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I have the eternal life?!


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19 replies to this topic

#1
qfeys

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Lately, I read on the main page that at 2065, science would be able to slow down aging with 12 months per year, and so making us live forever. It set me thinking and I made a model to predict the chance that I would live till than. 

I assumed that this slowing down, what was 2 months a year already in 2010, linearly rose to the 12 in 2065. I also took in account the different survival ratios for each age, as they are found with statistics these days. This made me a pretty good model.

It showed me that my generation (born in 1993) had more than 97% chance of making it till then. Also my parents generation (born in 1962) would make it with 92% chance!

Probably, my model isn't quite right, but even with some margin, these numbers are astonishing high. Someone has any thoughts on this?

 

 

PS: For those who really want to know: I made the model with Ocatve. If you want the code, feel free to ask.



#2
Kombaticus

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Will we have the technology?  Yes.

 

Will you be alive by then?  Sure.

 

Will we all have access to it?  No.

 

Welcome to the forums.


Edited by Kombaticus, 28 December 2012 - 10:58 PM.

  • H3llion likes this

"Let teachers and priests and philosophers brood over questions of reality and illusion. I know this: if life is an illusion, then I am no less an illusion, and being thus, the illusion is real to me. I live, I burn with life, I love, I slay, and I am content." -Conan the Cimmerian


#3
StanleyAlexander

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Yep.  Rethink your retirement plans :)


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Humanity's destiny is infinity

#4
qfeys

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I've got still plenty of time for that. Even if the technology lags behind some years for the common people, there are pretty big margins on my numbers. :)

 

I just find it bizarre that I might have an eternal live. Not as bare speculation, but actually funded.

 

Sorry I keep hoping. Blame it on my age that I haven't lost my hope in humanity yet.



#5
Kombaticus

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I've got still plenty of time for that. Even if the technology lags behind some years for the common people, there are pretty big margins on my numbers. :)

 

I just find it bizarre that I might have an eternal live. Not as bare speculation, but actually funded.

 

Sorry I keep hoping. Blame it on my age that I haven't lost my hope in humanity yet.

 

Give it a few years.


"Let teachers and priests and philosophers brood over questions of reality and illusion. I know this: if life is an illusion, then I am no less an illusion, and being thus, the illusion is real to me. I live, I burn with life, I love, I slay, and I am content." -Conan the Cimmerian


#6
kjaggard

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Will we have the technology?  Yes.

 

Will you be alive by then?  Sure.

 

Will we all have access to it?  No.

 

Welcome to the forums.

immortals shall walk the earth, but there can be only one.


  • H3llion likes this
Live content within small means. Seek elegance rather than luxury, Grace over fashion and wealth over riches.
Listen to clouds and mountains, children and sages. Act bravely, think boldly.
Await occasions, never make haste. Find wonder and awe, by experiencing the everyday.

#7
kjaggard

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Will we have the technology?  Yes.

 

Will you be alive by then?  Sure.

 

Will we all have access to it?  No.

 

Welcome to the forums.

immortals shall walk the earth, but there can be only one.


Live content within small means. Seek elegance rather than luxury, Grace over fashion and wealth over riches.
Listen to clouds and mountains, children and sages. Act bravely, think boldly.
Await occasions, never make haste. Find wonder and awe, by experiencing the everyday.

#8
Italian Ufo

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Will we have the technology? No, only  regenerative therapy will be better then. Still you can die from accidents or for diseases.

 

Will you be alive by then? Maybe

 

Will we all have access to it? No, it will be very expensive.

 

Welcome to the forums.


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#9
Kombaticus

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Italian UFO is copying me.

 

He even changed his avatar.


"Let teachers and priests and philosophers brood over questions of reality and illusion. I know this: if life is an illusion, then I am no less an illusion, and being thus, the illusion is real to me. I live, I burn with life, I love, I slay, and I am content." -Conan the Cimmerian


#10
Italian Ufo

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Italian UFO is copying me.

 

He even changed his avatar.

Nope lol- To change the avatar i had the intention since  days ago as you can see in my status!



#11
Demo

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Will we have the technology?  Yes.

 

Will you be alive by then?  Sure.

 

Will we all have access to it?  No.

 

Welcome to the forums.

I disagree, if drugs are released that can extend your lifespan indefinatly people will want them. I mean really want them, the drug companies will never be able to charge their current rediculous prices, someone somewhere will find the compound and replicate it. If they refuse to sell them at sane prices there will be a HUGE black market for them, thefts and break-ins. Only the US charges huge extortionate prices for drugs, people WILL find out that other places have them for cheap, they will either import them, or riot.



#12
Kombaticus

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Will we have the technology?  Yes.

 

Will you be alive by then?  Sure.

 

Will we all have access to it?  No.

 

Welcome to the forums.

I disagree, if drugs are released that can extend your lifespan indefinatly people will want them. I mean really want them, the drug companies will never be able to charge their current rediculous prices, someone somewhere will find the compound and replicate it. If they refuse to sell them at sane prices there will be a HUGE black market for them, thefts and break-ins. Only the US charges huge extortionate prices for drugs, people WILL find out that other places have them for cheap, they will either import them, or riot.

 

I hope you are right.  Shitty as the world is, I like being alive.

 

I tend to have reservations about these treatments being available to the masses mostly because sickness and death are "good for business."  There are huge interests at work here.

 

But then again, I have no way of knowing what will encourage advances in technology by that time.

 

Don't mind me, I'm just being a cynical bastard.


"Let teachers and priests and philosophers brood over questions of reality and illusion. I know this: if life is an illusion, then I am no less an illusion, and being thus, the illusion is real to me. I live, I burn with life, I love, I slay, and I am content." -Conan the Cimmerian


#13
Demo

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Sometimes being cynial is better than being optimisitc! The biggest issue we will face will be people protesting the ethics, depending on the year and place I think religion will cause quite an upset. Then we have the huge issue of population control. This won't be a problem if we can fix a few fundamental issues, such as food and job creation, with a huge but not aging population education will become so important I could see college level (I don't mean university, in the UK we have two years of education prior to Uni but after senior school) education becoming compulsory.

We will require artificial meat to cut down on the huge areas of land used up, I love the idea of vertical farming. Although perhaps huge floors of indoor farmland would be a better space saver?


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#14
Casey

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Will we have the technology? No, only  regenerative therapy will be better then.

 

I don't know... you do have the tendency of predicting future technologies coming to exist multiple decades after every other expert predicts they will. -_- You're a good guy, but I hope your vision of glacially slow medical and technological progress won't be mirrored by reality.


Edited by Casey, 31 December 2012 - 01:42 AM.


#15
Kombaticus

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LEAVE ITALIAN ALONE!


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"Let teachers and priests and philosophers brood over questions of reality and illusion. I know this: if life is an illusion, then I am no less an illusion, and being thus, the illusion is real to me. I live, I burn with life, I love, I slay, and I am content." -Conan the Cimmerian


#16
Casey

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Aww, I'm not being mean to Italian. He's a cool guy.


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#17
kjaggard

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actually he like myself is a fungi, sorry couldn't resist showing mycelium...

 

med tech primarily is easy to anticipate progressing slowly when you've had to deal with medical and health care systems long enough. The issue isn't the expansion of our knowledge and understanding, it's regulatory and due diligence. we can learn lots really fast, making sure that long term Telomerase doesn't instigate multiple and rapid development of cancers or even a new cancer like condition in which a mutant cell starts out chimerically thriving and then begins replicating to form a parasitic fraternal twin or something else like that.

 

The pain in the butt for medical advancement is that if you build a crappy car it's not a big deal, if you do a crappy bypass surgery you have a death and lawsuits.

 

Make a crappy drug and you create suffering and death and lawsuits until your childrens children are indentured for life.

 

Better safe than sorry, slow and steady wins the race, haste makes waste ect. these are medical advancment philosophies.


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Live content within small means. Seek elegance rather than luxury, Grace over fashion and wealth over riches.
Listen to clouds and mountains, children and sages. Act bravely, think boldly.
Await occasions, never make haste. Find wonder and awe, by experiencing the everyday.

#18
Casey

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Those are some good points, jagg. I forget that the medical field is subject to some complexities and setbacks that other areas of study don't have to concern themselves with; with my sister having Lupus and all, I have some amount of experience with what you're speaking of. I can only hope that advancements in the coming years will help chip away at some of the stumbling blocks that make medical progress slower than it should be... though at any rate, Kabe's recent thread about cryopreservation helps abate my worries some. $200,000 for being cryopreserved with Alcor isn't too high a price considering that you're basically paying for life itself, me and the rest of my family can just sign up to be cryo'd if by the end of our natural lifetimes there's not yet any medical miracles around to save us.



#19
Saradus

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LEAVE ITALIAN ALONE!

Sorry to go off topic, but I can't resist after seeing your avatar. "That's what you get for acting da mickey Virginia!"


All men dream but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dream with open eyes to make it possible. - T. E. Lawrence


#20
Kombaticus

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Don't let me catch you on my Erf again!


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"Let teachers and priests and philosophers brood over questions of reality and illusion. I know this: if life is an illusion, then I am no less an illusion, and being thus, the illusion is real to me. I live, I burn with life, I love, I slay, and I am content." -Conan the Cimmerian





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