Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!
Photo

Full immersion virtual reality in 2039


  • Please log in to reply
40 replies to this topic

Poll: Full immersion virtual reality in 2039 (61 member(s) have cast votes)

When do you think we will have full immersion virtual reality?

  1. 2020-2025 (2 votes [3.28%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 3.28%

  2. 2025-2030 (7 votes [11.48%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 11.48%

  3. 2030-2035 (9 votes [14.75%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 14.75%

  4. 2035-2040 (14 votes [22.95%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 22.95%

  5. 2040-2045 (10 votes [16.39%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 16.39%

  6. 2045-2050+ (19 votes [31.15%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 31.15%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#21
FutureOfToday

FutureOfToday

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,685 posts
I'm guessing around 2060 - 2090. Anywhere in that thirty year space, but before 2500 I think it will be very basic and to expect 'fully immersive' VR by then is a little too optimistic for me.

#22
zen_mutiny

zen_mutiny

    Post-Singularitarian

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 352 posts
  • LocationIndiana, United States

The big hurdle is going to be input delivered directly to the brain. That requires not only advances in the exponentially growing field of computer technology, but also, big advances in neuroscience. For it to be ubiquitous, knowledge of the human brain would have to advance to the point that most people would undergo elective brain/spinal surgery. Right now, most people would be dubious of such a prospect, if they would even consider it all. 

 

Barring invasive procedures, or nanobots, which both require much more advancement in order to be feasible, or widely accepted, we can still make significant strides with LED contact lenses, or other visual systems, and thought controls through non-invasive EEG technology. Expect that to be the norm for a while, as the aforementioned hurdles to actual full immersion are being overcome. Still, that's not a bad deal. Being able to pull up a game or simulation of any sort, with no regards to what kind of processing power your wearable tech has, since more intensive software can be run on a cloud-based system, with complete visual and audio immersion, and control everything with your thoughts, no matter where you are, whether you're being driven by a driverless car, or commuting on the subway, is still a significant advancement, and in itself, is worth the wait. 



#23
Zaphod

Zaphod

    Esteemed Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 849 posts
  • LocationUK

The thing is, we don't need to have full immersion virtual reality before it become hugely popular and influential. Some hardcore gamers already spend more of their lives in virtual worlds today despite the basic representation of reality our current technology has. By 2039, though we might not have 100% full immersion, hyper-realistic VR, I think the majority of people will be engrossed in these worlds. Like zen_mutiny said, we can get pretty far with completely non-invasive VR like contact lenses.

 

As for completely-indistinguishable-from-reality-VR, I would say 2050 is as good as any estimate, but really it is very difficult to predict.



#24
José Andrade

José Andrade

    Waiting for Immortality and FIVR

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 344 posts
  • LocationPortugal
I'm guessing around 2060 - 2090. Anywhere in that thirty year space, but before 2500 I think it will be very basic and to expect 'fully immersive' VR by then is a little too optimistic for me.

2500? Wow, 2500 sounds more like when we start to control the weather and have bases in all solar system planets.


"In this world, a single blade can take you anywhere you want to go. It's a virtual world, but i still feel more alive here than i do in the real one." Kirito - Sword Art Online


#25
José Andrade

José Andrade

    Waiting for Immortality and FIVR

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 344 posts
  • LocationPortugal
Anyway, do you think that full virtual reality will happen throught nanobots entring in the neural system?

Yeah, definitly. I mean, what's the alternative?


"In this world, a single blade can take you anywhere you want to go. It's a virtual world, but i still feel more alive here than i do in the real one." Kirito - Sword Art Online


#26
SG-1

SG-1

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,653 posts
  • LocationUS - Arkansas
This guy should get more credit. Marshall Brain's "Vertebrane" concept.

 

You can read more about it in his short story here. I highly recommend this story as one of the best examples of fictional futurism I've read in quite some time. It offers both dystopian and utopian views of the future. The timetable might seem a bit accelerated, but the science seems very sound. Oh, and the article that the first link I've posted is from is a good read, too. 

I love his stuff.  I've read that, and most of his other work.


Edited by SG-1, 11 August 2013 - 01:49 AM.

Hey.  Stop reading.  The post is over.


#27
Brohanne Jahms

Brohanne Jahms

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 598 posts

http://asia.gamespot...-brain-20130804

 

Cool related video.



#28
Michelangelo

Michelangelo

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 25 posts

The sooner the better. I'm hoping for something rudimentary around 2030 and more advanced by 2040. 



#29
10gamerguy

10gamerguy

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 96 posts
  • LocationFlorida, USA, North America, Earth

There's already been some forms of VR, but full-immersion? That seems a bit far off. maybe the 2040s or so. That doesn't mean I won't be waiting, though.


I want mah virtual reality!


#30
tigerghost

tigerghost

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 59 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE / Quincy, IL

What would the Omni be categorized under? It seems pretty virtual reality-ish to me. For those that are unfamiliar with the Omni, it is an omni-directional treadmill interface that allows players to walk around in game environments with support from the Rift and some Kinect-like sensors. If it is successful, wouldn't that be a big leap forward for true VR-interfaces? Am I wrong?



#31
OunknnownO

OunknnownO

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 268 posts

I think around 2100-2140



#32
Fatalbert911

Fatalbert911

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 137 posts
  • Locationusa, east coast

well film was invented about 100 years ago & over that time. we have gone from colorless & soundless moving pictures to 4k UHD tv's so with that in mind & taking in the acceleration of tecnology. Then logically i'd say about in about 50 years from it's first incarnation, give or take a few years (probably take). 

 

I consider virtual reality to have started in the mid 90's, since then it's just been a matter of making it full immertion. With up coming devices like the oculos rift, i personally will consider it to be full vr's first official form.it's set to come out either late this year or early next (hopefully). 

 

So from there i just do the math 2013 + 50 years, 2063 to be exact. i'd expect it to come around 2050-60. Although i'm being modest here in saying that tecnology will only double & be twice as powerful hence cutting advancement time in half from 100 to 50 years. based on how film advanced....

 

But the reality is that tecnology isn't just doubling it actually going to triple, quadruple, & grow exponentially. So with that in mind, i'd tend to agree with the time lines more optimistic prediction of the year 2039. I personally would also like this to be the case as well, the sooner the better =)


Edited by Fatalbert911, 12 August 2013 - 03:21 PM.


#33
FutureOfToday

FutureOfToday

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,685 posts

I'm guessing around 2060 - 2090. Anywhere in that thirty year space, but before 2500 I think it will be very basic and to expect 'fully immersive' VR by then is a little too optimistic for me.

2500? Wow, 2500 sounds more like when we start to control the weather and have bases in all solar system planets.

Well, I mean by the time we develop VR so realistic you can't tell that it's not real life, I think it will be around 2500.

#34
José Andrade

José Andrade

    Waiting for Immortality and FIVR

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 344 posts
  • LocationPortugal

 

I'm guessing around 2060 - 2090. Anywhere in that thirty year space, but before 2500 I think it will be very basic and to expect 'fully immersive' VR by then is a little too optimistic for me.

2500? Wow, 2500 sounds more like when we start to control the weather and have bases in all solar system planets.

 

Well, I mean by the time we develop VR so realistic you can't tell that it's not real life, I think it will be around 2500.

I think the basic VR will be between 2039-2050 and then the VR indistinguishable  from real life around 2070-2080


"In this world, a single blade can take you anywhere you want to go. It's a virtual world, but i still feel more alive here than i do in the real one." Kirito - Sword Art Online


#35
Squillimy

Squillimy

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 924 posts

I think around the 2050's early 2060's latest we'll see it. I always did think 2039 was a little optimistic for FIVR. But you never know.... Also, the commercialization of the technology is another thing that'll slow it down a little. Ethical problems too will require a lot of extra testing to make sure nothing goes wrong.

 

Oh man, You always realize computers get more and more space and you wonder how you're going to fill it all but you always find a way! FIVR will be that shit. Imagine how much computer space / memory it'll take to upload an entire physical being into a virtual world; not to mention the virtual world itself. Videogames will begin to hold petabytes; maybe even exabytes of information. 


What becomes of man when the things that man can create are greater than man itself?


#36
Colonel O'Neil

Colonel O'Neil

    From Time Immemorial...

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 816 posts
  • LocationLondon, UK

Its hard to say seeing as we haven't got any real life examples of nanotechnology (in the form that would be needed)-they're just concept ideas for now. 2040 sounds about right, but that's only 27 years away!

 

I suppose we shouldn't underestimate the speed of technological change, but that's hard to take in.


The art of forgetting is inherent in human minds; the art of being forgotten  is the normal fate of knowing. We as futurists don't accept that. In the panels of the Universe, we alone will remain standing; remain unforgotten.


#37
SG-1

SG-1

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,653 posts
  • LocationUS - Arkansas

27 years ago: http://en.wikipedia....in_video_gaming

Look at us now:

 

 

I hope this happens.  27 years is a long time for computers, Moore's law (double every 18 months) says computers will be (27x12=324/18=18) So 18 "doublings" in 27 years.  That is a lot of power!


Hey.  Stop reading.  The post is over.


#38
Casey

Casey

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 681 posts

18 months... so that means, compared to August 2013 computers...

 

February 2015: 2x

August 2016: 4x

February 2018: 8x

August 2019: 16x

February 2021: 32x

August 2022: 64x

February 2024: 128x

August 2025: 256x

February 2027: 512x

August 2028: 1024x

February 2030: 2048x

August 2031: 4096x

February 2033: 8192x

August 2034: 16,384x

February 2036: 32,768x

August 2037: 65,536x

February 2039: 131,072x

 

So at the current rate of progression, the most powerful computers towards the tail end of the 2030s will be more than 130,000 times more powerful than the top computers of today. I wouldn't necessarily place full-immersion virtual reality as being beyond the capabilities of something that incredible. And I might be wrong, but I vaguely remember Kurzweil stating in one video that during the 2030s, the double rate should have declined to once every six months rather than every 18.



#39
FutureOfToday

FutureOfToday

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,685 posts
I guess that puts it into perspective. But I'm still not sure whether computers would be able to perform VR quite so soon. I still think the technology will be available after 2050. Maybe 2040s at the earliest.

#40
Malgidus

Malgidus

    Four Lefts From Reality

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 226 posts
  • LocationCanada
18 months... so that means, compared to August 2013 computers...

 

I think it is more accurate to say that Computations per KWh has doubled every 1.6 years since the 1940s. Transistor doublings on a die is more like 1.9+ years.


My mind has been torn into Oblivion, is there a way to tear that too? Reach into the Oblivion, and through Zen, tear the Universe anew.

Tradesman by day, [game] programmer by night. Philosopher all day long. @Malgidus |Forest Bear Studios





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users