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Full immersion virtual reality in 2039


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Poll: Full immersion virtual reality in 2039 (61 member(s) have cast votes)

When do you think we will have full immersion virtual reality?

  1. 2020-2025 (2 votes [3.28%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 3.28%

  2. 2025-2030 (7 votes [11.48%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 11.48%

  3. 2030-2035 (9 votes [14.75%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 14.75%

  4. 2035-2040 (14 votes [22.95%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 22.95%

  5. 2040-2045 (10 votes [16.39%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 16.39%

  6. 2045-2050+ (19 votes [31.15%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 31.15%

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#1
José Andrade

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So, the timeline says that we will be fully immersed in virtual worlds by 2039. Do you agree or do you think that it is a too optimistic / pessimistic prevision?


"In this world, a single blade can take you anywhere you want to go. It's a virtual world, but i still feel more alive here than i do in the real one." Kirito - Sword Art Online


#2
Time_Traveller

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I think that year is too early for full immersion and many people i don't think will be full immersed until after 2050. 


“One, remember to look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Two, never give up work. Work gives you meaning and purpose and life is empty without it. Three, if you are lucky enough to find love, remember it is there and don't throw it away.”

 

Stephen Hawking


#3
wjfox

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First demonstration will occur by the late 2030s, based on trends in computer power and miniaturisation (which are exponential).

 

It won't be mainstream or commercialised until somewhat later.



#4
Italian Ufo

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Virtual reality in the 30 will be like the computers in 1980s...

I think we will see full virtual reality in the 50s 60s..



#5
José Andrade

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Virtual reality in the 30 will be like the computers in 1980s...

I think we will see full virtual reality in the 50s 60s..

Unfortunately you are probably right. I hope age treatments are mainstream way before that otherwise i will enter full immersion virtual reality really old, with like 60+ years old.


"In this world, a single blade can take you anywhere you want to go. It's a virtual world, but i still feel more alive here than i do in the real one." Kirito - Sword Art Online


#6
SG-1

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I agree with Will and Italian, I think technically we will be capable of full immersion by 2039, but I don't think it will be practical until 2045-2055.

 

That's ok, at least I can expect to live until the 2070-2080s! That gives me a few decades with full immersion virtual reality, and being an old fart able to pretend I am a 20 year old superman, that is fine by me.


Hey.  Stop reading.  The post is over.


#7
Malgidus

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I think this is a very complex concept and it depends on how you define every term. Ever since the advent of the Internet and then the World Wide Web, the average person has lived a portion of their lives in the "virtual" world. And year after year, the number of people spending time in virtual environments (such as this one) has increased, as well as the time that the average person spends in them. For the past decade, millions of careers have been created out of these virtual worlds, some even on virtual worlds built onto the virtual world of the "Internet", e.g. Second Life, World of Warcraft. Myself, I spent the majority of my free time as a teenager (2003-2009) on forums and a MMORPG (Runescape). For times, in most senses of the world my entire world existed in a virutal landscape. I even even fell in love with someone over the internet, which was one of the most interesting times of my life. But despite most of my time spent on it, and me "feeling" more immersed in the virtual world than the real one, I suppose that "full immsersion" would mean all of our senses (there is a lot more than five, by the way) would have to be completely overridden/bypassed and all inputs into your brain would be coming from a virtual/synthetic source other than "reality". Barring the deep philosophical consequences of this, as by definition, this could be your new "reality", especially if you were given no way to get out of it... I expec something like this to be possible by the middle of the century. But the full immsersion is orders of magnitudes more difficult than a nearly-full immserd virtual reality. In the current time we are experimenting with augmented reality with Google Glass and Occulus Rift which can display crude 3D graphics to your eyes as well as sound. Over the next few years this will definitely evolve into retina-definition true 3D with real world quality audio (at least possibly... many artists are still required to produce these environments... but the technology to dsplay them to you basically already exists. And over time, other senses will start to emerge in the virtual world: taste and touch definitely, possibly smell. Some devices will definitely be able to do a lot of these, in any case. However, augmented reality just overlays a virtual world on top of the "real" one. For true virtual reality we need to bypass the brain's inputs or at least tap directly into optical pathways, etc. And this will require a much greater knowledge and control over the brain, and these technologies seem far off. But biology is hopping onto the exponential trends, and everything we learn about it will allow us to learn about it faster and faster. It's estimated we will be able to emulate a human brain near the end of the next decade, so I expect nearly full-immsersion virtual reality shortly thereafter. tl;dr: AR: late 2010s, early 2020s. Nearly full immsersion VR: early 2030s.

Full VR: 2050  


My mind has been torn into Oblivion, is there a way to tear that too? Reach into the Oblivion, and through Zen, tear the Universe anew.

Tradesman by day, [game] programmer by night. Philosopher all day long. @Malgidus |Forest Bear Studios


#8
bee14ish

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I think full immersion will come shortly after the Singularity, but it won't be as detailed as real life. I'd say simulations indistinguishable from real life may come in the 2080s or 90s. 

 

Also, how about intelligent VR simulations? You know, simulations that you can talk with, or where the people in the simulation are just like the real life versions in every way. What are you guys' thoughts on those?



#9
Frizz

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Around 2060.
“Give me time and I’ll give you a revolution.”
- Alexander McQueen

#10
Lily

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Yeah, I'm not so confident that we'll be able to fully experience this any sooner than mid-century. Some prototypes might be around sooner, I'd guess like mid 2030s.


"All scientific advancement due to intellegence overcoming, compensating, for limitations. Can't carry a load, so invent wheel. Can't catch food, so invent spear. Limitations. No limitations, no advancement. No advancement, culture stagnates. Works other way too. Advancement before culture is ready. Disastrous."

There's definitely truth in that...


#11
Italian Ufo

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Anyway, do you think that full virtual reality will happen throught nanobots entring in the neural system?



#12
Colonel O'Neil

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I hope so. Other types such as helmets or visors don't seem as practical. It's hard to say because we don't even have any nano bots yet that could do anything like what we need them to do.We're like the people of the 1960's when the first computers came out-except in our case it's virtual reality. No one back then could dream about iPads and smart tvs. I think by 2050 we will have nanabot fivr, assuming nanotechnology has also been developing exponentially

The art of forgetting is inherent in human minds; the art of being forgotten  is the normal fate of knowing. We as futurists don't accept that. In the panels of the Universe, we alone will remain standing; remain unforgotten.


#13
Italian Ufo

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I hope so. Other types such as helmets or visors don't seem as practical. It's hard to say because we don't even have any nano bots yet that could do anything like what we need them to do. We're like the people of the 1960's when the first computers came out-except in our case it's virtual reality. No one back then could dream about iPads and smart tvs. I think by 2050 we will have nanabot fivr, assuming nanotechnology has also been developing exponentially

Definitely there will be huge debates about side effects and brain integrity. Debates will also be about ethics.

Honestly Full VR seems science fiction for us who are living in early 21st century.



#14
José Andrade

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I hope you guys are all wrong. xD I am just kidding, i know that FIVR is not a thing that we will reach from day to night but damn some replies are really pessimistic. Or maybe it's just me because In the end FIVR is my favorite thing about the future and i try to be always optimist about it.


"In this world, a single blade can take you anywhere you want to go. It's a virtual world, but i still feel more alive here than i do in the real one." Kirito - Sword Art Online


#15
zen_mutiny

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This guy should get more credit. Marshall Brain's "Vertebrane" concept.

 

You can read more about it in his short story here. I highly recommend this story as one of the best examples of fictional futurism I've read in quite some time. It offers both dystopian and utopian views of the future. The timetable might seem a bit accelerated, but the science seems very sound. Oh, and the article that the first link I've posted is from is a good read, too. 


Edited by zen_mutiny, 27 May 2013 - 08:12 PM.


#16
VRMMORPG

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Marshall propose the same that the movie " Ezitenz" .



#17
StanleyAlexander

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For the first prototypes and CES booth demos of full-immersion VR, I don't think '39 is too optimistic.  Reverse-engineering of the brain will be sufficiently advanced by 2030 that interfaces won't be far behind.  Put a decade of development into those interfaces, and keep in mind that power and price performance have been increasing exponentially all this time, and full-immersion before 2040 doesn't sound too unreasonable.


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#18
Colonel O'Neil

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i agree, but man it's still so far off! I want it now (cue tantrum)!


The art of forgetting is inherent in human minds; the art of being forgotten  is the normal fate of knowing. We as futurists don't accept that. In the panels of the Universe, we alone will remain standing; remain unforgotten.


#19
José Andrade

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i agree, but man it's still so far off! I want it now (cue tantrum)!

Indeed! I think about VR every single day, no exception.


"In this world, a single blade can take you anywhere you want to go. It's a virtual world, but i still feel more alive here than i do in the real one." Kirito - Sword Art Online


#20
samal90

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I think a lot of you underestimate technology advancement.  It seems to me that we are advancing faster and faster as the years go by. The occulus rift will be the first generation of virtual immersion. Just look at the past 15 years. I remember 15 years ago, gaming was little dots on the screen. Now, it's almost photo realistic..well...getting there soon. I think full VR will be in the late 20s and beyond that..in late 30s we will have full immersion rooms.






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