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Is the United States a hyperpower?


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Poll: Is the United States a hyperpower? (43 member(s) have cast votes)

Do you think the USA is a hyperpower?

  1. Yes (12 votes [27.91%])

    Percentage of vote: 27.91%

  2. Voted No (18 votes [41.86%])

    Percentage of vote: 41.86%

  3. Depends on what the qualifications of a hyperpower are.. (13 votes [30.23%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.23%

Do you think China will overtake the United States in importance throughout the world?

  1. Yes (25 votes [58.14%])

    Percentage of vote: 58.14%

  2. No (8 votes [18.60%])

    Percentage of vote: 18.60%

  3. Voted Possibly (10 votes [23.26%])

    Percentage of vote: 23.26%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#81
FutureOfToday

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Give this a good read as well: http://www.imf.org/e...01/pdf/text.pdf

#82
Lunix688

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..But the USA has a population of 317 million yet ranks very highly on that list. Why? We have a large economy.

Its just a factor, not a reliable list for power indication.  You can argue the fact China has such a large workforce, cheap labor, large population, etc, makes it viable for it to have such a large economy.


"Liberterianism is a mental disease. A national health crisis and a threat to the future of this country...Worse than the threat from terrorism, asteroids, disease and yes global warming.
It is mindless anti-government idiocy. If it isn't turned back I predict the end of this country as a world power. Simply put the need to educate our entire population like any sane country is sen as wrong by the cult that practice this foolish idiocy. So is simple workers rights, child labor and every other sane policy of the modern world."
-Matthew
 
"The man who does not value himself, cannot value anything or anyone.”
-Ayn Rand, The Virtue of Selfishness: A New Concept of Egoism
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
"The world runs on individuals pursuing their self interests. The great achievements of civilization have not come from government bureaus. Einstein didn't construct his theory under order from a, from a bureaucrat. Henry Ford didn't revolutionize the automobile industry that way."
-Milton Friedman
 
 

 


#83
FutureOfToday

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The USA is only the 3rd largest country in the world, and is #1 on the list. China is THE LARGEST country in the world, and is #2 on the list. Do the maths.

#84
FutureOfToday

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More sources here: http://www.theguardi...mf-economy-2016

#85
Lunix688

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This little game can go on and on. I can find hundreds of sources to say the USA will not fall behind China, and vice versa. I myself do not think that will happen, and nobody here is "right" or "wrong", its predictions. 


"Liberterianism is a mental disease. A national health crisis and a threat to the future of this country...Worse than the threat from terrorism, asteroids, disease and yes global warming.
It is mindless anti-government idiocy. If it isn't turned back I predict the end of this country as a world power. Simply put the need to educate our entire population like any sane country is sen as wrong by the cult that practice this foolish idiocy. So is simple workers rights, child labor and every other sane policy of the modern world."
-Matthew
 
"The man who does not value himself, cannot value anything or anyone.”
-Ayn Rand, The Virtue of Selfishness: A New Concept of Egoism
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
"The world runs on individuals pursuing their self interests. The great achievements of civilization have not come from government bureaus. Einstein didn't construct his theory under order from a, from a bureaucrat. Henry Ford didn't revolutionize the automobile industry that way."
-Milton Friedman
 
 

 


#86
FutureOfToday

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Okay, let's agree to disagree. Right now, we're discussing a future event, so neither of us are "right" or "wrong". The only way to truly determine what will happen is to let the time pass. EDIT: You pretty much posted the same thing while I was typing. I agree completely.

#87
Lunix688

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Also one last point

China does not export culture.

The USA does.

 

When was the last time you heard of a Chinese movie coming to cinema's near you?

When was the last time you heard of a American made movie coming to a cinema near you?  

China does not innovate

They copy

 

The USA is at the moment, the undisputed capital of innovation. With companies like Apple, Microsoft, GE, Facebook, Exxon, Chevron, Tesla Motors, etc


"Liberterianism is a mental disease. A national health crisis and a threat to the future of this country...Worse than the threat from terrorism, asteroids, disease and yes global warming.
It is mindless anti-government idiocy. If it isn't turned back I predict the end of this country as a world power. Simply put the need to educate our entire population like any sane country is sen as wrong by the cult that practice this foolish idiocy. So is simple workers rights, child labor and every other sane policy of the modern world."
-Matthew
 
"The man who does not value himself, cannot value anything or anyone.”
-Ayn Rand, The Virtue of Selfishness: A New Concept of Egoism
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
"The world runs on individuals pursuing their self interests. The great achievements of civilization have not come from government bureaus. Einstein didn't construct his theory under order from a, from a bureaucrat. Henry Ford didn't revolutionize the automobile industry that way."
-Milton Friedman
 
 

 


#88
Ewan

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The China doesn't innovate point isn't really fair anymore Lunix, they invest huge amounts in R&D and most certainly do push science forwards. The main driving force for American innovation is the amount of available funding and quality research institutions. Alarmingly more money is becoming available abroad and the USA is starting to lose its edge in that regard. It is the same in the UK, most of the researchers at the top UK universities aren't English, they're foreign and are drawn here due to the prestige and funding opportunities. These people could just as easily go to China or elsewhere. 

 

I also think it's naive to suggest other countries do not have large corporations that innovate. I think it is just a case of them being out of your sphere of interest & you obviously don't hear about them on the news with them being foreign. For instance have you ever heard of a website called VK.com? They're a social network with 228 million users, but you would never hear about them unless you were from one of the countries they are popular in. What about Tenchant QQ? They have 800 million active accounts but again you probably won't hear about them. 


  • IzzyIngleby and FutureOfToday like this

#89
Futurist

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Now the question we're discussing here is has America waned in influence (militarily or economically) relative to other countries especially China?

 

Here is actually nothing to discuss:

 

Posted Image

 

...perhaps a bit later than in 2017, but anyway it's just a matter of time. Military influence will also grow with China getting richer and richer.

I prefer using nominal GDP or PPP GDP, which would place the time period when China's economy overtakes the U.S.'s economy between 2025 and 2030.



#90
Cody930

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GDP per capita is not a good indicator at all, because it only takes into account how well a country is doing in relation to that country's population, instead of the country as a whole. The smaller the country, the smaller the "rich population" it requires to get higher up the list. China is the largest country in the world, so having the second largest GDP in the world is a huge indicator of a country that is doing well. http://www.ft.com/cm...l#axzz2jQfnQwDY

 

Swaziland has ~1 million people and Luxembourg has about 500,000 people. Still a 500k difference but pretty close enough that they're not terribly different like the US and China for instance. So now let's take what you're saying about small countries and apply it. Swaziland has a GDP per capita of rougly $5,000 (#112 according to the World Bank) and Luxembourg has nearly 20 times that at #1. Both small, low population land-locked nations with still very different circumstances. 


"Since we first emerged, a few million years ago in East Africa, we have meandered our way around the planet. There are now people on every continent and the remotest islands, from pole to pole, from Mount Everest to the Dead Sea, on the ocean bottoms and even, occasionally, in residence 200 miles up - humans, like the gods of old, living in the sky."


#91
monsta666

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The US is still a superpower but its power is declining if taken in terms of % of GDP over the world. Also it should be noted that for most of the population wages have basically flat-lined since the 1980s in the US with worker productivity not rising in line with wages. This in effect means that each American today is working harder today to achieve the same real wage as they did yesterday. Most of the gains, in real terms, have gone to the richest segment of American society so what you get is increasing inequality over this time period. Higher inequality leads to greater social tension and can sometimes be seen as leading indicator of a society that will decline rapidly in the future. I do consider the US to be an empire of sorts and like all empires in the past these things collapse.

 

As for China, while the official numbers suggest rapid growth some caution must be given to the numbers provided as quite often these figures are "adjusted" for political reasons. While there can be little doubt China has grown rapidly and will continue to grow in the near future we must question whether the rate of growth is as high as those figures state. Another issue with China is the impact and damage they are inflicting on their environment to achieve this growth. Sooner or later if these environmental issues are not addressed then they will pay dearly for damaging the environment. The other issue is demographics. The one child policy offered the Chinese a 30 year window where the working population in relation to total population was very high however the off shot of this is that their population is ageing very rapidly. Faster than Europe.

 

This leads to the problem that China may grow old before it grows rich and since China does not have a well established social security system this could pose major problems in the coming decades especially if you consider the full impacts of maintaining a one child policy as soon one grandchild will have to support four grandparents. These issues are not even so far in the future as it is expected that the total working population is likely to peak in this decade and decline thereafter. Any gains in total output will have to come primarily from productivity gains and not growing working populations. While some easy gains can be achieved by moving more farmers to the cities I feel those gains have largely been exhausted meaning most of the easy growth is over. Moreover once per capita income reaches a certain threshold China will face the danger of the middle-income trap were it becomes cheaper to outsource labour to other developing countries like Bangladesh etc. or worse yet automate many of the factory jobs currently held in China. These issues of outsourcing/automation will be worse if there is further stagnation in Europe/US which are China's main export markets.

 

What we also need to consider is that resources and energy are finite and at some point growth of economies will come to an end. It is this reason why I cannot foresee China becoming the new superpower as the world is literally not big enough to accommodate the US and China as major powers. We are already consuming various critical resources at non-sustainable rates with fish stocks, topsoil, water aquifers, phosphate mines and potash stocks being depleted to support current consumption rates. These resource depletion issues can only get worse if the economies of the world continue to grow. There is only so much that technology can do to mitigate these resource depletion issues as they only buy time and do not offer long-term solutions. To understand why that is case you need to understand the maths of exponential growth. Furthermore if you understand the second of law of thermodynamics and how it relates to the law of entropy you will find that more complex technology means you are fighting against entropy. 



#92
bloodymary

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US is not a hyperpower neither will it be in the future because considering future events it will harm rather then help us since i living in the US. Also consider this while it is most definite that china will indeed surpass the US in GDP considering there population. But remember having a large population is a double edged sword because you must sustain them. Also remember they have a massive environment problem that needs solving but is growing with each passing day and a debt that is rapidly closing in to US levels. These two factors will crush them the longer they delay fixing these two especially the environment problem. Since fixing the environment is a extremely costly matter. This is where US trumps China because the US doesn't have an environment problem like them.



#93
ralfy

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The financial elite and the military gain from military intervention, etc. The public is saddled with war costs.

 

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is weakening due to increasing debt, while police and military are now acting aggressively towards the public.

 

Given these, it's likely that the outcome will not be pretty:

 

http://www.shtfplan....-world_08102011

 

I don't agree with the conclusion given in the title, but the points raised are notable.



#94
bloodymary

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No if you look at the trade deficit caused by what you mentioned i remember reading it fell 34% just this year alone. Some people have said it is mostly due too budget cuts which i say is wrong. If anything it's mostly due too shale oil and gas and the ripple effects it's having on the US economy finally being felt. Remember you also have too look at the decreased imports which also contributions hugely too cutting costs across the board and various other things like jobs being created directly impacted by fracking and indirectly. This is only on top of 3d printing which has just entered into the metal ages recently said. But i'll just take a wait and see attitude since things are extremely unpredictable so i won't try really.



#95
tw88

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as monsta666 pointed out, China could very well hit a brick wall, and already has to some extent - the days of 10% annual economic growth are over for China.  China will likely over take the US in terms of the size of their economy. However, the US is likely to become much more economically integrated with the EU as they are working out a free trade agreement right now and China is unlikely to over take the combined size of the EU and North American economy.  I am doubtful that they will over take the US in terms of  military, political and cultural influence. The U.S. already has a global military presence, that basically crowds China out from doing the same, and so long as China has a 1984 styled government, the international community and global population will not hold their opinions and views on international affairs  and their cultural beliefs and practices in as high esteem as the US, UK and their respected allies. Also China is likely to be superseded economically by India, which aligns  it  self much more closely with western countries than it does with eastern ones, it is respected much more so in terms of their government and culture than China,  and does have a history of exporting culture like the US (think Buddhism, yoga, harry Kristina ect.) and has a large English speaking population which positions it self to have more influence culturally. In short, the cards are stacked against China to become a super power in the same way that the US is, at best they will be the worlds largest economic zone for a period of time. 



#96
IzzyIngleby

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I would like to point out that Russia is the largest country by land area, not China! "Largest country" in the world only gets awarded to China by population, which is pretty unituitive.

 

By Total (Land and Sea) Area:

1. Russia (17.1m km2)

2. Canada (10.0m km2)

3. China (9.64m km2)

4. USA (9.63m km2)

 

http://en.wikipedia....dencies_by_area

 

By Population:

1. China (1.35b)

2. India (1.25b)

3. EU (500m)  The continent of Europe: 800m

4. US (300m)

 

http://en.wikipedia....s_by_population

 

And what really matters to this debate...

 

By GDP (from IMF):

1. EU ($16.7m)

2. US ($16.2m)

3. China ($8.22m)

4. Japan ($5.96m)

 

http://en.wikipedia....y_GDP_(nominal)

 

Apologies for the grammar nazisim lolz.



#97
GenX

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I would think that in order to be a hyperpower, then the mere fact that you are a hyperpower would be relatively beyond dispute.  Kind of like saying that the US is a better place to live then Somalia.  Virtually no one would disagree.  So I wouldn't say that the US is a hyperpower.  I would say that it is the leading super power, but it is definitely in decline, due to it's national debt and deficit, government gridlock due to hyperpartisanship, and income dispartiy.  However, even saying all that, is there a superpower in the world that is better?  China might not have goverment gridlock because they have a dictatorial government, and right now they might not have any debt (don't know if they have a spending deficit or not), however they use a lot of very questionable tactics (including printing too much money) to keep themselves debt free, and are subject to hyperinflationism at any time. 

 

In the end however, I think most people define superpower and hyperpower by the ability to win wars.  It's hard to say what would happen if the US went to war with China because of the sheer volume of people that China has.  If it escalated into a nuclear war then no one wins. 


The only thing we ever want is more


#98
ralfy

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The U.S. is a reserve currency economy, heavily reliant on increasing debt and increasing war costs passed on to the public. That is why it went through more than three decades of trade deficits and increasing debt across the board. Such borrowing and spending will not last.



#99
tw88

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In the end however, I think most people define superpower and hyperpower by the ability to win wars.  It's hard to say what would happen if the US went to war with China because of the sheer volume of people that China has.  If it escalated into a nuclear war then no one wins. 

China does have a huge population, but I see population numbers being less relevant than technological capabilities as drones and other man-less war technologies become the future of war



#100
GenX

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In the end however, I think most people define superpower and hyperpower by the ability to win wars.  It's hard to say what would happen if the US went to war with China because of the sheer volume of people that China has.  If it escalated into a nuclear war then no one wins. 

China does have a huge population, but I see population numbers being less relevant than technological capabilities as drones and other man-less war technologies become the future of war

 

Until some 12-year old Chinese whiz kid figures out how to hack into our systems and takes control of all of our drones and turns them against us...


The only thing we ever want is more





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