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Immortality


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Poll: Immortality and Mars Colony (89 member(s) have cast votes)

When will Humans reach Immortality

  1. 2015 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. 2025 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. 2035 (5 votes [5.62%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 5.62%

  4. 2045 (8 votes [8.99%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 8.99%

  5. 2055 (20 votes [22.47%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 22.47%

  6. 2075 (15 votes [16.85%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 16.85%

  7. 2100 (17 votes [19.10%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 19.10%

  8. 2200 (7 votes [7.87%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 7.87%

  9. Several Centuries From now (7 votes [7.87%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 7.87%

  10. Several dozen Centuries From now (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  11. Hundreds of Milenia (1 votes [1.12%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 1.12%

  12. Voted Never (9 votes [10.11%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 10.11%

When will Man make a colony on mars

  1. in 20 years (16 votes [17.98%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 17.98%

  2. in 30 years (14 votes [15.73%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 15.73%

  3. Voted in 50 years (24 votes [26.97%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 26.97%

  4. in a century (26 votes [29.21%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 29.21%

  5. in several centuries (8 votes [8.99%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 8.99%

  6. in a milenia (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. 10,000+ years (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  8. Never (1 votes [1.12%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 1.12%

When will we stop all diseases

  1. in another 5 years (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. in another 10 years (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. in 20 yerars (8 votes [8.99%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 8.99%

  4. in 50 years (28 votes [31.46%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 31.46%

  5. in 100 years (21 votes [23.60%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 23.60%

  6. in 500 years (8 votes [8.99%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 8.99%

  7. in 1000 years (1 votes [1.12%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 1.12%

  8. 1000+ years (5 votes [5.62%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 5.62%

  9. Voted never (18 votes [20.22%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 20.22%

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#41
Unrequited Lust

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SENS unprecedented progress in the past few years:



If ^this^ much is achievable in the infant few years of SENS, what is possible in the next 40?

#42
Prolite

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The only way I could see this working for those currently alive is through powerful anti-oxidants such as Resveratrol, or some kind of gene therapy that gives people "longevity genes", which is not really true life extension. It's simply changing our genes so everyone who's healthy can live to at least 100. And I suppose if more stuff like Resveratrol comes on the market between now and 2070, and that these anti-oxidants are so powerful that they extend life by 4-5 years, than perhaps it's possible to reach longevity escape velocity.
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#43
Unrequited Lust

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The only way I could see this working for those currently alive is through powerful anti-oxidants such as Resveratrol, or some kind of gene therapy that gives people "longevity genes", which is not really true life extension. It's simply changing our genes so everyone who's healthy can live to at least 100. And I suppose if more stuff like Resveratrol comes on the market between now and 2070, and that these anti-oxidants are so powerful that they extend life by 4-5 years, than perhaps it's possible to reach longevity escape velocity.

Reservatrol has already been shown to not work at all.

Gene therapy is already available and should be widely available by the end of this decade. By "longevity genes" I assume you mean genes that would to do the same things caloric restriction does. The drugs that do this have already been developed, are undergoing FDA trials, and should be available in 10-15 years.

We (you and me) are only focusing on biotechnology right now which will supplanted by nanotechnology in the coming decades.

#44
Roh234

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This should clear up impications that our current generation will not make it. This graph is assuming linear progress not exponential progress. I think immortality could be available to everyone by the 2080s. So I am optismistic about the future but I'm not counting on it.
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What is true, just, and beautiful is not determined by popular vote. The masses everywhere are ignorant, short-sighted, motivated by envy, and easy to fool. Democratic politicians must appeal to these masses in order to be elected. Whoever is the best demagogue will win. Almost by necessity, then, democracy will lead to the perversion of truth, justice and beauty. -Hans Hermann Hoppe


#45
Unrequited Lust

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linear progress not exponential progress

And there's the problem. Why should we expect linear progress in life expectancy when the technologies that enable it are undergoing exponential progress?

#46
Prolite

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linear progress not exponential progress

And there's the problem. Why should we expect linear progress in life expectancy when the technologies that enable it are undergoing exponential progress?


That's a good point. I have to disagree with Roh on this one. I think anti-aging technology at some point during this century, will render that graph incorrect.
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#47
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linear progress not exponential progress

And there's the problem. Why should we expect linear progress in life expectancy when the technologies that enable it are undergoing exponential progress?

The author of the blog assume that exponential growth would stop with the end of Moore's law. This is the worst case scenario.

What is true, just, and beautiful is not determined by popular vote. The masses everywhere are ignorant, short-sighted, motivated by envy, and easy to fool. Democratic politicians must appeal to these masses in order to be elected. Whoever is the best demagogue will win. Almost by necessity, then, democracy will lead to the perversion of truth, justice and beauty. -Hans Hermann Hoppe


#48
Unrequited Lust

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linear progress not exponential progress

And there's the problem. Why should we expect linear progress in life expectancy when the technologies that enable it are undergoing exponential progress?

The author of the blog assume that exponential growth would stop with the end of Moore's law. This is the worst case scenario.

Why in God's name would it stop at Moore's law? It didn't stop the last four paradigm shifts, why would is the imminent fifth one so special?

#49
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Once quantum simulators are fully realized and start analyzing our cells in amazing detail, I think we'll begin to see a lot of research regarding anti-aging at that point.
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#50
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SENS unprecedented progress in the past few years:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeExwzMSkHA

If ^this^ much is achievable in the infant few years of SENS, what is possible in the next 40?


It took 12 years for Aubrey De Grey to get this far.
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#51
Roh234

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linear progress not exponential progress

And there's the problem. Why should we expect linear progress in life expectancy when the technologies that enable it are undergoing exponential progress?

The author of the blog assume that exponential growth would stop with the end of Moore's law. This is the worst case scenario.

Why in God's name would it stop at Moore's law? It didn't stop the last four paradigm shifts, why would is the imminent fifth one so special?

What would be the fifth paradigm?

Graphene....
Quantam computers....

We don't have a viable option to switch to.

EDIT: I do believe exponential progress will remain, I'm just unsure what will carry it.

What is true, just, and beautiful is not determined by popular vote. The masses everywhere are ignorant, short-sighted, motivated by envy, and easy to fool. Democratic politicians must appeal to these masses in order to be elected. Whoever is the best demagogue will win. Almost by necessity, then, democracy will lead to the perversion of truth, justice and beauty. -Hans Hermann Hoppe


#52
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What would be the fifth paradigm?

Graphene....
Quantam computers....

We don't have a viable option to switch to.

EDIT: I do believe exponential progress will remain, I'm just unsure what will carry it.


Research in quantum computers is moving incredibly quick right now. It's because it's a matter of national security. Imagine if Iran, North Korea, Russia, or China built a quantum computer before everyone. The world would be so screwed lol.

Quantum simulators will allow scientists to simulate cellular processes in the body, not just simulate the universe.
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#53
Unrequited Lust

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SENS unprecedented progress in the past few years:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeExwzMSkHA

If ^this^ much is achievable in the infant few years of SENS, what is possible in the next 40?


It took 12 years for Aubrey De Grey to get this far.

The SENS foundation launched in 2009. It's been two years. Look at what SENS has accomplished in two years. It's amazing.

#54
Roh234

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SENS unprecedented progress in the past few years:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeExwzMSkHA

If ^this^ much is achievable in the infant few years of SENS, what is possible in the next 40?


It took 12 years for Aubrey De Grey to get this far.

http://en.wikipedia....SENS_Foundation

It was founded March 2009/

What is true, just, and beautiful is not determined by popular vote. The masses everywhere are ignorant, short-sighted, motivated by envy, and easy to fool. Democratic politicians must appeal to these masses in order to be elected. Whoever is the best demagogue will win. Almost by necessity, then, democracy will lead to the perversion of truth, justice and beauty. -Hans Hermann Hoppe


#55
Prolite

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SENS unprecedented progress in the past few years:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeExwzMSkHA

If ^this^ much is achievable in the infant few years of SENS, what is possible in the next 40?


It took 12 years for Aubrey De Grey to get this far.

The SENS foundation launched in 2009. It's been two years. Look at what SENS has accomplished in two years. It's amazing.



While the SENS foundation was founded in 2009, Aubrey De Grey's work and foundation(verb) of his organization started with his book "The Mitochondrial Free Radical Theory of Aging" published in 1999. On the basis of the book, the University of Cambridge awarded De Grey a PhD in 2000. His first talks appeared in 2003, at which point he allegedly began marketing his idea to the public, though I believe personally he probably started this process much earlier at the onslaught of his book. Marketing is brought on by selling, and namely, by the selling of Aubrey's book. But the process goes much deeper than that.

Even though De Grey is not a business owner; he owns an organization, and is a visionary - - sort of like Steve Jobs. Organizations operate very similarly to businesses, and there's proof of this approach in the video above (starting at 4:12), although any business owner would clearly see that this is obvious by the inherent nature of organizations and the processes by which they work. Like all organizations and businesses, the success of the entity starts at the moment of conception where the vision begins to be worked on. Therefore, I would strongly argue that Aubrey's Sens Foundation started at the writing of Aubrey's book, probably some time between 1996-1998, as it takes a few years to write a book. And as a business owner myself, a visionary, a leader, and the creator of something extraordinarily unique (and I'm not telling you who I am because this is my private corner of the internet), that Aubrey's work started at least 13 years ago, in order to get thus far.


Source:
http://en.wikipedia..../Aubrey_de_Grey
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#56
Zeitgeist123

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....i cant seem to google any technology that are being currently used by people now to halt the aging process of 2 months per year. anyone has a link about it? i just realized reading on the links of this thread that they are claiming we already have the technology to make our aging process halt 2 months per year. but i cant seem to google out any technology that i can buy/order to have that for myself. what exactly did they mean by that? seems like ray kurtzweil is doing nothing more than a lip service....

“Philosophy is a pretty toy if one indulges in it with moderation at the right time of life. But if one pursues it further than one should, it is absolute ruin." - Callicles to Socrates


#57
Unrequited Lust

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....i cant seem to google any technology that are being currently used by people now to halt the aging process of 2 months per year. anyone has a link about it?


i just realized reading on the links of this thread that they are claiming we already have the technology to make our aging process halt 2 months per year. but i cant seem to google out any technology that i can buy/order to have that for myself. what exactly did they mean by that? seems like ray kurtzweil is doing nothing more than a lip service....

He's talking about life expectancy. Look at life expectancy in the days without medicine. That's what our natural life expectancy is. Now we've been "adding" two months to each year, thus increasing our life expectancy. It's not longevity escape velocity because we still have 10 months to go.

#58
Roh234

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Wow....

$998 for sequencing the FULL HUMAN GENOME.

http://www.otogeneti...CFcdrKgodwkkWnw

What is true, just, and beautiful is not determined by popular vote. The masses everywhere are ignorant, short-sighted, motivated by envy, and easy to fool. Democratic politicians must appeal to these masses in order to be elected. Whoever is the best demagogue will win. Almost by necessity, then, democracy will lead to the perversion of truth, justice and beauty. -Hans Hermann Hoppe


#59
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Well, once the ability to transfer digitally occurs, the differentiation between the human population and that of computers will blur. Eventually, AI's and humans may inhabit shared bodies, or constantly be able to change the body they reside in, if they choose any at all. Living in cyberspace via virtual reality could also be an option.

#60
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Well, once the ability to transfer digitally occurs, the differentiation between the human population and that of computers will blur. Eventually, AI's and humans may inhabit shared bodies, or constantly be able to change the body they reside in, if they choose any at all. Living in cyberspace via virtual reality could also be an option.


Okay, you are showing signs of obsession with this topic, which is fine, but nobody alive today is going to have not even a slight chance of uploading their mind to a machine and expect to live forever. Just get that thought out of your mind dude lol. :banghead:
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