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Donald Trump 2024?


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#1
Futurist

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If Donald Trump loses reelection this year, could he make a political comeback in 2024 similar to what Grover Cleveland successfully managed to do in 1892--especially if Joe Biden's Presidency will be(come) a disappointment?



#2
MarcZ

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Doubt it.



#3
PhoenixRu

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Trump - no.

 

But someone younger with roughly the same agenda - why not? By 2024 Biden will long become the political (if not literal) corpse, so everything is possible.



#4
Yuli Ban

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Trump - no.

 

But someone younger with roughly the same agenda - why not? By 2024 Biden will long become the political (if not literal) corpse, so everything is possible.

This, absolutely. 

 

2024 could be a bloodbath between a center-leftist insurgency (as progressives and socialists are plotting a grassroots campaign to redo what Republicans and conservatives tried in the '70s and '80s through the present), the Democrats, and the Republicans bolstered by the inevitable numb chaos of a Biden presidency (though again, we still don't know who the president will be at this exact moment— if Trump pulls through, expect more of the same demoralizing chaos until he croaks or 2024). If the GOP exploits that chaos (and you know they will even if there isn't chaos), builds off their current meager momentum with non-whites, and actually starts accepting the reality of how imminent automation is, they may be able to front some charismatic 40-something or 50-something who isn't the bumbling brat Trump is and win in an overwhelming landslide.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#5
Zaphod

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 I can see the Republicans trying to promote someone similar to Trump in terms of his energy, lying, conspiracy theorising and outspokenness - as they know this works. The Jeb Bush/Mitt Romney/John Mccain's of the world are no more. I hate to sound bleak, but the Trump/Republican cult and chaos it has brought seems irreversible to me now. 



#6
wjfox

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 I can see the Republicans trying to promote someone similar to Trump in terms of his energy, lying, conspiracy theorising and outspokenness - as they know this works. The Jeb Bush/Mitt Romney/John Mccain's of the world are no more. I hate to sound bleak, but the Trump/Republican cult and chaos it has brought seems irreversible to me now. 

 

 

Agreed totally.

 

The world's changed, in large part due to social media and other technology. A huge chunk of the population now seems to live in their own alternate reality – in which facts don't matter anymore, it's all based on feelings and emotions.

 

And under the two-party system, the U.S. congress is becoming more and more partisan over time. There may come a point where America is so hyper-partisan, a dangerous tipping point is reached, and 2020 could look tame by comparison. I jokingly call this the Stupidity Singularity, but you have to wonder where all this is leading to.

 

https://journals.plo...al.pone.0123507

 

 

usa-partisan.jpg



#7
wjfox

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Do we need another thread, btw? We already have one for 2024. Can I suggest we merge these threads?



#8
Maximus

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If Trump loses now, and that's still a big if, I don't expect he will run again in 2024. I do expect a majority of Republicans will continue to support the autocratic/conspiracy theory current dominating the party right now, so a younger Trump lookalike would probably be the most realistic candidate.Trump himself will probably be regarded as damaged goods by the Republican party if he loses, so unless he founds his own party (which is not out of the question), I don't see him returning to politics. It's far more likely that he just becomes a mainstream Alex Jones (which he pretty much already is) on Fox, or his own network. The silver lining of him founding his own party would be that Democrats would be guaranteed to sweep at least one election. After that though, who knows what ripple effects that would have on US politics. The Republican party could actually die off and be replaced by QAnon and Trump (or Trump's successor), and then you would have the mother of all nightmare political parties. 



#9
joe00uk

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Yeah, I don't think Trump will run again in 2024, despite what some are claiming, but he won't retire completely from politics either. I agree with what a few others here have said - he'll probably continue to have some involvement in politics from the sidelines through his own media channels, or at least alternative media channels which will give him a platform. Although, there's every chance a Biden-Harris administration will try to prosecute him. I think they'll most likely end up putting at least a few of those who helped Trump come to power in 2016 behind bars, but I'm less sure that they'd be successful with Trump himself.

I don't think Biden will run in 2024 either, because he'll likely have been incapacitated for quite a while before then. I don't think Biden will last beyond 2022. President Kamala Harris will probably be the one to take on the Republican challenger in 2024. The Republicans will probably try to find someone who's like a younger version of Trump - again, like a few others here have said - but I don't think they're necessarily going to be that successful. They'll probably find some middle-aged MAGA-type, but by 2024, MAGA politics will be irrelevant. They'll try and recreate 2016 but what they'll fail to have realised is that 2016 isn't coming back. 2024 will have brought new realities which take the deterioration of the US to new levels.

I think President Harris will win election in 2024, but already now what we're seeing with the 2020 election is a Great Schism in which two Americas recognise two different Presidents. Trump's support base is now declaring this election illegitimate and Biden's support base doesn't believe the Democrats even have any responsibility to disprove those claims. This is probably going to mean extremely low turnout among conservative Whites in 2024 and from then on, that demographic will probably disengage from electoral politics to an extent not seen before and new dissident movements are likely to gain traction. That could possibly come in the form of a new 'QAnon' party as Maximus said, but again, that will be outdated 2016-20 energy, so it will have to be something more updated for the mid-2020s. Anything successful will start out as relatively decentralised, community-based politics which will grow from there rather than pinning all hopes on the sudden emergence of a third party to contest the Presidency. The revenge the Democrats will probably at least try to pursue against their opponents (spurred on by a failure to take the Senate and how close 2020's election was, as well as a determination never to let 2016 happen ever again) will only serve to further alienate Trump's support base and probably a lot of people who have no strong allegiances as well. I've said rather controversially in other threads that armed militant groups will also probably become a regular feature of American political life in the 2020s, more likely in the second half of the decade, and there may well be persistent low-level violence.

We saw particularly under Obama's second term that mainstream Democrats will never be radical or progressive enough to satisfy those to the left of them. Particular movements which backed Biden against Trump in 2020's election might not recall this immediately, and for a few years, they might stay somewhat hopeful and work to put pressure on the Biden-Harris administration. Whatever the Biden-Harris administration does, too much of it either won't be enough, or will create more problems than it solves even for those their efforts are meant to support. In any case, the Democrats will be unable (and mostly unwilling) to reverse America's decline and the worsening of conditions there. Groups to the left of the Democrats will undergo splits as factions which want to break off from them start to pursue their own more radical agendas in conflict with the more pro-establishment leadership. You might see, for example, an 'Official BLM' which continues to support the Democrats and a 'Provisional BLM' which is more radical and revolutionary.

The chances are that the Democrats will win far more elections from now on than they lose, but they'll only be representing half of America (at most) when they do - and that proportion will decline each election cycle. Probably by the mid 2030s, the focus of politics will be less on which establishment party wins the General Election, and more about the conflicts between the budding alternative structures of governance which fight to replace the old Washington regime.



#10
wjfox

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Jlfttqk.jpg



#11
SeedNotYetSprouted

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A Tucker Carlson presidency would be fun.

 

Insidious and sinister, but fun from a content perspective



#12
Outlook

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 I can see the Republicans trying to promote someone similar to Trump in terms of his energy, lying, conspiracy theorising and outspokenness - as they know this works. The Jeb Bush/Mitt Romney/John Mccain's of the world are no more. I hate to sound bleak, but the Trump/Republican cult and chaos it has brought seems irreversible to me now. 

 

 

Agreed totally.

 

The world's changed, in large part due to social media and other technology. A huge chunk of the population now seems to live in their own alternate reality – in which facts don't matter anymore, it's all based on feelings and emotions.

 

And under the two-party system, the U.S. congress is becoming more and more partisan over time. There may come a point where America is so hyper-partisan, a dangerous tipping point is reached, and 2020 could look tame by comparison. I jokingly call this the Stupidity Singularity, but you have to wonder where all this is leading to.

 

https://journals.plo...al.pone.0123507

 

 

usa-partisan.jpg

 

>1981

>1983

giphy.gif


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#13
Futurist

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Doubt it.

Why not? I mean, Trump has a huge ego and his loss (in terms of the necessary % of the vote that would have been necessary to flip in order for him to win reelection in 2020) wasn't any worse than Grover Cleveland's loss in 1888 was. As you know, Grover Cleveland made a successful comeback in 1892.



#14
Futurist

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 I can see the Republicans trying to promote someone similar to Trump in terms of his energy, lying, conspiracy theorising and outspokenness - as they know this works. The Jeb Bush/Mitt Romney/John Mccain's of the world are no more. I hate to sound bleak, but the Trump/Republican cult and chaos it has brought seems irreversible to me now. 

 

 

Agreed totally.

 

The world's changed, in large part due to social media and other technology. A huge chunk of the population now seems to live in their own alternate reality – in which facts don't matter anymore, it's all based on feelings and emotions.

 

And under the two-party system, the U.S. congress is becoming more and more partisan over time. There may come a point where America is so hyper-partisan, a dangerous tipping point is reached, and 2020 could look tame by comparison. I jokingly call this the Stupidity Singularity, but you have to wonder where all this is leading to.

 

https://journals.plo...al.pone.0123507

 

 

usa-partisan.jpg

 

>1981

>1983

giphy.gif

The Ronnie Raygun effect!



#15
Futurist

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Do we need another thread, btw? We already have one for 2024. Can I suggest we merge these threads?

Should we? Anyway, I'll leave the final decision to you.



#16
Futurist

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I think that you're underestimating Trump's ability to keep going. In 2024, Trump will be 78--just like Joe Biden will be in just a single month!



#17
Futurist

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If Trump loses now, and that's still a big if, I don't expect he will run again in 2024. I do expect a majority of Republicans will continue to support the autocratic/conspiracy theory current dominating the party right now, so a younger Trump lookalike would probably be the most realistic candidate.Trump himself will probably be regarded as damaged goods by the Republican party if he loses, so unless he founds his own party (which is not out of the question), I don't see him returning to politics. It's far more likely that he just becomes a mainstream Alex Jones (which he pretty much already is) on Fox, or his own network. The silver lining of him founding his own party would be that Democrats would be guaranteed to sweep at least one election. After that though, who knows what ripple effects that would have on US politics. The Republican party could actually die off and be replaced by QAnon and Trump (or Trump's successor), and then you would have the mother of all nightmare political parties. 

Grover Cleveland wasn't regarded as damaged goods after his 1888 loss, for what it's worth.



#18
kjaggard

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I don't forsee the republican party wanting to carry this fool anymore. they never expected that they would have to field this mess of a man-baby, but they took their guy and used him as much as they could. Next round out, I could see a Pence, run and succeed. But it really can't just be a trump look alike or sound alike. They trump fanatics are wound into a cult of personality. Trying to give them a knock off would backfire. You need a person who was in trumps corner and who was with him the whole way. You could maybe see a trump family member run, but again that's likely not the person the GOP wants to field.


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#19
Raklian

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He can try running for 2024... only if he manages to stay out of jail. 


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#20
Futurist

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I don't forsee the republican party wanting to carry this fool anymore. they never expected that they would have to field this mess of a man-baby, but they took their guy and used him as much as they could. Next round out, I could see a Pence, run and succeed. But it really can't just be a trump look alike or sound alike. They trump fanatics are wound into a cult of personality. Trying to give them a knock off would backfire. You need a person who was in trumps corner and who was with him the whole way. You could maybe see a trump family member run, but again that's likely not the person the GOP wants to field.

So, why not give them the real thing for the third time in a row?

 

He can try running for 2024... only if he manages to stay out of jail. 

Yep.






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