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Immortality in 2045


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#41
kjaggard

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In the previous discussions of the 2045 project I've made this argument but I'll say it again:

 

In all likelyhood what they will get is a sort of telepresence set up by early to mid 20s. But upon trying to push further they will hit some very major hurdle.

By late 40s I expect the first brain into artificial body will be attempted, and I also expect that three months will be the total lifespan of that experiment. The discovery will be that they really just have no idea how to keep a brain viable long term outside the complex chemical and electrical systems of the body. There will be at least three more attempts before they get somebody to survive more than a year or two, and that person will likely have severe intellectual impairment and possibly a psychotic episode. Again the complex chemical environment and biorythms are far more subtle than we can anticipate.

 

It's far more practical to find ways to jack somebody into a VR setup and whittle away an aging body bit by dieing bit. Replacing systems with smaller systems that perform similar functions until you have a shell like a beachball with brain and life support while the person lives full time in VR. Eventually we may see coming back out in some forms of robotics but it's going to take a good long while before a realistic human body can be made.

 

For me the last two ideas are foolish pipe dreams that we will learn before then simply won't be possible anymore than the idea of shrink rays and genetically engineering x-ray vision.

 

The more important thing though is the spin offs that result and the hacks that happen when even pars of these techs start to get realized. Mind controlled devices, cybernetics, robotic augmentation and body modification. Body swapping, animal mimicry, tricks the human body just can't do, and people becoming ships and buildings if they choose.

 

It'll be far more amazing than they anticipate, and so I hope they try for all they are worth. Because even getting just short of half way there would be enough to completely change the way the world is.


Live content within small means. Seek elegance rather than luxury, Grace over fashion and wealth over riches.
Listen to clouds and mountains, children and sages. Act bravely, think boldly.
Await occasions, never make haste. Find wonder and awe, by experiencing the everyday.

#42
Yuli Ban

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#43
Charles

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It seems that we are too focused on mind uploading. While this would definitely be a great thing, we will never know whether it will be possible to transfer our consciousness, and whether it will be us to live forever or just a copy of our minds. If the second thing is true, that would actually lead to extinction of humanity.

People would go extinct, and only copies of their minds would carry on living. Probably those copies would be conscious and as human as we are, but they won't be us. Maybe this is a way to lay foundations for a post-human world, but I believe those of us who are born into physical bodies will all die eventually. Maybe our copies wil carry on living for thousands or millions of years and achieve amazing things. But we will be very dead at that time and we won't know what they are doing.

 

What I would like to ask, instead, is: Do you believe biological immortality will ever be possible? Or, if not immortality, then at least, a radical life extension. But in a way that we keep and preserve our real, biological bodies and brains? Will the advances in biology, medicine and genetics, ever allow our biological selves to live, say 200 years, but not as grumpy and slow old people, but as healthy and active individuals. Will it ever be possible to be 100 years old, and look like a 30 years old, and be as sharp mentally and as strong physically as a 30 year old?


Edited by Charles, 02 June 2013 - 04:45 AM.


#44
Sciencerocks

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Here's what I believe...Believe me wars, disease and idiotic leadership could charge this...

 

2013-2016--->3d(Bio) printers will make kidneys, livers, colons, arms, legs, thighs. Possibly hearts. Yes between 2013-2016 all this will be made possible.

Bionic eyes will improve within the same time span

Cancer vaccines will be made for pretty much all forms between now and 2025. I believe the first cancer to be completely curable and livable within the next 5 years.

Strokes damage will be reversible by 2015

High blood pressure will be lowerable by 2015-2018.

 

Research into live extension will be taking off within the 2020's and 2030's. So I'd say humans could live 120-150 years old by 2045 without any problem.

 

 

The United states or anyone nation not holding all the medical advances makes me hopeful. ;) Destroying our ability to research is what scares me very much right now. It takes a lot of money and capital to do...China may very well do all this stuff as it is unlikely they will be stupid enough to fall back to the idiocy.


Edited by Matthew, 02 June 2013 - 06:06 AM.


#45
bee14ish

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In the previous discussions of the 2045 project I've made this argument but I'll say it again:

 

In all likelyhood what they will get is a sort of telepresence set up by early to mid 20s. But upon trying to push further they will hit some very major hurdle.

By late 40s I expect the first brain into artificial body will be attempted, and I also expect that three months will be the total lifespan of that experiment. The discovery will be that they really just have no idea how to keep a brain viable long term outside the complex chemical and electrical systems of the body. There will be at least three more attempts before they get somebody to survive more than a year or two, and that person will likely have severe intellectual impairment and possibly a psychotic episode. Again the complex chemical environment and biorythms are far more subtle than we can anticipate.

 

It's far more practical to find ways to jack somebody into a VR setup and whittle away an aging body bit by dieing bit. Replacing systems with smaller systems that perform similar functions until you have a shell like a beachball with brain and life support while the person lives full time in VR. Eventually we may see coming back out in some forms of robotics but it's going to take a good long while before a realistic human body can be made.

 

For me the last two ideas are foolish pipe dreams that we will learn before then simply won't be possible anymore than the idea of shrink rays and genetically engineering x-ray vision.

 

The more important thing though is the spin offs that result and the hacks that happen when even pars of these techs start to get realized. Mind controlled devices, cybernetics, robotic augmentation and body modification. Body swapping, animal mimicry, tricks the human body just can't do, and people becoming ships and buildings if they choose.

 

It'll be far more amazing than they anticipate, and so I hope they try for all they are worth. Because even getting just short of half way there would be enough to completely change the way the world is.

So, if consciousness transfer is possible, when do you think it will be done?



#46
kjaggard

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to be perfectly honest I don't think it's possible.

 

I think it's very much like those bad science fiction concepts from B movies and such. Invisibility potions, and shrinking, and the Hulk resulting from radiation, ect.

 

We may one day be able to recreate the idea but the route being suggested will never work. Just like invisibility potions won't happen but we can create nanomaterials and energy feild generators that may one day make somebody invisible but it's a devise that does it not some chemical that transforms the tissues to be invisible. We may very well be able to have a nerdy guy gather mass rapidly and bulk out into a massively powerful and impossibly invulnerable being, but it won't be a gamma ray bomb that does it and it won't be a mutation in the person, it will have to be technologically designed.

 

I do not forsee digitising a human brain and having it be the same person ever happening. I can see that we can interface with the brain and add sensory inputs and feedback and maybe some day data storage and augmented processing power. I can also see replacing large sections for more efficient synthetic parts (though a part of me says that something of the human may be lost in the process, because much like in beauty and character it's the imperfect quirks that we each have that make us us and not just injection molded duplicates).

 

But something as fundimentally individual as a persons identity I don't think is transferrable. Could we upgrade indefinately and even keep supplying stem neural cells to the neural core that makes us up, probably by some point. It's even possible that some day those cells can be worked with nano and smaller tech to augment the cells themselves and keep them repaired and running indeffinately. But I really think that the moment when we push any further past that an unnoticable thing will happen. The universe won't notice, other people and AI won't notice and likely you won't notice but you will just wink out and something that for all intents and purposes thinks it's you and can do and be exactly as you are before, but it will simply be a best as possible duplicate.


Live content within small means. Seek elegance rather than luxury, Grace over fashion and wealth over riches.
Listen to clouds and mountains, children and sages. Act bravely, think boldly.
Await occasions, never make haste. Find wonder and awe, by experiencing the everyday.

#47
Colonel O'Neil

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2045 may or may not be too early. Remember it was only a few years ago that we didn't have HDTV and ipads and touchscreen phones. Those have all come in the last 5 years! By 2040, we certainly will have the hardware, but in no way does that mean that we will be able to live forever.

 

If (according to Kurzweil) we develop AI by 2029-if we are heading on that kind of a timeline then by 2045 we will hit the singularity and all that entails. However, I think it is unlikely.

 

This article gives a good explanation why Kurzweil is mistaken and how the singularity is bogus. Whether you agree or not will be interesting to see.

 

http://scienceblogs....ly-singularity/


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#48
Pwaa

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Doesn't sound right to me.  If another version of me was going to live forever but i still had to die at some point, i wouldn't consider that much of a consellation of my death.  I don't see how you can transfer consiousness of a living thing without killing the origional, else you've created a duplicate and so the origional consiousness cannot be experiencing both of themselves, if you get what i mean.



#49
dreamer246

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How can any of you say that consiousness can't be transfered if you can't explain it?

Besides,every cell in the human body gets replaced every 10 years and you are still you(probably).If you really wanted to transfer your consiousness into another body the safest way would be to slowly replace every cell in your body with advanced nano bots over a period of 10(or less)years.



#50
kjaggard

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how can you say that consciousness Can be transferred if you can't explain it?

 

That's just it. We don't know which scenario is right, and to my way of thinking until we do it's just belief vs belief.

 

Besides: http://askanaturalis...-7-or-10-years/ no we don't, and you have no proof you are the same person who went to bed last night and more importantly Why you are or are not.

 

The safest way of any of this is not to invest all belief in unknowns but to ask for more information and be able to go with the answers that arrive. I don't know that we can't transfer, but I also do know that we can. So I'm not counting on it and not building any expectations on it either.


Live content within small means. Seek elegance rather than luxury, Grace over fashion and wealth over riches.
Listen to clouds and mountains, children and sages. Act bravely, think boldly.
Await occasions, never make haste. Find wonder and awe, by experiencing the everyday.

#51
Casey

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2045 may or may not be too early. Remember it was only a few years ago that we didn't have HDTV and ipads and touchscreen phones. Those have all come in the last 5 years! By 2040, we certainly will have the hardware, but in no way does that mean that we will be able to live forever.

 

If (according to Kurzweil) we develop AI by 2029-if we are heading on that kind of a timeline then by 2045 we will hit the singularity and all that entails. However, I think it is unlikely.

 

This article gives a good explanation why Kurzweil is mistaken and how the singularity is bogus. Whether you agree or not will be interesting to see.

 

http://scienceblogs....ly-singularity/

 

Well, I'll still be putting my faith in Kurzweil. He has a good enough track record that I don't see any reason to put the opinion of Smarmy Intellectual Asshole # 8,723,624 over Kurzweil's.

 

And the scathing disrespect Kurzweil receives from so many of his detractors has always pissed me off, honestly. Even were every single one of his predictions wrong, he's devoted his entire life to making the world a better place by contributing towards science and medicine. He's a good man that deserves a lot of respect; those who sneer at his ideas seem to take things a step too far and completely strip the man of any good qualities.



#52
Colonel O'Neil

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100% agree. If you watch transcendent man it's downright disgraceful how some people treat him. With contempt and snide laughter. They usually are the religious ones. The scientists are usually respectful, and why wouldn't they be? The man has had honours from 2 US presidents!

The art of forgetting is inherent in human minds; the art of being forgotten  is the normal fate of knowing. We as futurists don't accept that. In the panels of the Universe, we alone will remain standing; remain unforgotten.





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