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What's your predicted timeline?


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#1
The End or The Beginnning

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I love the timeline, but I think some things will happen a lot sooner than we think. What are some of your predictions? It's probably overly optomistic, but here's mine:

 

2016- Autopilot cars on sale, and become hugely popular within the next few years.

 

2019- IBM reaches stated goal of computer with exoflop processing speeds. Increased processing creates gains in every IT sector including software, AI learning computers, brain mapping, and brain simulation projects.

 

2021- Results from brain mapping, and simulation projects makes possible main stream use of  thought controlled computers and texting.

Further, improvements in language and learning software will create almost perfect translation and internet search search engines that can find exactly what you're looking for instead of just keywords.

 

2022- Before 2010 computers were able to run simulations that led to working robots designed with minimal human interction.

By 2022 computers are now fully capable of improving on themselves as well as designing the next generation of computing technology. According to Ray Kurzweil and others once we've created the first computer capable of improving itself the time between improvements will be shorter and shorter. For example the first computer takes 1 year to make a better computer, the next one takes 10 months, and so on until major advances in computing will happen within days.

 

From here on advancements will happen in currently unimaginable time. Things like transhumanism becomes possible well befor 2045. In some countries upgradable neural improvements will only belong to an elite class, but these areas will quickly fall behind any country that makes the neural upgades available to all. Imagine who will improve faster a country with 10 geniuses or millions?


"Exponential growth looks like nothing is happening, and then suddenly you get this explosion at the end." -Ray Kurzweil


#2
Italian Ufo

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Autopilot cars may be available just in the 30s



#3
Zaphod

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Self driving cars wont be out in 3 years, I think the first will come out at least 10 years from now. Yes, the current prototypes work well most of the time, but to pass all the legislation and paranoia people have they need to be  flawless. Once the first models come out there will be a exponential growth in sales. When they become ubiquitous, most will start becoming autopilot only.

 

Thought control devices will be relatively soon and will start of very simple and gradually improve.



#4
zen_mutiny

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I predict that within the next 20 years, personal computing will have evolved past handheld, desktop, and laptop PC's into full-blown wearable AR devices. While the former will still be present, many people will be using AR glasses and contact lenses for all of their computing needs. Significant advances in EEG/thought control technologies will help fuel this revolution, but even if it hasn't been perfected by this point, Kinect-style motion controls will help significantly to supplement the often-inconvenient touch and voice control that first-generation AR devices, like Google Glass, rely on. With motion controls, one can physically interact with interfaces that may or may not be visible to others, similar to what you see in the Iron Man movies. 



#5
The End or The Beginnning

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It's probably just my own hope that self driving cars will be out sooner. I know in the US they're legal in Nevada and California, but they probably won't sell them until they've had further testing. Not to mention they'll probably be too expensive for most people at first.

 

I predict that within the next 20 years, personal computing will have evolved past handheld, desktop, and laptop PC's into full-blown wearable AR devices. While the former will still be present, many people will be using AR glasses and contact lenses for all of their computing needs. Significant advances in EEG/thought control technologies will help fuel this revolution, but even if it hasn't been perfected by this point, Kinect-style motion controls will help significantly to supplement the often-inconvenient touch and voice control that first-generation AR devices, like Google Glass, rely on. With motion controls, one can physically interact with interfaces that may or may not be visible to others, similar to what you see in the Iron Man movies. 

 

Definitely, it seems like the biggest complaint people have with Google Glass is the privacy issue. If it was thought contolled contact lenses it'd be the most popular device out there.


"Exponential growth looks like nothing is happening, and then suddenly you get this explosion at the end." -Ray Kurzweil


#6
StanleyAlexander

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The only timeline prediction I disagree with is: Mind Uploading in 2120.  I think we'll have it well before then because of the same intelligence explosion The End was talking about above.  Ditto for Matter Replicators in 2190.  If we're fucking around with picotechnology a century before that, it won't take the AIs of that age nearly that long to achieve instant replication of any substance.

 

There's a part of me that thinks any attempt at concrete prediction for over 50 years from now is impossible.  There are too many changing factors that are totally unpredictable, and the singularity renders human thought itself obsolete.


Humanity's destiny is infinity

#7
dreamer246

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I honestly think that most of the future timeline,technologically speaking,is WAY too optimistic.



#8
Italian Ufo

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I honestly think that most of the future timeline,technologically speaking,is WAY too optimistic.

In some part it is, but I think that  many predictions are correct.



#9
Futurist

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I'm just an amateur here, so don't put too much weight (or give too much criticism) to my predictions:

 

2010s or early 2020s: RISUG (a form of male contraception) becomes available on the market.

 

2020s or 2030s: A cure for amyloidosis is developed. 2030s: First man on Mars. 2090s: First successful fetus transplant into an artificial womb. 2150s: First (transgenic) anti-aging technology. 2190s: The wealthy achieve indefinite lifespans by this point. Early 2200s: Ordinary people achieve indefinite lifespans by this point. 2310s: Cryogenically preserved people are first revived (with some of their minds being put into new bodies), with the minds of many of them (mostly) intact. Thoughts about these predictions?



#10
Malgidus

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@Italian, @Zaphod: Driverless cares are already here. Sure, they cannot handle nearly all of what we can do, but for the most part, they can get you from point A to point B without a collision. And have been able to do so for a few years. In regards to the legislation, three US states began to allow the use of driverless cars last year alone. As well, almost every major auto maker in the world (GM, BMW, Audi, Tesla, Volvo, to name a few) is targetting somewhere in the 2018-2025 range to bring in autopilot (possibly available in two-three years for some manufacturers) and completely driverless (autonomous) cars. The legal system in most places will be a problem at first, but it will be shown quickly that humans are terrible drivers. It is completely unethical to even allow people to drive if we have a reasonably inexpensive way to prevent the needless death of more than a million people a year.

 

OT: Some of my predictions. The exact date for future predictions can never be taken very literally, as our brains can't understand exponential growth or envision things that haven't been envisioned yet. I try to base my predictions on statistical models. I will admit, I am a "trashumanism" proponent and an optimistic person.

 

2010: Driverless cars. ---- 2014:

Genome sequencing sub-$1000.

2015:

10nm processors.

2016:

Autopilot cars commercially available.

2017:

AR starting to become a useful tool in everyday life.

2018:

Basic medical tricorder. 4K Resolution very common.

 

2019: 

3D Printing/additive manufacturing starting to disrupt industries.

Exabyte scale computing.

2020:

5G --> gigabit scale wireless networking.

Genome sequencing sub-$100.

Personalized medicine. (Biomarkers, sensors, apps)

Solar power is the same cost as conventional energy in much of the world.

 

early 2020s:

Total "jobs" in the world shrinks by >500 million, despite population rising.

First person on mars.

Drones. Drones on farms, drones delivering mail, drones surveilling, drones policing, drones cleaning garbage, etc.

Material science: graphene, nanotubes in small objects/structures.

 

late 2020s:

Nuclear fusion, photovoltaic glass.

Stem cell treatments --> progress in longevitiy extension.

Domestic robots. Plus androids for many purposes.

 

 

early 2030s:

Turing test being challenged: (Possible "Singularity" --> accelerated takeoff)

Total number of "jobs" in the world shrinks by another >1 billion, despite population rising.

Revolutions in food: vertical farming, in vitro meat, synthetic meals, etc.

Virtual reality

 

late 2030s:

Most conventional "jobs" in the world can by done entirely by machine intelligence. Creative work spared for a few years.

Aging "cured". Immortality in sight.

Quantum computing.

Immersive virtual reality.

Human level AI

 

early 2040s:

Arcologies.

Climate engineering.

Nanomachines

Intelligence explosion --> superhuman AI.

Possible: Seed AI --> Singularity take off

 

late 2040s:

Mind uploading.

Programmable matter.

Superhuman AI in small volumes --> subjective time experience multiplied. 2050s onward: Completely full immsersion VR -- anything is possible, possible to experience, etc. STEM compression : civilizations of trillions of minds (experiencing subjective time much faster) can exist on smaller and smaller volumes. STEM compression: alternative Singularity take off path, if seed AI didn't work before.

 

Note this list does not include existential risk.


Edited by Malgidus, 31 May 2013 - 02:42 AM.

My mind has been torn into Oblivion, is there a way to tear that too? Reach into the Oblivion, and through Zen, tear the Universe anew.

Tradesman by day, [game] programmer by night. Philosopher all day long. @Malgidus |Forest Bear Studios


#11
Alric

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2030 for self driving cars? That is silly, they are already better than human drivers. Driving is to stressful as it is, those cars will be every where within 5 years.



#12
The End or The Beginnning

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2010s or early 2020s: RISUG (a form of male contraception) becomes available on the market.

 

That's pretty cool. I've never heard of it before. Thanks.

 

2030s: First man on Mars.

 

Hopefully this will happen in 2020s. I know there's a few companies working with that goal, but if they don't make it NASA is planning on sending a mission in the 30s. It probably won't happen in my lifetime, but you gotta wonder how long it'll be until affordable Mars tourism happens. Maybe if we acheive immortality early I might see it. Of course even if I don't personally get to visit Mars just being able to say you remember when people first stepped foot on Mars will be awesome!

 

2310s: Cryogenically preserved people are first revived (with some of their minds being put into new bodies), with the minds of many of them (mostly) intact.

 

That's an interesting solution. I've never seen mind uploading as a way to unfreeze people from cryo.


"Exponential growth looks like nothing is happening, and then suddenly you get this explosion at the end." -Ray Kurzweil


#13
The End or The Beginnning

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With Malgidus's timeline I can't help, but wonder if the loss of all those jobs would eventually be a good thing. It might force us to rethink how we manage employment and monetary systems, but that would probably only happen once things became damaged beyond repair. Too many people would be unwilling to change the status quo.

"Exponential growth looks like nothing is happening, and then suddenly you get this explosion at the end." -Ray Kurzweil


#14
Zaphod

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@Italian, @Zaphod: Driverless cares are already here. Sure, they cannot handle nearly all of what we can do, but for the most part, they can get you from point A to point B without a collision. And have been able to do so for a few years. In regards to the legislation, three US states began to allow the use of driverless cars last year alone. As well, almost every major auto maker in the world (GM, BMW, Audi, Tesla, Volvo, to name a few) is targetting somewhere in the 2018-2025 range to bring in autopilot (possibly available in two-three years for some manufacturers) and completely driverless (autonomous) cars.  

 

OK, maybe I misinterpreted the OP. There is a distinction between autopilot and driver-less. Autopilot is when you switch from manual driving to computer controlled, this will obviously appear much sooner, as the autopilot can be used only when conditions allow it. In fact we already have quite a few cars that can reverse into spaces for you. The point is, these cars require licensed drivers and the transition to completely driver-less cars that require no drivers will of course take much longer. I still maintain that it will be the early 2020's when autopilot cars that can do most things are allowed in the UK (earlier in America).

 

My main quibble with the timeline is the inconsistency of presenting a future with a singularity or not. If there is a singularity, which I'm inclined to think there is, then all of the technology after this date would occur immediately not decades and centuries after.



#15
Alric

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I agree with that about the singularity Zaphod. I think the singularity will happen within the 30s to the 50's. Which is why I usually why all my predictions for this type of stuff comes prior to 2050. When you get to 2100 I think we will has already started to the process of terraforming mars, have machines more advanced than a 'normal' human, but most people will be advanced and have several upgrades and be effectively immortal in that we don't die very often most from accidents.



#16
Malgidus

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[...] I can't help, but wonder if the loss of all those jobs would eventually be a good thing.

 

I think it will be eventually a good thing. It will be a great thing in nations with forward thinking policies who embrace technology and use it to their advantage as much as possible. The socialist countries might do alright. It's the right-wing capitalist-happy countries that are going to see their economic systems shattered in pieces when the bottom 30% of their workforces ceases to exist. Technology will not keep on creating new jobs at the same rate as it did before; we are entering an era where machine intelligence (in better economic terms, productivity) is truly rivaling human intelligence (productivity). I don't think there are any short-term solutions, until the vast majority of the workforce doesn't really need to work anymore. Their might be a few work arounds: ex. massive automation taxes, universal income, etc. But these aren't going to work well until AI really takes off and penetrates a huge portion of every sector. In any case, there will be most likely be several fundamental shifts in economics in many countries. In the medium-term, global policies should work towards providing everyone with a basic standard of living: food, clothing, shetler, running water, sanitation, electricity, and internet. If those needs could be met efficiently, many people might not care to have a job.

 

My main quibble with the timeline is the inconsistency of presenting a future with a singularity or not. If there is a singularity, which I'm inclined to think there is, then all of the technology after this date would occur immediately not decades and centuries after.

 

I see several paths leading to possibly difference "Singularities". I claim not to know anything much too far past such occurences. I think it's possibly we could have slower intelligence explosions than what recursive-improving-AI would bring. Allowing us a little time to adapt. The likely outcome is that when human-level-AI is brough into existence, that most normal humans won't be able to keep up with the amount of change taking place. But as for asymptotical technological improvement in an instant? Nah. Perhaps rapid change over months, but not over hours and days, at least for very long. We are still bound by the laws of thermodynamics. The planet can only radiate away so much heat, plus we only get so much energy input. We will get very good at making use of that energy, but it will take real time (in years) to scale out in the Universe... if we even do so.


My mind has been torn into Oblivion, is there a way to tear that too? Reach into the Oblivion, and through Zen, tear the Universe anew.

Tradesman by day, [game] programmer by night. Philosopher all day long. @Malgidus |Forest Bear Studios


#17
Guyverman1990

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Mid-late 2010's

Mammoths cloned

E-paper becomes widespread

Scottish Indipendence

Automated Cars

Bionic eyes Tooth regeneration

Lab grown-organs become widespread Treatment of accute spinal injuries

 

2020's First commercial fusion reactor online

Deafness, and blindness fully treatable

First minning of asteroid

Holographic imagry becomes norm Aging treatment AI on par with human brain. Limb regeneration

 

2030's

Hypersonic planes

Manned missions to mars

Commercial Quantum computers



#18
Sciencerocks

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I love the timeline, but I think some things will happen a lot sooner than we think. What are some of your predictions? It's probably overly optomistic, but here's mine:

 

2016- Autopilot cars on sale, and become hugely popular within the next few years.

 

2019- IBM reaches stated goal of computer with exoflop processing speeds. Increased processing creates gains in every IT sector including software, AI learning computers, brain mapping, and brain simulation projects.

 

2021- Results from brain mapping, and simulation projects makes possible main stream use of  thought controlled computers and texting.

Further, improvements in language and learning software will create almost perfect translation and internet search search engines that can find exactly what you're looking for instead of just keywords.

 

2022- Before 2010 computers were able to run simulations that led to working robots designed with minimal human interction.

By 2022 computers are now fully capable of improving on themselves as well as designing the next generation of computing technology. According to Ray Kurzweil and others once we've created the first computer capable of improving itself the time between improvements will be shorter and shorter. For example the first computer takes 1 year to make a better computer, the next one takes 10 months, and so on until major advances in computing will happen within days.

 

From here on advancements will happen in currently unimaginable time. Things like transhumanism becomes possible well befor 2045. In some countries upgradable neural improvements will only belong to an elite class, but these areas will quickly fall behind any country that makes the neural upgades available to all. Imagine who will improve faster a country with 10 geniuses or millions?

 

1. 2017 but won't be very popular until around 2023 for most people.

2. 2021 for extraflop; probably China or India suprisely!

3. 2023 China will have a complete map of the brain!

4. 2025

 

 

I think our technology innovation programs here in America will be defunded more and more. A movement of idiocy is taking over our country. China is the one to watch.



#19
Sciencerocks

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I'm just an amateur here, so don't put too much weight (or give too much criticism) to my predictions:

 

2010s or early 2020s: RISUG (a form of male contraception) becomes available on the market.

 

2020s or 2030s: A cure for amyloidosis is developed. 2030s: First man on Mars. 2090s: First successful fetus transplant into an artificial womb. 2150s: First (transgenic) anti-aging technology. 2190s: The wealthy achieve indefinite lifespans by this point. Early 2200s: Ordinary people achieve indefinite lifespans by this point. 2310s: Cryogenically preserved people are first revived (with some of their minds being put into new bodies), with the minds of many of them (mostly) intact. Thoughts about these predictions?

1. 2018

2.  2025

3. 2042...It won't be America. Maybe a private corporation could get there first?

4. 2054 China again

5. 2043 for the first antiaging drug as we're already slowing it down for mice.

6. 2350

7. 2454

8 2300?



#20
The End or The Beginnning

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3. 2023 China will have a complete map of the brain!

I think our technology innovation programs here in America will be defunded more and more. A movement of idiocy is taking over our country. China is the one to watch.

3. If anyone's going to beat the US to it I think it will be the European program. I do believe you're right about China becoming the dominant scientific power, but I think you overestimate the apparent US idiocy. It's just the way it looks from a glance at mainstream culture, and it's been that way for a while. For example in the 80s it was considered cool to pretend to be stupid, but despite that science programs still existed, and still brought results. Don't judge intelligence by what you see on tv and celebrity magazines. Stupid people aren't as prevalent as you think. It just looks that way because they're noisy.


"Exponential growth looks like nothing is happening, and then suddenly you get this explosion at the end." -Ray Kurzweil





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