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If Ukraine will ever attempt to reconquer the Donbass by force and Russia will militarily intervene, how far deep inside of Ukraine will Russia go?


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#1
Futurist

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If Ukraine will ever attempt to reconquer the Donbass by force and Russia will militarily intervene, how far deep inside of Ukraine will Russia go? As in, where exactly is Russia going to draw the new borders of the separatist republics in the Donbass in such a scenario? Also, might Russia attempt to create additional separatist republics in such a scenario, such as in Kharkiv and/or Zaporizhia?



#2
Futurist

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@PhoenixRu: Thoughts on this?



#3
Maximus

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how far deep inside of Ukraine will Russia go?

All the way in, balls deep baby.



#4
funkervogt

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Russia could take over everything east of the Dnieper river. Going farther than that would put major strains on their military and economy. 



#5
Futurist

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Russia could take over everything east of the Dnieper river. Going farther than that would put major strains on their military and economy. 

So, no Odessa?

 

 

 

 

how far deep inside of Ukraine will Russia go?

All the way in, balls deep baby.

But it would encounter a lot of Ukrainian resistance in such a scenario, no?



#6
Maximus

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how far deep inside of Ukraine will Russia go?

All the way in, balls deep baby.

But it would encounter a lot of Ukrainian resistance in such a scenario, no?

Russia took Crimea with a few unmarked foot soldiers. If we're talking about a full-out invasion of Ukraine, as in Russia itself and not its Ukrainian proxies, it would be over within a week.

 

The only real question is what NATO and the EU would do in this situation. Ever since the excess of the Bush era, the US turned its gaze inward. Obama did nothing when Russia crossed his "red-line" in Syria, and he did nothing when Russia took Crimea. Trump's focus has been almost exclusively on America; he hasn't had any real coherent foreign policy aside from China. Will Biden mark a shift in foreign policy for the US? Time will tell, but this mentality in the US of looking inward, and "making America great again" speaks to me of a declining power. The message has been largely the same since Obama took power; "forget the world out there, we need to focus on ourselves". Trump was much more isolationist, but generally they were both more focused on internal US policy than foreign policy. The factors that caused this shift inward, and caused people to turn to populism are still there; Iraq fatigue, loss of jobs in Rust Belt states, loss of trust in the establishment after the GFC. I would say the US is done intervening in other people's wars; right now, they're fighting an internal cold war for what America should be.

 

NATO without the US is hamstrung, and the EU, despite working on a common military force, is nowhere close to that goal yet. I think Ukraine would be on its own. Russia would risk heavy economic sanctions, but that's about it. But then again why would Russia do this? They maintain Ukraine is a failed, corrupt, and bankrupt state. Why risk hundreds or thousands of Russian men to take this piece of land, which in the end would only end up costing Russia to be rebuild. Why integrate a state full of people who hate you? Far better to leave them alone. Of course not all of this applies to Eastern Ukraine, where a large part of the population is Russian. It would be more conceivable for Russia to seize the Eastern part, and leave Western Ukraine.

 

Edit: I forgot what the premise of this thread was; I was assuming Russia is the aggressor here. If Ukraine was the aggressor, then obviously Russia would respond by seizing Eastern Ukraine, at the very least.



#7
Kynareth

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If Ukraine attacked Russians, Russia would take half of Ukraine. It would be a great pretence for Putin to annex eastern Ukraine. "Military operation to defend Russians living in Ukraine". I don't believe that Russia will ever attack European Union though -  that would lead to a too large of a conflict.






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