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Will 3D Really Succeed?

3D television high definition movies

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#1
goldenwolf1916

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The future timeline site, says that 3D will succseed by 2013. So far its prediction of glasses free 3D channels in 2010 have been wrong, and the sales of 3D TV's and movies have been stagnating as audiances have been tiring of the gimmiick. So my question is, will 3D really succseed or isit doomed to fail (for the 3rd time)?

#2
jjf3

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The future timeline site, says that 3D will succseed by 2013. So far its prediction of glasses free 3D channels in 2010 have been wrong, and the sales of 3D TV's and movies have been stagnating as audiances have been tiring of the gimmiick. So my question is, will 3D really succseed or isit doomed to fail (for the 3rd time)?


I believe that 3D won't be seen as a failure. It will be seen as a push in the direction of holographic tech and augmented reality. So when 3D becomes primitive tech, the industry will say it was a necessary step for say, the holodeck. I believe it is a gimmick now but a necessary gimmick. Just like tablets are a necessary gimmick for whatever comes next.
"Did you really expect some utopian fantasy to rise from the ashes?" Thomas Zarek-- Battlestar Galactica.

#3
Dead Redshirt

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It's hard to say, really. 3D has come and gone many times before because it had nothing to give it staying power. Have to say though that Avatar, despite what people may think about the movie itself, pushed things in the right direction. The problem are the movies that are converted to 3D and not filmed in 3D. I think those only serve to give people a bad experience and dilute the potential of what 3D can do in the long-term. As far as the technology goes, I dunno. There are so many factors in play. The sale of 3DTVs or the lack of seem to suggest that people don't want it, plus the adoption by the broadcasters. We have one broadcaster in Canada which initially said they were committed to broadcasting sports in 3D, but pulled back on that when they realized that there just wasn't a big enough market and that it was just too expensive to produce and broadcast. Not quite sure that we're there quite yet, to be honest. There are very few movies that really take advantage of the technology well enough to make it worth it, and not just as a gimmick with things looking like they're coming out the screen. As a theatrical experience, sure, it's awesome and unique and it gives an opportunity for movie theatres to put more people in their seats, but as a home experience? It's likely to dilute the advantage that the theatre has.
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world. - Jack Layton - 1950 - 2011

#4
jjf3

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And lets not forget that you need somewhat good eyesight to view 3DTV. If you have certain eye problems forget it you won't be able to see it.
"Did you really expect some utopian fantasy to rise from the ashes?" Thomas Zarek-- Battlestar Galactica.

#5
wjfox

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So far its prediction of glasses free 3D channels in 2010 have been wrong

Oh, really?

http://www.bbc.co.uk...nology-11467352

4 October 2010

"Toshiba has launched what it claims are the first 3D television sets that do not require special glasses.

Last week, Sky launched Europe's first dedicated 3D television channel, whilst Virgin has launched a 3D movie channel."

#6
Craven

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Last year delivered great damage to future of 3D. Bad convertions, forcing people to pay more for flat or crappy, looking like cut-out conversions, invasive 3D, lack of 2D option in many cities... It all created lot of hate towards 3D. 3D movies should be shot in 3D, with help of stereographer, not only director of photography. They shouldn't charge that much (well, generally ticket prices are ridiculous). Also glasses are and will be a problem, so technology that gets rid of them would be great.
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#7
Dead Redshirt

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Last year delivered great damage to future of 3D. Bad convertions, forcing people to pay more for flat or crappy, looking like cut-out conversions, invasive 3D, lack of 2D option in many cities... It all created lot of hate towards 3D.

3D movies should be shot in 3D, with help of stereographer, not only director of photography. They shouldn't charge that much (well, generally ticket prices are ridiculous). Also glasses are and will be a problem, so technology that gets rid of them would be great.



Yep, well said. I was actually going to go see Thor with a friend of mine a few weeks ago, but we decided to pass on it when we realized the only showing was in 3D. Seeing as we only have one multiplex in this city, with a cheap theatre having second run movies, there wasn't any choice to go anywhere else, and even if I could, most of the theatres airing first runs in Canada are all owned by one company, with only a few of the bigger cities having actual choice. And just recently our cheap theatre bought a 3D projector, which means they'll likely be pushing it all they can as well and give people less of a choice to make up for the price they paid for that dang projector.
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world. - Jack Layton - 1950 - 2011

#8
Azureous

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Thor is actually alright for a 3D, especially that last scene when you fly through the nebula clouds http://www.futuretim...tyle_emoticons/animate/shock.gif was an amazing experience for me.
I think people have just come to expect too much from 3D, avatar worked well because the director had 3d in mind when he created the movie. 3D effects aren't always apparent in a movie, mainly when objects jump out of a screen, but James Cameron was able to bring that out a lot.
To get photo-realism, 3d is only one factor, you also need about 300dpi resolution for 1m viewing distance. For a 23 inch 1080p display we have about 96dpi, as you can see we're still got a long way to go. We would need to triple our pixel density, estimates are at 2020 for UltraHD-TV
http://youtu.be/qAcd...h4?hd=1&t=3m58s <---- UltraHD-TV from sharp

With respect to glass free 3d, a new parallax barrier technology has been made that allows 3d to be viewed from all angles.
http://web.mit.edu/n...ee-3d-0504.html

I'm not sure there is gonna be that much of a demand for holograms, glass free 3d tv panels can be made so thin it can just be placed almost anywhere. Current hologram technology do not show much potential for improvement either.

#9
CamGoldenGun

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3D is a fad that keeps coming back due to breakthrough in new technology. It'll go away again and re-emerge when it's closer to a holographic 3D that we see in things like star trek or star wars.

#10
Craven

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Volumetric display is whole other concept.
"I walk alone and do no evil, having only a few wishes, just like an elephant in the forest."

"Laugh, and the world laughs with you. Weep, and you weep alone."

#11
Caiman

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3D is a fad that keeps coming back due to breakthrough in new technology.

It does seem different in the current iteration though, there appears to be a lot more time, effort and money being invested into the technology and it’s certainly more ‘mainstream’ than ever now, with large broadcast companies introducing high profile programming in 3D or electronics companies putting out multiple lines of TV sets that support it. I agree it still remains a bit of a gimmick, but I am undecided right now on whether it is here to stay or not...

Personally, 3D gives me a headache and makes me feel dizzy so I am happy to stay off this wagon for now.

~Jon


#12
Dead Redshirt

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It does seem different in the current iteration though, there appears to be a lot more time, effort and money being invested into the technology



It does, doesn't it? I think what sets this generation apart is the fact that it can actually be 3D in terms of depth of field rather than gimmicks with things jumping out of the screen like previous generations. Previous generations have tried depth of field, but have always come across as pop-up layers instead. This generation seems a lot more mature.
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world. - Jack Layton - 1950 - 2011

#13
Azureous

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problem is when you're looking at distant objects, they're not very much '3d' are they?

#14
Shimmy

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I'm guessing in the future it shouldn't be too hard to just be able to take your eyes out and have them transmit the information back to you via whatever convenient EM waves. Then you can just put your eyes in a little "television box" and sit back and enjoy, lot easier and more space efficient. Some people may argue a similar thing could just be done by wearing a special pair of glasses, but this would involve the additional effort of having to keep your eyelids open whilst watching a film which I personally hate. Also glasses can feel annoying against your skin, plus there's also the added benefit where the box can clean your eyes whilst your watching, mine are always getting filthy.

#15
Mentat

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A friend spent thousands of dollars on a 3D TV, 3D glasses, a Sony PS3, games and movies just to have the 3D experience. So we sat there on the couch looking like Buddy Holly impersonators watching our first 3D movie. After about 30 minutes he said, "Do you want to take these glasses off now?" "Yeah," I said. That pretty much sums up my views of 3D entertainment.
"You lot. You spend all your time thinking about dying, like you're going to get killed by eggs, or beef, or global warming, or asteroids. But you never take time to imagine the impossible: that maybe you survive." - Doctor Who, "The End of the World"

#16
psychonaut25

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A friend spent thousands of dollars on a 3D TV, 3D glasses, a Sony PS3, games and movies just to have the 3D experience. So we sat there on the couch looking like Buddy Holly impersonators watching our first 3D movie. After about 30 minutes he said, "Do you want to take these glasses off now?" "Yeah," I said.

That pretty much sums up my views of 3D entertainment.


The so called "3D" with glasses like Stewie Wonder is to me a technology that will not succed at all in the future. 3D TV's are expensive, the 3D effect is not as WOW as it had to be and when you look away from TV everything is a bit blurred and dark. If I had to choose (and I have chosen), it will be full HD 2D image over lower res. 3D. Or should I say pseudo 3D. I think VR will make it's comeback, so the 3D glasses will dye out. http://www.futuretim...tyle_emoticons/animate/clap.gif

#17
Nick1984

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For it to become a success it needs to be completely effortless. By that I mean it needs to be as easy as watching TV today, not being required to wear glasses and being able to see the images in equal quality from any angle or distance. So far I've not seen any technology that can do that, atleast in HD anyway.

#18
alonzo-ny

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3D is terrible. I absolutely can't stand it. I saw my second 3D film a week ago and I still think it is as terrible as ever. You sacrifice a great picture for a terrible resolution. In return you get some great shots (very few) and some scenes with a few 2d planes at different depths. Just terrible. I have always been a proponent of VR. I can't wait for that. That will truly be 3D and an enjoyable experience. I'll save my money for great resolution 2D where I get my moneys worth.

#19
Nick1984

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I'll agree with current moboes, other than Avatar everything I've seen in 3D has looked like flat cardboard objects moving around a 3D stage.

#20
Craven

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Transformers 3 is a really subherb execution of good 3D.
"I walk alone and do no evil, having only a few wishes, just like an elephant in the forest."

"Laugh, and the world laughs with you. Weep, and you weep alone."





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