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When will we have settlements on mars?


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#1
American futurist

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2050? 2150? What do you think?

#2
Italian Ufo

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2050? 2150? What do you think?

 

don't try to hide. I was born at night but not last night.



#3
American futurist

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2050? 2150? What do you think?

 don't try to hide. I was born at night but not last night.

What are you on about you lunatic!

#4
TransAustin

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I would say by 2040. Check out "A Case for Mars" by Robert Zubrin. We could do it today.


Edited by TransAustin, 15 August 2013 - 07:52 AM.


#5
Sciencerocks

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2065 China for the settlement

For a man mission...Muilti-national-China, Russia, Eu, by 2040.



#6
RayMC

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2055.

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#7
Colonel O'Neil

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I think people are being WAY too optimistic about the whole Mars thing. We could technically do it today, but we won't, because whilst we could technically do it, it would be far too expensive, and to actually have a settlement, you would need thousands of people to move there.

 

There has been some headway with 3d printed buildings, but its still in its embryonic stage. If you're talking about a few domes (or equivalent) then I reckon 2100-2150

 

However if you're talking about true colonization, that requires the terraforming of the planet, which will be in around 2500, according to the timeline.

 

I would say by 2040. Check out "A Case for Mars" by Robert Zubrin. We could do it today.

 

We most certainly could not do it today. Sure we could get a few (not a lot) people to Mars, but what would they do when they got there? Where would they get energy from? Food? Water? How would they get the air they need to breathe? How would they be self-sufficient? Cause with our current rocket technology, it takes a helluva long time to get to Mars.

 

We're not going to have a settlement on Mars for a long time.


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#8
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#9
zEVerzan

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Probably the first manned mission will happen by 2030, and the first settlement will happen by 2050. Hopefully we'll have a self-sustaining colony by the end of the century, so that if mankind screws up on Earth the Martians can pick up the slack.


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#10
Raklian

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Probably the first manned mission will happen by 2030, and the first settlement will happen by 2050. Hopefully we'll have a self-sustaining colony by the end of the century, so that if mankind screws up on Earth the Martians can pick up the slack.

 

Pretty cool that soon we will be calling each other Martians and Earthians, just as casually we call each other Americans and Brits, eh? :)


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#11
zEVerzan

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Earthlings, eh? :p


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#12
Raklian

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Earthlings, eh? :p

 

That's just downright demeaning, lol! Anything that ends with -lings just gives me an image of feeble weakness and something begging to be invaded and molested.

 

How about something more respectable... like Terrans? :)

 

Martians and Terrans... like the sound of that.


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#13
zEVerzan

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TERRANS. The first notes of the Terran Starcraft soundtrack played in my head.

 

It's better than Earthlings, but we could do without the factionalism anyway. "Humans" does fine for me.

 

I have a feeling "Earthlings" will be a derivative term used by Martians to refer to Terrans they don't like. At the same time a lot of Terrans will stereotype Mars as New Canada or Earth Jr., seeing as they won't be a colony anymore by then.


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#14
Raklian

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I have a feeling "Earthlings" will be a derivative term used by Martians to refer to Terrans they don't like. At the same time a lot of Terrans will stereotype Mars as New Canada or Earth Jr., seeing as they won't be a colony anymore by then.

 

Planetism as opposed to nationalism, eh? :)


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#15
UFG

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NASA and obama have publicly targeted 2030 as the first manned mission to Mars. If we think of  settlements rather than broad colonization,  the rapid growth of technology we are experiencing could put us up there by...um...(guessing)...2050.



#16
Ru1138

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We most certainly could not do it today. Sure we could get a few (not a lot) people to Mars, but what would they do when they got there? Where would they get energy from? Food? Water? How would they get the air they need to breathe? How would they be self-sufficient? Cause with our current rocket technology, it takes a helluva long time to get to Mars.   We're not going to have a settlement on Mars for a long time.

 

You're right in that we couldn't do it today. But I think that in a decade or two the technology could be there. The answers to your questions depend on what mission architecture you want.

 

If nantenna based solar (2 to 3 times more powerful than silicon PV) becomes possible in the 10-20 year timeframe, then that could be a very good source of energy. If fusion comes as soon as NBF or Lockheed Martin predict, that could work as well.

 

Food is a more difficult prospect. A greenhouse + aquaculture could produce the needed food, but more research needs to be done.

 

Water is actually simpler than food. Give wastewater to a greenhouse and the plants use the nutrients to grow. Take the transpiration products from the plants and drink that. If that doesn't work, grow some succulents and take the water from them.

 

Air will likely take two components. A greenhouse (for CO2 scrubbing) and Elektrons (for oxygen generation). Other options (assuming that there's enough energy) would be a Bosch or Sabatier reactor.

 

Travel time is probably the worst part. If you go with the Mars Direct route, then you're stuck in a sardine can for six to seven months with three other people. Making the habitat bigger could work, but you'd need to assemble the ship in orbit. Again, if fusion becomes practical in the near future we could use VASIMR propulsion to get us there in less than two months for the closest approach. But at other times travel would take longer, especially at opposition. So for near term settlement it would probably be best to go only when Mars and Earth are nearing closest approach.


What difference does it make?


#17
Logically Irrational

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Water ice is really the most important thing based on what I've read, and Mars (especially at the polar regions) has plenty of it. If you locate the colony so that it has access to a substantial supply of the stuff, you would be set as far as water and oxygen goes. Large-scale greenhouses would also be useful to achieve this, and you would have no shortage of carbon dioxide. Air miners could pull useful gasses out of the atmosphere (though I admit that this form of geoengineering is still sometime off). A lot of the materials you would need, including components for solar panels, could be manufactured locally. With 3D printing it becomes even easier.

 

Solar power may seem more difficult since Mars is farther away from the sun than earth. However, the comparatively thin atmosphere on Mars makes the difference between between it and Earth smaller than you would think. I remember reading somewhere that the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface of Mars is roughly equivalent to the amount reaching Earth on a partly cloudy day.

 

I think a Martian colony is perfectly feasible if our current technology and research is properly applied. Taking into account the financial costs and political issues, I would say a manned Martian base will be built by 2050, with large-scale civilian settlement beginning around the end of the century. I'm extremely confident in the technology, I'm just not so confident in how high a priority it will be considering all the other problems we'll face this century.


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#18
Ru1138

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Air miners could pull useful gasses out of the atmosphere (though I admit that this form of geoengineering is still sometime off).

 

Not necessarily. We already have filters that can sieve out different gasses. Just place one in between an intake turbine and a sub-micron dust filter.


What difference does it make?


#19
Logically Irrational

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Would these filters be practical for large-scale production though? Especially on Mars, these machines would have to be highly efficient and fairly powerful. I don't know a whole lot about this technology though...


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#20
Ru1138

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Would these filters be practical for large-scale production though? Especially on Mars, these machines would have to be highly efficient and fairly powerful. I don't know a whole lot about this technology though...

 

I'm not sure. But another technique could be to take in all atmospheric gases, compress them to liquid state, then boil them. Since some gases are lighter than others, they'll float. I believe this method is used in the petrochemical industry as well.


What difference does it make?





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