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China is always just about to invade Taiwan

china taiwan invade annex take over

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#1
funkervogt

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This thread is for predictions that China will invade Taiwan by YEAR X. I've been hearing "experts" predict this since I was a kid, and it never seems to happen. 

 

From 2018: 

 

 

Does Beijing have a timetable for seizing control of Taiwan? This has been a hot topic for the media and among experts on cross-strait relations. I believe such a timetable exists. If the timeline was rather vague in the past, it has become clearer now. And the US security strategy that President Donald Trump recently unveiled will hasten the pace of Beijing’s plan to take back the island, probably in 2020.

https://www.scmp.com...iwan-force-2020

 

 



#2
funkervogt

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From 2019: 

 

 

A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045.

 
The comments by retired Lt. Gen. Kunio Orita, a 35-year veteran of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force and a former commander of the 301st Tactical Fighter Squadron and 6th Air Wing, appeared last month in the English-language Taiwan News.
 
Orita, who retired in 2009 and is now a guest professor at Toyo Gakuen University in Tokyo, recently told Stars and Stripes he expects Beijing will attempt to expand its sphere of influence by first taking control of Taiwan and then militarizing a key disputed islet in the South China Sea.

https://www.stripes....y-2045-1.569228



#3
Revolutionary Moderate

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I think the most probable time for the invasion will be in 2049, as it will be the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.


The Potato Praiser 


#4
Set and Meet Goals

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I think the most probable time for the invasion will be in 2049, as it will be the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.


Adding to what revolutionary moderate said. China has actually planned to be reunified with Taiwan by then so it will happen when they think they can take it easily sometime before that date

#5
Maximus

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I don't think they will ever invade. Pro-Chinese elements and parties in the Taiwanese government will simply grow more influential as China overtakes the US as the world's biggest economy and regional power. There won't be a need for a risky and violent conquest, it will just slowly become a Chinese ally.



#6
eacao

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imho taiwan will suffer intense statecraft but not invasion. "It was blockaded when the war began" is what historians will someday say


If you're going through hell, keep going. - Winston Churchill

Opportunity lurks where responsibility has been abdicated - Jordan Peterson
Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power. - Abraham Lincoln.


#7
TranscendingGod

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As semiconductors grow in importance Taiwan will grow in importance. Chips are the new oil and Taiwan is Saudi Arabia. Except that the states targeting Saudi Arabia were borderline failed states not a power rivaling the current hegemon. 


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth.

#8
Erowind

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If it ever happens it likely won't be until after Pax Americana abandons the Asia Pacific which might be in our lifetimes and it might not. If it takes 50-100 more years before American influence wanes enough it's possible China might not even care anymore. This is assuming the resource wars never start, in which case I have no idea what will happen.

 

Also, like the Rocket Man, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Syria and many others this is nothing more than a media cycle. Covid is starting to get boring enough that Sinclair Broadcasting is rotating through their usual bag of sensational topics. That doesn't mean there isn't realpolitiking happening, but it's important to understand that most people only care because their senses are flooded with constant media coverage that largely doesn't add anything of value to the situation or try to build any movements to provide solutions to the world's problems.

 

When: American sees patriotic corporate sensationalism, expected desired response = view media so company gets paid, and, display patriotic fervor.

 



#9
funkervogt

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From 2020:

 

 

Another big difference between Mao and Xi has to do with foreign relations. Once the Cultural Revolution kicked into high gear, China was so preoccupied with its own internal affairs that it presented little threat to the outside world. Xi, by contrast, has set an ambitious external agenda for the CCP. It aims to shift the center of the world economy to Eurasia through the Belt and Road Initiative, away from the current trans-oceanic one centered on the United States. It has for the first time staked out expansionist territorial claims through its creation and militarization of islands within the “Nine-Dashed Line” in the South China Sea. Xi has stated very clearly his intention to re-absorb Taiwan within the decade, if necessary by the use of force. And, in sharp contrast to the period before 2012, he has touted the “China model” as one that is available for export.

https://www.the-amer...oes-china-have/



#10
Yuli Ban

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Oh you think that's crazy?

  • 1990 The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
  • 1996 The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing
  • 1998 The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
  • 1999 Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
  • 2000 Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
  • 2001 Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
  • 2002 Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
  • 2003 New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
  • 2004 The Economist: The great fall of China?
  • 2005 Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
  • 2006 International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
  • 2007 TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
  • 2008 Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
  • 2009 Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
  • 2010 Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
  • 2011 Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
  • 2012 American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
  • 2013 Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
  • 2014 CNBC: A hard landing in China.
  • 2015 Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
  • 2016 The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
  • 2017 National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#11
Kynareth

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Every year a hard landing?



#12
Raklian

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Every year a hard landing?

 

There is always a hard landing for someone in any country at any time.


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#13
lechwall

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Unless Taiwan openly pushes for independence I can't see China invading the amount of blowback they'd get isn't worth the risk.


"The future will be better tomorrow.  If we do not succeed, then we run the risk of failure.   For NASA, space is still a high priority. The Holocaust was an obscene period in our nation's history. No, not our nation's, but in World War II. I mean, we all lived in this century. I didn't live in this century, but in this century's history. Republicans understand the importance of bondage between a mother and child. We're going to have the best-educated American people in the world."  Dan Quayle

 


#14
funkervogt

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Unless Taiwan openly pushes for independence I can't see China invading the amount of blowback they'd get isn't worth the risk.

Exactly. 

 

Spy satellites also prevent them from concealing a D-Day style amphibious force buildup that would have to precede any cross-channel invasion. 







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