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Poll: The Singularity (94 member(s) have cast votes)

How do you feel about the Singularity

  1. Voted Excited (63 votes [53.39%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 53.39%

  2. Scared (14 votes [11.86%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 11.86%

  3. Skeptical (26 votes [22.03%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 22.03%

  4. Angry (3 votes [2.54%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 2.54%

  5. Neutral (6 votes [5.08%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 5.08%

  6. What's That? (1 votes [0.85%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 0.85%

  7. Other (5 votes [4.24%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 4.24%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#321
Yuli Ban

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Here's a Reddit thread from October 2006 about human speciation and the possibility of the Singularity.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#322
Casey

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It would have been terrible to be a futurist back in 2006. Just as many smug, pompous jerk-offs who simply make snide remarks rather than engage in proper argumentation, but not enough tangible progress for me to be able to shrug them off - honestly, had I entered the world of futurism in 2006, I might have fully believed the skeptics and become rather cynical myself, since many fields that are progressing nicely today (anti-aging, driverless cars, artificial intelligence) felt so impossible at the time. I might have been something of a techno-skeptic myself in that alternate universe where I come across futurism during 2006 or before, at least until the successes of the 2010s started to make me a believer. Even my entry point of 2011 was pretty tense; it's only been during the past two years or so that I've been able to start ignoring the chronically negative people who think nothing will ever change for the better and downplay any progress that's been made, thanks to the fact that we've come so far in so many fields.



#323
Yuli Ban

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ETCeACL.png

You know something, the "Eternal Y2K Cultural Time-Trap Forever" possibility might be even worse than the Eco-Fascist/Neo-Primitivist one. At least in a neo-primitivist world, no one would know how much we're losing out by failing to reach the Singularity and transhumanism or how utterly vulnerable we are. 

Imagine if this is it, though. A slightly sleeker 1985 to 2025 is the best we will ever get. Ridiculously polluted, absolutely alienated, with a transcendental future just beyond us as if we're a civilizational Tantalus. AI is restrained, culture wars keep swinging, and —

 

Globohomo Vampire-Elite Enslavement?

I... I need to see what that looks like.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#324
Squillimy

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Personally I think the singularity will happen and we'll create higher intelligent machines, but it won't be what we expect it to be. The AI will find it hard to create even higher intelligent machines than that itself.

 

Think about it. Take the creation of AI as a starting point, then take super-intelligent AI as the next level. It took us a long time to get from one level to the next, even if you take 'human-level' AI as the starting point. If a super-AI only has its own software to base intelligence from, how could it instantly know exactly how to create an intelligence greater than itself? I mean... If the human-level AI couldnt instantly create a super-AI, why the hell would the super-AI be able to instantly create a super-super-AI? Why do we assume that just because it's smarter than us it knows EVERYTHING there is to know about itself, about intelligence as a concept? WE don't know everything there is to know about ourselves. WE don't know everything about intelligence. WE were only able to create it because we worked together as a species for so long to reach that point.

 

Sure, it has the ability of course to create an intelligence greater than itself, but it's only one being. I think it would need multiple beings of similar intelligence and different viewpoints to approach the path to create an even higher intelligence than the super-AI. Just like it took us time and collaboration of several beings of similar intelligence to create the FIRST super-AI.

 

Think about it like inventing algebra. Just because you moved from arithmetic (1 + 1 = 2) to algebra (1x + 2 = 4) doesn't mean you automatically moved to calculus. You needed several people that knew algebra to come together and eventually discover a higher level of mathematics. Since you're ONE person who knows algebra you have no frame of reference or aid to increase to higher mathematical levels. You're more likely to just research deeper levels of algebra.

 

I just think it's kinda utopian to think "oh we created ONE singular being that's smarter than us in every field! our woes are over! mankind is saved!".  Like it's probably a bit more complicated than that...


What becomes of man when the things that man can create are greater than man itself?


#325
tomasth

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Squillimy

Why just ONE singular being ?



#326
Squillimy

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Squillimy

Why just ONE singular being ?

 

 

Because of Ray Kurzweil's quote "the last invention mankind need ever make is a super-intelligent AI". Not sure if that's the exact word for word quote but the gist of it. I don't agree with him on that. I think we will create multiple ones based on our own understandings, just like we repetitively are creating multiple AI's today. And as we begin merging with technology to enhance our own intelligence, we will in turn keep creating more sophisticated AI's, as those AI's themselves continually try to create more sophisticated AI's and so on and so forth.

 

It's just that it seems like he makes it sound like the second we create that first super-intelligence, we kick back our seats and say job well done.


What becomes of man when the things that man can create are greater than man itself?


#327
tomasth

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If that AI can do our job and faster , then yes. That being will make more because there is a lot to do.

 

If you compar calculating by a human and by a computer , a computer can do it faster ; but the task is still done so it might need several steps.



#328
Yuli Ban

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How the Technological Singularity will Impact the World (according to seventh graders)

When I was a teacher, at the end of the school year, I would try to leave a day or two to teach about miscellaneous topics the students expressed interest in — each year, this included technology. So, I taught a brief lesson (you can find more details about the lesson at the end of this post) about emerging technologies, and about the futurist theory that “the technological singularity is near.”
First, I gave the students a working definition for the singularity (see above). Next, I had the students consider what kinds of technologies might emerge in their lifetimes. Then, I had them consider how the post-singularity world might look, through the four major lenses for understanding Social Studies, which we had been studying all year: political systems, culture, geography, and economics. I felt doing this lesson allowed me to cover a topic students wanted to learn about, while giving students a chance to think creatively, and exercise their philosophical thinking skills.
My students’ imaginative visions of our future depict a world that is sometimes rosy and exciting, and other times dystopian and disconcerting. They came up with some intriguing, terrifying, and amazing ideas about how political systems, culture, geography, and economics might be impacted — some of their predictions might blow your mind.

 
 
WOW, this is what I like seeing: youth discussions into futurist topics! I'll do two PowerPoint pictures to a post:

u0wvYgC.jpg

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#329
Yuli Ban

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N3w57Pr.jpg

aGsbBu6.jpg


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#330
tomasth

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Indeed. Youth discussions of futurist topics is normalizing them , making those topics mainstream and more impotently changing the starting point of other discussions.



#331
wjfox

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Another example of "exponential" progress in science/tech (similar trend can be seen with exoplanet discoveries, btw).

 

https://www.futureti...g/2019/10/9.htm

 

 

1775-solar-system-moons-discovery-timeli



#332
eacao

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About two months ago I came across an article that stated this century, global economic growth would accelerate from a 4% CAGR today, doubling each ~15 years to doubling every two years, then every few months or even weeks. I didn't pay much attention at the time. 

 

I wasn't sure whether the Singularity would really be a hard takeoff or a soft takeoff. There were good arguments either way imho. Computing hardware being the bottleneck, the problem of raising intelligence by '1 point' being harder than the previous increase, nullifying compounded returns and so on. 

 

But then one night, days later, I was trying to sleep and hit me: "I've seen economic singularities before."

 

These are some graphs that made me realise sudden jumps in the rate of economic growth materialise extremely rapidly. These are for the most recent 'singularity' but history is riddled with several more.

 

These were taken from the Handbook of Economic Development, volume II iirc. 

 

uXTiMaE.png

 

r3K9a9I.jpg


If you're going through hell, keep going. - Winston Churchill

You don't decide your future. You decide your habits, and your habits decide your future.
Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power. - Abraham Lincoln.


#333
eacao

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ZRJ67qZ.png

 

Also take into account the rate of change after the development of copper working, agriculture of course, and iron working. Natural evolution is also littered with apparent 'singularities' or inflection points. Abiogenesis obviously was the first, but haploids and sexual reproduction similarly sped things along by orders of magnitude. Eukaryotes, collagen, social structures and more. 

 

I'm quite convinced that this will all be a hard takeoff now. When tho, when when when when when?


If you're going through hell, keep going. - Winston Churchill

You don't decide your future. You decide your habits, and your habits decide your future.
Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power. - Abraham Lincoln.


#334
quantumdoc

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If the concept of a singularity does not scare you, I suspect you are not educated on it. I believe it is already in beta stage as we speak. the internet was the beginning. I have heard it described best by elon musk. he describes how right now the singularity is contained within all of us as we interact with the internet and right now the transfer medium is a computer and our phone. these devices link our brain to the internet of which connects the planet. the only limiting factor at this point is the data transfer rate. he goes on to explain we just have a data transfer issue and that is the speed being limited buy the medium we are using, (our phone). he said the moment there are neurological implants reducing the transfer speed to as instantaneous as thought, our human civilization will be forever linked.

 

I believe this is not if, but when and is entirely inevitable. the sooner we embrace it and not fight it, the better we will be. sound like the borg? :spiteful:


"what we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning" WH


#335
wjfox

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"So close to recognizing the pattern, or am I just projecting?"

 

https://www.reddit.c...n_or_am_i_just/



#336
quantumdoc

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I think that if virtual reality will eventually become the world we all prefer and live in, then eventually most people will yearn to live back "like the old days" and virtual reality will be simulated to feel like it wasn't simulated at all. then the evolution of people living in that existence will keep progressing on and on in a continuous loop.

 

how long do you think we have been in a simulation right now?


"what we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning" WH


#337
funkervogt

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Why would humans move to the mountains to escape pollution? Wouldn't the Singularity give us the technology to clean up pollution? 



#338
Yuli Ban

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^ The context kinda got lost when quantumdoc quoted that particular post: these were answers given by seventh graders about how the Singularity will impact humans. 

 

When I was in seventh grade (around age 11, 12 or so), I had never even heard of the word "singularity" before, even though I had a lingering interest in future tech. And I can definitely tell you that a lot of conclusions I've reached in the past ten years would've been completely foreign to my mind back then. I think I even mentioned it in a status update that, when I first joined the forum back in 2012, my primary focuses were on transhumanism, flexible electronic paper, and some sci-fi inspired gadgetry. AI was barely a concern because I was sure that "AI" worked by computer scientists getting a supercomputer and hand-coding every single task, question, answer, and fact into it. I independently figured out that something like 'machine learning' might be possible way back in the 2000s, but I thought machine learning itself was full-fledged AI and that once we had a machine that could learn something without having that knowledge hard-coded into it, we'd basically have sci-fi tier AI.

 

Just horribly, horribly inaccurate views on things. Gleaned, of course, by watching documentaries and other such programs on History Channel, National Geographic Channel, and whatnot, which simplified things and made them much flashier. And I believe I've also mentioned before (in threads about "dumbest things non-futurists have said about the future") that I've encountered people (even in real life) who still believe the thing I once did: that AI like Siri or DeepMind work because there's an army of supergenius nerds constantly adding to the networks' information banks (or vice versa, that Siri and DeepMind are already sci-fi tier AI or at least are almost there). There was even this one bloke who genuinely believed machine learning itself was a hoax.

 

And also, back in the late 2000s, early 2010s when I was "into" futurism and knew my way around what the future held (because I watched 2057, FutureweaponsModern MarvelsThat's Impossible, and Physics of the Future and read the manuals to Deus Ex: Invisible War, Perfect Dark, Halo, and some other sci-fi games), I created this elaborate idea of what the future would be like decade by decade, with hilariously anthropomorphic androids starting to affect labor in the 2060s and 2070s and leading to a robot civil rights movement (followed by an AI civil rights movement in the early/mid-2100s— I want you to try to wrap your mind around that one).

 

 

What's incredible is that I was considered incredibly knowledgeable on future matters among my peers. Ask anyone else around me about things like artificial intelligence, nanobots, gene modding, and flying cars and the closest thing they would get to was "will our school fly in the future?" Not "will we fly to school in the future"— will the school itself be floating in midair in the future.

 

I can forgive seventh graders for being a little bizarre and misinformed with their predictions.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#339
Miky617

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^^ Where is the "Dumbest things non-futurists have said about the future" thread? I thought about starting a similar one recently and didn't realize there was already one. I'd be interested in reading that



#340
wjfox

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The next 40-50 years will be insanity.

https://www.reddit.c...ll_be_insanity/







Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Singularity, AI, artificial intelligence, 2045, Kurzweil, Technological Singularity, superintelligence, future, intelligence explosion, transhumanism

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