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First extraterrestrial colony?


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33 replies to this topic

Poll: First extraterrestrial colony? (41 member(s) have cast votes)

Where will be the first extraterrestrial human colony?

  1. The Moon (19 votes [46.34%])

    Percentage of vote: 46.34%

  2. Mars (18 votes [43.90%])

    Percentage of vote: 43.90%

  3. Orbiting the Earth (3 votes [7.32%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.32%

  4. Lagrangian point (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  5. Asteroid (1 votes [2.44%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.44%

  6. Jovian/Saturnian moon (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. Phobos/Deimos (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  8. Outside the Solar System (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  9. Humans will never form an extraterrestrial colony (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  10. Other (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

When will the first extraterrestrial colony be formed?

  1. before 2020 (1 votes [2.44%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.44%

  2. 2021-2030 (9 votes [21.95%])

    Percentage of vote: 21.95%

  3. 2031-2040 (14 votes [34.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 34.15%

  4. 2041-2050 (5 votes [12.20%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.20%

  5. 2051-2070 (6 votes [14.63%])

    Percentage of vote: 14.63%

  6. 2071-2100 (5 votes [12.20%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.20%

  7. 2101-2300 (1 votes [2.44%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.44%

  8. After 2300 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  9. Never (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#1
four

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...where humans live with the intention of staying there and reproducing (as opposed to something like the International Space Station where astronauts only stay for 8 months or so)

 

I think 2030-2039, and it will be on Mars. What do others think?


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#2
Squillimy

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I put mars, and also 2071 - 2100 because i think the 'plans' to have legitimate human colonies on mars will be delayed for a while. 


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#3
SG-1

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Darn it, I meant Mars, not the moon.

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#4
Zaphod

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Mars, from 2051-2070. To build a permanent colony is far beyond our current technology, so it will take a while but with exponential growth and the right investment I think it will happen in about 40-50 years. Anything before 2040, is in my opinion too optimistic, but I hope I am wrong.



#5
Raklian

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We know Elon Musk is one hell of a determined guy.

 

He has no intention of dying on Earth, that's for sure. He dreams of doing just that on Mars.


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#6
Ewan

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2020-2030 if Mars One is a success, 2030-2040 if not. 



#7
Frizz

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The Moon around 2050.
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#8
Frizz

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The Moon around 2050.
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#9
Roh234

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I'm going bet we are going to try to settle on the Moon.

 

3 Day trip vs 6 month trip(can be reduced to 1 month) ,having a 1 second delay rather 10 minute delay, and the reduced cost and proximity to the ability to send rockets to the moon at anytime plus the He3 on the moon. I will guarantee the moon will be colonized first. 


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#10
FutureOfToday

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The moon during the 2040s would be my guess.

#11
Time_Traveller

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The moon during the 2040s would be my guess.

I agree with FoT going with The Moon in the period of 2041-50.


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#12
Ewan

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I don't know about the moon, they couldn't be self sufficient like a mars colony could. I mean I could see there being a base on the moon, and mining perhaps, but I'm not sure people would want to permanently live there? The thing about Mars, is that distance is the very thing that will probably cause people to live there permanently.

Edited by Ewan, 07 September 2013 - 08:31 PM.


#13
Lily

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How much interaction would you expect with such a colony? Would there be tourists from one planet to the other? At the beginning, if necessary, would people who are sick and injured be transported back to earth? It would suck if you go to live on Mars or something and then died of a disease which could've been treated on earth.

 

On the topic: I would think Mars is more likely to become a permanent human colony. The moon isn't nearly as interesting as Mars, although I could imagine it to become some soft of base. Maybe it would be like a prototype: We see how it works on the Moon, in close proximity to Earth, and then, we'll take the whole thing on a higher level - Mars.


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#14
King of Ace

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Earth serve as centre ;)


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#15
FutureOfToday

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I expect to see one on the moon long before Mars. Mars probably won't be built on until the second half of this century at least.

#16
CamGoldenGun

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The only purpose for building a "colony" on the moon would be to service the mining industries at first. Eventually I assume there will be manufacturing on the moon to eliminate the need to push it up to space with a rocket from Earth.

 

But an honest-to-goodness colony with their own leaders, etc. will likely be Mars as the moon will just be a staging area.



#17
zEVerzan

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A moon colony will happen first, despite being far more hostile than Mars's environment. It's closer and will act as a stepping stone to Mars, but it will be 100% dependant on Earth, at least at first.


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#18
wjfox

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The Moon, 2035-2040.

 

I disagree that it's "far beyond our current technology."

 

I mean, it's not as though we're teleporting a human, or creating wormholes, or some other exotic form of technology. How hard can it be to construct a simple shelter on the Moon's surface? We've already sent humans there, plus we have robots and 3D printers and all kinds of other stuff. Space agencies and private commercial ventures are already making plans for it to happen - check the references in the latest prediction. For China in particular, it would carry enormous prestige.

 

Also, it would be far cheaper to establish a base on the Moon first, rather than Mars.

 

 

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#19
Ewan

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Well really it depends what you mean by a colony... this is the dictionary definition, "A group of people living in such a country or area, consisting of the original settlers and their descendants and successors.". I just don't see a lunar base working like that. More likely is that it would be seasonal work much like the ISS, with workers returning to earth where their families live. I don't think we'll see any lunar colony until perhaps even past 2100. The cost of building infrastructure would have to heavily decrease, and that's not going to happen for a long time. 



#20
wjfox

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Well really it depends what you mean by a colony... this is the dictionary definition, "A group of people living in such a country or area, consisting of the original settlers and their descendants and successors.". I just don't see a lunar base working like that. More likely is that it would be seasonal work much like the ISS, with workers returning to earth where their families live. I don't think we'll see any lunar colony until perhaps even past 2100. The cost of building infrastructure would have to heavily decrease, and that's not going to happen for a long time. 

 

Beyond 2100? That seems incredibly pessimistic. Look at Bigelow Aerospace and their inflatable modules. Also, 3D printers could source materials locally. Then you have crowd-funding on the Internet, re-usable rockets, new materials, etc. etc. There are many ways of bringing down costs. This isn't the 1970s anymore!






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