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First extraterrestrial colony?


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33 replies to this topic

Poll: First extraterrestrial colony? (41 member(s) have cast votes)

Where will be the first extraterrestrial human colony?

  1. The Moon (19 votes [46.34%])

    Percentage of vote: 46.34%

  2. Mars (18 votes [43.90%])

    Percentage of vote: 43.90%

  3. Orbiting the Earth (3 votes [7.32%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.32%

  4. Lagrangian point (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  5. Asteroid (1 votes [2.44%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.44%

  6. Jovian/Saturnian moon (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. Phobos/Deimos (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  8. Outside the Solar System (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  9. Humans will never form an extraterrestrial colony (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  10. Other (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

When will the first extraterrestrial colony be formed?

  1. before 2020 (1 votes [2.44%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.44%

  2. 2021-2030 (9 votes [21.95%])

    Percentage of vote: 21.95%

  3. 2031-2040 (14 votes [34.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 34.15%

  4. 2041-2050 (5 votes [12.20%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.20%

  5. 2051-2070 (6 votes [14.63%])

    Percentage of vote: 14.63%

  6. 2071-2100 (5 votes [12.20%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.20%

  7. 2101-2300 (1 votes [2.44%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.44%

  8. After 2300 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  9. Never (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#21
Ewan

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Well really it depends what you mean by a colony... this is the dictionary definition, "A group of people living in such a country or area, consisting of the original settlers and their descendants and successors.". I just don't see a lunar base working like that. More likely is that it would be seasonal work much like the ISS, with workers returning to earth where their families live. I don't think we'll see any lunar colony until perhaps even past 2100. The cost of building infrastructure would have to heavily decrease, and that's not going to happen for a long time. 

 

Beyond 2100? That seems incredibly pessimistic. Look at Bigelow Aerospace and their inflatable modules. Also, 3D printers could source materials locally. Then you have crowd-funding on the Internet, re-usable rockets, new materials, etc. etc. There are many ways of bringing down costs. This isn't the 1970s anymore!

 

 

It is perfectly feasible Wj, but I don't think there will be the wish or political means to do it. Even now there are no real permanent colonies on Antarctica for instance, and we have had the feasibility to do that cheaply for a long long time. People work on oil rigs all around the world at sea, but their families do not live with them. You first have to sort out territorial issues, and I'm not sure if that will ever be agreed upon, at least while we still have nation states like today. This is why I am very sceptical of the Antarctica section on FTL, just because it is physically feasible to live there does not mean that people will do or can do politically. 

 

With regards to cost, where does crowdfunding even come into it. Living on the moon is still going to be prohibitively expensive compared to earth, even in 2100. The only way to form a colony in the first place would be via state sponsorship. You also have to remember that transport costs will also decrease overtime, allowing people to easily go between the Earth & Moon. Why would people live there? Why would the government sponsor families to live there? It's not as easy as simply creating a living platform, you need schools, recreational areas, hospital facilities. I can't see any nation state funding something like that. 

 

The only reason I think Mars is a possibility is due to the distance. Transport between Mars & Earth isn't nearly as convenient or economical, any sort of base would have long term residents staying for likely over a year at a time. This could lead to a colony forming over time even if by accident. 


Edited by Ewan, 09 September 2013 - 08:51 PM.


#22
Zaphod

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I agree with Ewan that to create a settlement that is permanent with a reproducing population as the OP stated is still quite far advanced from our current technology. Yes, by the 2030s we may have a functioning moon base but this is a far cry from what you would call a colony . A permanent colony would be much more suitable and worthwhile on Mars and to pull this off would require a massive amount of investment and research. I think 40-50 years from now is not being pessimistic (after 2100 for any extraterrestrial colonies at all is though).


Edited by Zaphod, 10 September 2013 - 05:53 PM.


#23
King of Ace

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the space-lift will build on 2050


I am not a fan of S.T show "just don't like it" ,Its boring like hell but I love to see cool technology in coming years.

i don't live in really great english countries like some you guys, im alittle indian,chinese,enbgrish ,mexican, leaf village and soul society .


#24
wjfox

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I agree with Ewan that to create a settlement that is permanent with a reproducing population as the OP stated is still quite far advanced from our current technology. Yes, by the 2030s we may have a functioning moon base but this is a far cry from what you would call a colony . A permanent colony would be much more suitable and worthwhile on Mars and to pull this off would require a massive amount of investment and research. I think 40-50 years from now is not being pessimistic (after 2100 for any extraterrestrial colonies at all is though).

 

Oh, if we're talking "colonies" - as opposed to just a simple base - then I agree. I kind of skimmed through without reading the OP's question properly!



#25
seventhclass

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we are so close about this

the project is on going as we speaks



#26
Russell's teapot

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I've always wanted to live in a colony on a moon in the Jovian or Saturnian system. Being able to see a giant gas planet covering a considerable portion of the sky would be awesome. Also, thinking about living in a colony on, say, Callisto, Europa or Titan (although I wouldn't be able to see Saturn from Titan's surface), fills me with longing for the future; a sensation which is similar to the nostalgia I sometimes feel when thinking about certain past events.

 

Humanity's first colony will obviously be on either the Moon or Mars. For various reasons, I am actually quite uncertain when it comes to which of these celestial bodies will harbor our first extraterrestrial colony. I voted the Moon, but it could be Mars - because of various ongoing projects that I think will probably fail.

 

When? It is hard to say. It could happen as early as the 2020s. I do, however, think that our first extraterrestrial colony will be established much later (because these things seem to take longer than many people appear to think); if I had to guess, I would say sometime between 2050 and 2070 - or perhaps even later. Many years ago, I predicted that humans would first land on Mars in 2048. I still think that this year will be the first year that humans will land on Mars. Let's wait and see - I would find it funny if I got the year right.


Theorem: It is always too soon for despair. Proof: We do not know our fates.

- Robert C. W. Ettinger


#27
RayMC

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We will go on Mars first, by 2040-2050


“Wʜᴀᴛ ɪs ɴᴏᴡ ᴘʀᴏᴠᴇᴅ, ᴡᴀs ᴏɴᴄᴇ ᴏɴʟʏ ɪᴍᴀɢɪɴᴇᴅ.” - Wɪʟʟɪᴀᴍ Bʟᴀᴋᴇ


#28
raxo2222

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I think it will be moon colony in 2030's or in late 2020's - used mostly by scientist and rich space tourists.


Any technology sufficiently advanced is indistinguishable from magic.* - A. Clarke
Any magic sufficiently analyzed is indistinguishable from technology.** - Somewhere from Internet

*Relatively, comparing to rest of world. Go back in time with modern tech. **Lets assume its working only in fantasy/simulated world. Go forward in time with unicorns.


#29
KaRdAsHeV~sCaLe

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I think it will be Mars colony because of MarsOne. They say they will land on Mars in 2022 and establish a colony


Counting down the days until 2050: 12,499 Humanity = 0.72 on the Kardashev scale
Counting down the days until 2100: 30,761
Counting down the days until 3000: 359,479


#30
DallasCowboysFan

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We will have people spending extended periods of time on the moon by around 2025.

 

But I think around 2055-2060 we will get a huge, BioSphere II like environment up on the moon where lots of people can permanently stay.

 

Mars will get simple colonies around 2050 I'd say, and a big colony like the one above by 2085. Assuming, of course, Mars One doesn't work!

 

First colony not on those probably won't happen for a century afterwards.


Edited by DallasCowboysFan, 25 September 2013 - 01:44 AM.

"The best way to predict the future, is to create it."

For those not in the know, the Dallas Cowboys are an American Football team, and they are terrible. But I must stay strong.

Neil Degrasse Tyson is God.


#31
zEVerzan

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We will have people spending extended periods of time on the moon by around 2025.

 

A pretty tall order; that's only 12 years from now. A small underground base maybe, but I can't see extended periods of time spent on the moon being a thing and I certainly can't see a lot of people being there.


I always imagined the future as a time of more reason, empathy, and peace, not less. It's time for a change.
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#32
DallasCowboysFan

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We will have people spending extended periods of time on the moon by around 2025.

 

A pretty tall order; that's only 12 years from now. A small underground base maybe, but I can't see extended periods of time spent on the moon being a thing and I certainly can't see a lot of people being there.

 

 

Oh, I always word things awkwardly. I mean more like, we'll have a couple people spending two or three months on there. Nothing earth shattering or anything, it doesn't even have to be self sustaining. I'm sure some rich country will give it a try sometime soon.


"The best way to predict the future, is to create it."

For those not in the know, the Dallas Cowboys are an American Football team, and they are terrible. But I must stay strong.

Neil Degrasse Tyson is God.


#33
zEVerzan

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...or company. If anyone's going to start that, it'll be Google or Elon Musk.


I always imagined the future as a time of more reason, empathy, and peace, not less. It's time for a change.
Attention is currency in the "free marketplace of ideas".
I do other stuff besides gripe about the future! Twitter Youtube DeviantArt +-PATREON-+

#34
JCO

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I think it is likely that the first location where a settlement is started with the intent of indefinite habitation will be on the Moon. I think the first person to die of old age and be born beyond Earth will be in orbit.


Confirmed Agnostic - I know that I don't know for sure and I am almost certain no one else does either.





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