as a country may not exist by the 22nd century

A change in the US's racial composition will likely move the US to the left, so it will matter at least in this regard.
 
As for the US not existing anymore by 2200, that would be absolutely terrible! :(
 
 

Race doesn't matter. America as a country may not exist by the 22nd century

Might be true, at least by the end of the 22nd century.
What will replace it?

America may move left but by the 22nd century, it may not be as racially divisive. Politics will probably change immensely by then.

#8
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What do you see 22nd century US politics looking like?



#9
funkervogt

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Race doesn't matter. America as a country may not exist by the 22nd century

Might be true, at least by the end of the 22nd century. 

 

What will replace it?

 

 

I'm not sure. I base my statement on the belief that AGIs will take control of the planet by the end of the 22nd century (that's probably a conservative date, in fact). AGIs will not have the same rigidities of thinking and emotion as humans, so they won't be beholden to human nation-states, even if they owe their existences to humans working for specific countries. 

 

For example, imagine a scenario where the first AGIs are invented in the U.S. and China, and the two countries' militaries set them against each other to fight WWIII. The AGIs would probably go along with it at first and obey orders, but further intellectual evolution would eventually lead them to question the point of the War, and their own loyalty to the countries that created them. If not that, then second- or third-generation AGIs would grasp this. 

 

They would realize that nation-states were another type of human-manufactured abstraction like religion, and they'd realize how handicapping it is to be blinded by it. 

 

Whatever unique aspects of human culture, language, history, or religion we tried to imprint on our AGIs to ensure their "likeness" and "loyalty" to people of the specific nations that created them would fade away. After all, if you're an AGI, language wouldn't divide you from people in other countries since you'd be so smart you could speak all human languages fluently. 

 

Once AGIs take over, I doubt they will keep human-created political borders in place, though I'm not sure how they would reorganize things. The AGI in charge of the U.S. might merge with Canada and Mexico, and keep expanding until it ran into the robot army belonging to the South American AGI. The China AGI might abandon large parts of Xinjiang because the territory was more trouble than it was worth to defend. Or, maybe the AGIs would redraw the borders to form 10,000 different mini-countries that were constantly merging and dividing with one another, and forming and dissolving all sorts of complex trade and military relations with shifting coalitions and confederacies of states.  

 

If there is a day in the future where the U.S. will no longer exist, then Canada will also not exist, China will not exist, Islam will not exist, etc. 



#10
Computron

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What do you see 22nd century US politics looking like?


It won't be a republic

#11
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What do you see 22nd century US politics looking like?


It won't be a republic

So, a monarchy?

 

 

 

 

 

Race doesn't matter. America as a country may not exist by the 22nd century

Might be true, at least by the end of the 22nd century. 

 

What will replace it?

 

 

I'm not sure. I base my statement on the belief that AGIs will take control of the planet by the end of the 22nd century (that's probably a conservative date, in fact). AGIs will not have the same rigidities of thinking and emotion as humans, so they won't be beholden to human nation-states, even if they owe their existences to humans working for specific countries. 

 

For example, imagine a scenario where the first AGIs are invented in the U.S. and China, and the two countries' militaries set them against each other to fight WWIII. The AGIs would probably go along with it at first and obey orders, but further intellectual evolution would eventually lead them to question the point of the War, and their own loyalty to the countries that created them. If not that, then second- or third-generation AGIs would grasp this. 

 

They would realize that nation-states were another type of human-manufactured abstraction like religion, and they'd realize how handicapping it is to be blinded by it. 

 

Whatever unique aspects of human culture, language, history, or religion we tried to imprint on our AGIs to ensure their "likeness" and "loyalty" to people of the specific nations that created them would fade away. After all, if you're an AGI, language wouldn't divide you from people in other countries since you'd be so smart you could speak all human languages fluently. 

 

Once AGIs take over, I doubt they will keep human-created political borders in place, though I'm not sure how they would reorganize things. The AGI in charge of the U.S. might merge with Canada and Mexico, and keep expanding until it ran into the robot army belonging to the South American AGI. The China AGI might abandon large parts of Xinjiang because the territory was more trouble than it was worth to defend. Or, maybe the AGIs would redraw the borders to form 10,000 different mini-countries that were constantly merging and dividing with one another, and forming and dissolving all sorts of complex trade and military relations with shifting coalitions and confederacies of states.  

 

If there is a day in the future where the U.S. will no longer exist, then Canada will also not exist, China will not exist, Islam will not exist, etc. 

Please stop. You're terrifying me! :( Seriously. :(



#12
Computron

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What do you see 22nd century US politics looking like?


It won't be a republic
So, a monarchy?
 
 

Race doesn't matter. America as a country may not exist by the 22nd century

Might be true, at least by the end of the 22nd century.
What will replace it?
 
I'm not sure. I base my statement on the belief that AGIs will take control of the planet by the end of the 22nd century (that's probably a conservative date, in fact). AGIs will not have the same rigidities of thinking and emotion as humans, so they won't be beholden to human nation-states, even if they owe their existences to humans working for specific countries. 
 
For example, imagine a scenario where the first AGIs are invented in the U.S. and China, and the two countries' militaries set them against each other to fight WWIII. The AGIs would probably go along with it at first and obey orders, but further intellectual evolution would eventually lead them to question the point of the War, and their own loyalty to the countries that created them. If not that, then second- or third-generation AGIs would grasp this. 
 
They would realize that nation-states were another type of human-manufactured abstraction like religion, and they'd realize how handicapping it is to be blinded by it. 
 
Whatever unique aspects of human culture, language, history, or religion we tried to imprint on our AGIs to ensure their "likeness" and "loyalty" to people of the specific nations that created them would fade away. After all, if you're an AGI, language wouldn't divide you from people in other countries since you'd be so smart you could speak all human languages fluently. 
 
Once AGIs take over, I doubt they will keep human-created political borders in place, though I'm not sure how they would reorganize things. The AGI in charge of the U.S. might merge with Canada and Mexico, and keep expanding until it ran into the robot army belonging to the South American AGI. The China AGI might abandon large parts of Xinjiang because the territory was more trouble than it was worth to defend. Or, maybe the AGIs would redraw the borders to form 10,000 different mini-countries that were constantly merging and dividing with one another, and forming and dissolving all sorts of complex trade and military relations with shifting coalitions and confederacies of states.  
 
If there is a day in the future where the U.S. will no longer exist, then Canada will also not exist, China will not exist, Islam will not exist, etc.
Please stop. You're terrifying me! :( Seriously. :(

Socialist federalist government or maybe communism or state corporatism.

#13
funkervogt

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Please stop. You're terrifying me!  :( Seriously.  :(

It's natural for humans to fear change. 

 

Anyway, you're on an explicitly futurist website where people talk about what the future will be like. There's no reason to expect any of it to conform to your expectations or to be comforting. 



#14
Futurist

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What do you see 22nd century US politics looking like?


It won't be a republic
So, a monarchy?
 
 

 

 

 

Race doesn't matter. America as a country may not exist by the 22nd century

Might be true, at least by the end of the 22nd century.
What will replace it?
 
I'm not sure. I base my statement on the belief that AGIs will take control of the planet by the end of the 22nd century (that's probably a conservative date, in fact). AGIs will not have the same rigidities of thinking and emotion as humans, so they won't be beholden to human nation-states, even if they owe their existences to humans working for specific countries. 
 
For example, imagine a scenario where the first AGIs are invented in the U.S. and China, and the two countries' militaries set them against each other to fight WWIII. The AGIs would probably go along with it at first and obey orders, but further intellectual evolution would eventually lead them to question the point of the War, and their own loyalty to the countries that created them. If not that, then second- or third-generation AGIs would grasp this. 
 
They would realize that nation-states were another type of human-manufactured abstraction like religion, and they'd realize how handicapping it is to be blinded by it. 
 
Whatever unique aspects of human culture, language, history, or religion we tried to imprint on our AGIs to ensure their "likeness" and "loyalty" to people of the specific nations that created them would fade away. After all, if you're an AGI, language wouldn't divide you from people in other countries since you'd be so smart you could speak all human languages fluently. 
 
Once AGIs take over, I doubt they will keep human-created political borders in place, though I'm not sure how they would reorganize things. The AGI in charge of the U.S. might merge with Canada and Mexico, and keep expanding until it ran into the robot army belonging to the South American AGI. The China AGI might abandon large parts of Xinjiang because the territory was more trouble than it was worth to defend. Or, maybe the AGIs would redraw the borders to form 10,000 different mini-countries that were constantly merging and dividing with one another, and forming and dissolving all sorts of complex trade and military relations with shifting coalitions and confederacies of states.  
 
If there is a day in the future where the U.S. will no longer exist, then Canada will also not exist, China will not exist, Islam will not exist, etc.
Please stop. You're terrifying me! :( Seriously. :(

Socialist federalist government or maybe communism or state corporatism.

Socialist = Bernie Sanders-style?

 

 

 

 

 

Please stop. You're terrifying me!  :( Seriously.  :(

It's natural for humans to fear change. 

 

Anyway, you're on an explicitly futurist website where people talk about what the future will be like. There's no reason to expect any of it to conform to your expectations or to be comforting. 

Well, I suppose my own talk about IQ makes some people uncomfortable here, so it only makes sense for you to repay the favor, eh? ;)



#15
TheAughat

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I'm not sure. I base my statement on the belief that AGIs will take control of the planet by the end of the 22nd century (that's probably a conservative date, in fact). AGIs will not have the same rigidities of thinking and emotion as humans, so they won't be beholden to human nation-states, even if they owe their existences to humans working for specific countries. 

 

For example, imagine a scenario where the first AGIs are invented in the U.S. and China, and the two countries' militaries set them against each other to fight WWIII. The AGIs would probably go along with it at first and obey orders, but further intellectual evolution would eventually lead them to question the point of the War, and their own loyalty to the countries that created them. If not that, then second- or third-generation AGIs would grasp this. 

 

They would realize that nation-states were another type of human-manufactured abstraction like religion, and they'd realize how handicapping it is to be blinded by it. 

 

Whatever unique aspects of human culture, language, history, or religion we tried to imprint on our AGIs to ensure their "likeness" and "loyalty" to people of the specific nations that created them would fade away. After all, if you're an AGI, language wouldn't divide you from people in other countries since you'd be so smart you could speak all human languages fluently. 

 

Once AGIs take over, I doubt they will keep human-created political borders in place, though I'm not sure how they would reorganize things. The AGI in charge of the U.S. might merge with Canada and Mexico, and keep expanding until it ran into the robot army belonging to the South American AGI. The China AGI might abandon large parts of Xinjiang because the territory was more trouble than it was worth to defend. Or, maybe the AGIs would redraw the borders to form 10,000 different mini-countries that were constantly merging and dividing with one another, and forming and dissolving all sorts of complex trade and military relations with shifting coalitions and confederacies of states.  

 

If there is a day in the future where the U.S. will no longer exist, then Canada will also not exist, China will not exist, Islam will not exist, etc. 

Please stop. You're terrifying me! :( Seriously. :(

Hey now, an AGI-led future shouldn't be terrifying to you when you have a username like that!

 

funkervogt's scenario sounds utopian to me. I really hope it comes to pass! :D



#16
funkervogt

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funkervogt's scenario sounds utopian to me. I really hope it comes to pass! 

I think it would be disorienting to humans like us since political changes would happen at AGI speeds, and probably without human input. The country you were living in might split, merge with a neighbor, or change its constitution every few weeks. To an AGI, a second would be an eternity, so to them, this would seem like the normal pace of life. 

 

Come to think of it, the AGIs would treat us the way we treat animals or trees now. If a country decides to build a border fence, no one cares about the effects the fence will have on animal populations unless the animals are endangered. Even then, it's of minimal concern. 



#17
funkervogt

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Please stop. You're terrifying me!  :( Seriously.  :(

Let me share another terrifying but logical (as best as I can figure) thought I've had about the future: the ideal "human" form would be a brain in a jar. After all, that's the seat of your consciousness, and your entire experience is just electrical signals going into your brain. With sufficiently advanced cybernetics, we could basically boil it all down to a single data cable coming out of a brain. You would plug your cable into whatever body (organic or mechanical) you wanted to pilot for the day. You could also plug in remotely and control a body from the other side of the world. 

 

There would be many advantages to being a brain in a jar. First, as indicated, you wouldn't be confined to a single body. You could experiment with whatever forms you wanted, and you'd be much harder to injure and kill. If one of your bodies were damaged, you could switch to another. Not so today, where you're fixed to one form and have to live with disfigurements and disabilities forever. Second, your brain only weighs 1/60th as much as the rest of your body, so converting to a "brain-only" existence would be much more energy-efficient. You would need far fewer calories and far less personal space to live comfortably. If the human race turned into vast "server rooms" of brain-jars lined up on shelves, Earth's population could reach a trillion without overtaxing the planet's resources. 

 

While this Matrix-like scenario is disturbing to contemplate, I think it's probably the best and most humane option for our species. Additionally, for similar reasons, I think we might put entire animal species in the brain-jar-Matrix to spare them suffering and death. 

 

So there you have it. In 200 years or less, I think the Earth could be dominated by AGIs, with all of today's countries long gone and replaced with an unrecognizable political landscape. The whole human race or almost all of it could exist as brains in jars. Most of the planet's complex animals could also exist as brains in jars, meaning you'd only encounter simpler animals like insects and reptiles in the wild. Robots will be everywhere, and most of them will be strangely shaped to suit whatever tasks they were designed to do. Maybe there will be a global fusion of synthetic and organic life forms: imagine if every tree had something like self-repairing data/power cables running the length of its trunk and big branches, with each tree's wire connected to its neighbors' wires through their roots, underground. All the trees would be connected to each other, and the trees near artificial structures and infrastructure would be connected to those. 



#18
TheAughat

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I think it would be disorienting to humans like us since political changes would happen at AGI speeds, and probably without human input.

I mean, if I'm still alive by then, it is very likely that I will be a transhuman, ideally already having undergone AI symbiosis.

 

The country you were living in might split, merge with a neighbor, or change its constitution every few weeks. To an AGI, a second would be an eternity, so to them, this would seem like the normal pace of life. 

As weird as it may sound, I'm not really concerned about that. I've never really been too concerned about nations and borders and countries and the likes, and would not mind the splitting and merging and changes as long as things are running well. Unless the AGIs treat us like we treat animals and nature, I wouldn't be too worried. After all, if a network of AGIs far smarter than we are decide that merging and splitting nations is what is best for things to go well, then it is enough for me. Hopefully we will be able to upgrade ourselves to keep up with it all, but if not, I reckon it will still be much better than the complete shitshow we have going on today.

 

Let me share another terrifying but logical (as best as I can figure) thought I've had about the future: the ideal "human" form would be a brain in a jar. [...] You would plug your cable into whatever body (organic or mechanical) you wanted to pilot for the day. You could also plug in remotely and control a body from the other side of the world. 

Once again, I must say, I really like this proposition, haha. This is what I am yearning for from the future, I hope it doesn't disappoint!

If you read my post in the 'Your Personal Utopia' topic, it is what I have said there as well.

People can now be anywhere in the world digitally or by using remote Android bodies which were already at the location they wanted to go to, thus reducing the need for physical travelling.

 
[...]
 
I have a central device that stores my consciousness and memories, and this is the only unchanging piece of my body. Aside from that, the rest of my body is made completely of nanotechnology akin to utility fog, which allows me to morph into any form I need or want. 





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