Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!

These ads will disappear if you register on the forum

Photo

Future of Crimea


  • Please log in to reply
146 replies to this topic

#1
Futurist

Futurist

    Aspiring cross-dresser

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,802 posts
  • LocationSouthern California, United States of America, Planet Earth

What do all of you here think the future of Crimea will be, including after Putin leaves office and/or dies and after Russia becomes fully democratic (with serious political competition, et cetera)?



#2
SaulNeuroscience

SaulNeuroscience

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 16 posts
  • LocationUS

What do all of you here think the future of Crimea will be, including after Putin leaves office and/or dies and after Russia becomes fully democratic (with serious political competition, et cetera)?

Crimea will remain with Russia, Putin is intending on creating the Eurasian Union with Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Tajikistan. Some liken this to the USSR 2.0 except without the exportation of ideology, There is a chance Eastern Ukraine( Russia Areas) joins it. Russia will not be a full democracy anytime soon or with putin leaving/death another strongman will simply take over. Nationalism in Russia is rising, Russians want a strong Russia.

 

Posted Image


  • Italian Ufo likes this

#3
Futurist

Futurist

    Aspiring cross-dresser

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,802 posts
  • LocationSouthern California, United States of America, Planet Earth

 

What do all of you here think the future of Crimea will be, including after Putin leaves office and/or dies and after Russia becomes fully democratic (with serious political competition, et cetera)?

1. Crimea will remain with Russia,

 

2. Putin is intending on creating the Eurasian Union with Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Tajikistan. Some liken this to the USSR 2.0 except without the exportation of ideology, There is a chance Eastern Ukraine( Russia Areas) joins it.

 

3. Russia will not be a full democracy anytime soon or with putin leaving/death another strongman will simply take over. Nationalism in Russia is rising, Russians want a strong Russia.

 

1. For the time being, Yes.

 

That said, I am skeptical that many, if any, countries will recognize Russia's annexation of the Crimea.

 

2. Yes, I heard about this, but I am extremely skeptical that Putin or anyone else can turn this into a political union like the USSR was.

 

3. I don't know about that--after all, people's attitudes do sometimes/often change over time.



#4
SaulNeuroscience

SaulNeuroscience

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 16 posts
  • LocationUS

 

 

What do all of you here think the future of Crimea will be, including after Putin leaves office and/or dies and after Russia becomes fully democratic (with serious political competition, et cetera)?

1. Crimea will remain with Russia,

 

2. Putin is intending on creating the Eurasian Union with Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Tajikistan. Some liken this to the USSR 2.0 except without the exportation of ideology, There is a chance Eastern Ukraine( Russia Areas) joins it.

 

3. Russia will not be a full democracy anytime soon or with putin leaving/death another strongman will simply take over. Nationalism in Russia is rising, Russians want a strong Russia.

 

1. For the time being, Yes.

 

That said, I am skeptical that many, if any, countries will recognize Russia's annexation of the Crimea.

 

2. Yes, I heard about this, but I am extremely skeptical that Putin or anyone else can turn this into a political union like the USSR was.

 

3. I don't know about that--after all, people's attitudes do sometimes/often change over time.

 

 

1. As long as Russia sees noting matters remember South Ossetia and Abkhazia. During the cold war the west did not recognize the baltics states as part of the USSR.

 

2. We will have to see, Single Currency and Single Military command are in talks 2015-2020.

 

3. The best time to reach out to Russians was the 90's as you know many blame Yeltsin who was seen as a pro western leader, Russians are wary of being to close to the west. Could happen or not.



#5
Mashallah

Mashallah

    Transgender student

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,332 posts
  • LocationSerbia

What do all of you here think the future of Crimea will be, including after Putin leaves office and/or dies and after Russia becomes fully democratic (with serious political competition, et cetera)?

 

I know one thing for certain: it'll be better off than if it stayed in Ukraine.

A tiny bit of data to put this in perspective: It was relatively well off in USSR, but today it is TWO TIMES POORER per capita than the poorest region of Russian Federation.


  • Futurist likes this

I don't like being lied to, but I'm also tired of The Truth.

Man cannot remake himself without suffering, for he is both the marble and the sculptor.


#6
TheComrade

TheComrade

    BANNED

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,642 posts

Since i don't know what is "fully democratic" (sounds too foggy for me), i'll just describe the nearest future as i see it:

 

2014-2016 - Transitional period. Reform of Crimean financial and legal systems to bring them in line with Russians ones. Increasing of salaries and pensions up to Russian standards (i.e. they'll become 2-3 times bigger... yeah, that's why even the majority of local Ukrainians and many of Tatars voted for joining Russia)

 

after 2016 - Massive investments into Crimean tourist sector. Improving of living standards... actually, Crimea have wery good chances to become one of richest regions of Russia instead of poorest today (thanks to 23 years of Ukrainian administration). Construction of Kerch Strait Bridge (http://en.wikipedia....h_Strait_Bridge) to expand communication of Crimea with mainland Russia and make it independent from Ukraine.

 

20(?) - some future Ukrainian government will finally accept the reality and sign a new border treaty with Russia.


  • Futurist likes this

#7
Futurist

Futurist

    Aspiring cross-dresser

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,802 posts
  • LocationSouthern California, United States of America, Planet Earth

1. Since i don't know what is "fully democratic" (sounds too foggy for me), i'll just describe the nearest future as i see it:

 

2. 2014-2016 - Transitional period. Reform of Crimean financial and legal systems to bring them in line with Russians ones. Increasing of salaries and pensions up to Russian standards (i.e. they'll become 2-3 times bigger... yeah, that's why even the majority of local Ukrainians and many of Tatars voted for joining Russia)

 

3. after 2016 - Massive investments into Crimean tourist sector. Improving of living standards... actually, Crimea have very good chances to become one of richest regions of Russia instead of poorest today (thanks to 23 years of Ukrainian administration). Construction of Kerch Strait Bridge (http://en.wikipedia....h_Strait_Bridge) to expand communication of Crimea with mainland Russia and make it independent from Ukraine.

 

4. 20(?) - some future Ukrainian government will finally accept the reality and sign a new border treaty with Russia.

1. "Fully democratic" means that Russia will actually have a political situation where more than one political party can realistically gain power.

 

2. This is very possible.

 

3. This is also very possible.

 

4. I don't see this happening without another referendum in the Crimea which will be monitored by independent, UN observers. As for such a referendum occurring, I don't see it occurring under Putin, but it might occur under another Russian leader after Putin dies and/or leaves power.



#8
Futurist

Futurist

    Aspiring cross-dresser

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,802 posts
  • LocationSouthern California, United States of America, Planet Earth

 

What do all of you here think the future of Crimea will be, including after Putin leaves office and/or dies and after Russia becomes fully democratic (with serious political competition, et cetera)?

 

1. I know one thing for certain: it'll be better off than if it stayed in Ukraine.

 

2. A tiny bit of data to put this in perspective: It was relatively well off in USSR, but today it is TWO TIMES POORER per capita than the poorest region of Russian Federation.

1. Very possibly, but of course, it is worth noting that Ukraine might now try to significantly clean up its act as well with the help of the EU and/or of the US.

 

2. So even Russian regions such as Chechnya are 2+ times wealthier per capita than Crimea is?



#9
Italian Ufo

Italian Ufo

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,190 posts

it will still be under Russia. 



#10
tw88

tw88

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 304 posts
  • Locationeugene oregon

I think Crimea will stay with Russia.  I'm no expert of the History of Crimea, but from what I understand its an area that has traditionally been Russian for almost 200 years prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Additionally, the people of Crimea voted overwhelmingly in favor of leaving the Ukraine. I haven't read or heard anything about Russia rigging the election, so I am a bit bewildered by the outage the international community is having over this.   I am not really sure why Russia invaded as I believe the ballot measure for Crimea to leave the Ukraine  was already expected to gain strong support prior to Russia Invading. I think there would be a lot more support of Crimea's decision to leave the Ukraine if Russia had not invaded, as this would give the appearance of a people choosing their sovereignty, where as Russia invading Crimea made it look like Russia was taking advantage of the political situation in the Ukraine to steal Crimea. 



#11
Mashallah

Mashallah

    Transgender student

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,332 posts
  • LocationSerbia

 

 

What do all of you here think the future of Crimea will be, including after Putin leaves office and/or dies and after Russia becomes fully democratic (with serious political competition, et cetera)?

 

1. I know one thing for certain: it'll be better off than if it stayed in Ukraine.

 

2. A tiny bit of data to put this in perspective: It was relatively well off in USSR, but today it is TWO TIMES POORER per capita than the poorest region of Russian Federation.

1. Very possibly, but of course, it is worth noting that Ukraine might now try to significantly clean up its act as well with the help of the EU and/or of the US.

 

2. So even Russian regions such as Chechnya are 2+ times wealthier per capita than Crimea is?

 

 

1. Let's list the things Ukrainian new government did ABSOLUTELY wrong: -Ukrainians gastarbeiting in Russia and sending money back home added up to about 12% of Ukraine's GDP, yet their government decided to, for some reason, make visas a requirement to travel between the two countries. Somehow I doubt that Moscow will react to this by giving away work visas to everyone, so this change will hurt their economy.

-In order to cut ties with Russia even further, Ukraine decided to buy gas from Germany instead of Russia. The plot twist? Germany will sell only Russian gas back to Ukraine, so this change still leaves them dependent on Russia while makes discounts on gas virtually impossible and additionally raises the prices by adding the middleman.

-They decided to EU Associate as soon as possible while EU Association is known for killing underdeveloped economies and Ukraine is quite literally on the level of Sub-Saharan Africa in per capita terms.

-They also decided to take an IMF loan and those usually heavily hurt the general population.

-At the same time, they decided to double the income tax in order to increase the military spending.

 

All in all, I don't see how this can result in anything but a perpetual civil war.

 

2. Yes, IIRC, the average wage in Russia's poorest region was around 500$ per month, while Crimea, which isn't even Ukraine's poorest region, had the average wage of 288$ per month.


  • Futurist likes this

I don't like being lied to, but I'm also tired of The Truth.

Man cannot remake himself without suffering, for he is both the marble and the sculptor.


#12
Mashallah

Mashallah

    Transgender student

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,332 posts
  • LocationSerbia

I think Crimea will stay with Russia.  I'm no expert of the History of Crimea, but from what I understand its an area that has traditionally been Russian for almost 200 years prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Additionally, the people of Crimea voted overwhelmingly in favor of leaving the Ukraine. I haven't read or heard anything about Russia rigging the election, so I am a bit bewildered by the outage the international community is having over this.  [color=#ff0000;] I am not really sure why Russia invaded as I believe the ballot measure for Crimea to leave the Ukraine  was already expected to gain strong support prior to Russia Invading. [/color]I think there would be a lot more support of Crimea's decision to leave the Ukraine if Russia had not invaded, as this would give the appearance of a people choosing their sovereignty, where as Russia invading Crimea made it look like Russia was taking advantage of the political situation in the Ukraine to steal Crimea. 

 

Such referendums are illegal according to Ukraine's constitution and their government simply wouldn't allow it if it wasn't backed by Russia.


I don't like being lied to, but I'm also tired of The Truth.

Man cannot remake himself without suffering, for he is both the marble and the sculptor.


#13
TheComrade

TheComrade

    BANNED

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,642 posts

 

4. I don't see this happening without another referendum in the Crimea which will be monitored by independent, UN observers. As for such a referendum occurring, I don't see it occurring under Putin, but it might occur under another Russian leader after Putin dies and/or leaves power.

 

No problem. I suspect any future referendum will show roughly the same results, just because 1) more than half of population are Russians 2) Ukraine is 2-3 times poorer than Russia and given the current situation, this gap will only grow 3) Modern generation of Ukrainians are deeply poisoned by ultra-nationalism. They will hardly ever coexist with other peoples. Modern Ukrainian schoolchildren:

 

 

 

 

"One language! One nation! One Fatherland! This is Ukraine! Russians - to gallows! Who aren't jumping - is Russian" (everyone jumping). Nice kids, huh? People must be beyond mad to live with them under one roof.



#14
Bradley

Bradley

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 862 posts
  • LocationSeattle, WA

 

 

4. I don't see this happening without another referendum in the Crimea which will be monitored by independent, UN observers. As for such a referendum occurring, I don't see it occurring under Putin, but it might occur under another Russian leader after Putin dies and/or leaves power.

 

 

"One language! One nation! One Fatherland! This is Ukraine! Russians - to gallows! Who aren't jumping - is Russian" (everyone jumping). Nice kids, huh? People must be beyond mad to live with them under one roof.

 

 

Kind of looks like the old Nashi youth rallies. 



#15
TheComrade

TheComrade

    BANNED

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,642 posts

Kind of looks like the old Nashi youth rallies. 

 

The only difference is that Nashi didn't shout "let's send _insertnationhere_ to gallows!"



#16
Futurist

Futurist

    Aspiring cross-dresser

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,802 posts
  • LocationSouthern California, United States of America, Planet Earth

 

 

4. I don't see this happening without another referendum in the Crimea which will be monitored by independent, UN observers. As for such a referendum occurring, I don't see it occurring under Putin, but it might occur under another Russian leader after Putin dies and/or leaves power.

 

No problem. I suspect any future referendum will show roughly the same results, just because 1) more than half of population are Russians 2) Ukraine is 2-3 times poorer than Russia and given the current situation, this gap will only grow 3) Modern generation of Ukrainians are deeply poisoned by ultra-nationalism. They will hardly ever coexist with other peoples. Modern Ukrainian schoolchildren:

 

 

 

 

"One language! One nation! One Fatherland! This is Ukraine! Russians - to gallows! Who aren't jumping - is Russian" (everyone jumping). Nice kids, huh? People must be beyond mad to live with them under one roof.

Yeah, if Russia will successfully manage to (significantly) improve the economy, infrastructure, et cetera of Crimea, and if Russia will treat the Crimean population well (regardless of their ethnicity), then I would agree with you that Russia will probably win a UN-monitored referendum in Crimea in several decades even if Ukraine successfully manages to fully "put its house in order" by that point in time.



#17
Bradley

Bradley

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 862 posts
  • LocationSeattle, WA

 

Kind of looks like the old Nashi youth rallies. 

 

The only difference is that Nashi didn't shout "let's send _insertnationhere_ to gallows!"

 

 

Nashi had militant members. They beat up journalists, among other things. The only question was how high up the chain the militant members went. 



#18
MarcZ

MarcZ

    Chief Flying Car Critic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,271 posts
  • LocationCanada

 

What do all of you here think the future of Crimea will be, including after Putin leaves office and/or dies and after Russia becomes fully democratic (with serious political competition, et cetera)?

Crimea will remain with Russia, Putin is intending on creating the Eurasian Union with Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Tajikistan. Some liken this to the USSR 2.0 except without the exportation of ideology, There is a chance Eastern Ukraine( Russia Areas) joins it. Russia will not be a full democracy anytime soon or with putin leaving/death another strongman will simply take over. Nationalism in Russia is rising, Russians want a strong Russia.

 

Posted Image

 

 

No way in hell are the Baltics joining lol. Russia doesn't have the ability to try to coerce them in now that they are in NATO they are solidly in the Western sphere of influence. Majority of the population in the Baltics, especially in Estonia have seen a huge jump in quality of life since they gained independence. I suppose if Russia really wanted to start tensions with the West they could stir up shit in the Estonian city of Narva, although any military action against the Baltics would almost certainly start WWIII. I also will remain skeptical about Kyrgyzstan, I have a feeling the Kyrgyz are going to try to remain relatively independent from the foreign powers of Russia, China, and the West and may even allow itself to become a geopolitical (not literal battlefield) between the three to try to encourage the three to invest in it. Has nice mineral resources too that Canada and China have been investing in recently.

 

Edit: Also curious to why Armenia is omitted from the above map as they have already said they are joining the Eurasian Union.


  • Futurist likes this

#19
KomissarBojantchev

KomissarBojantchev

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 214 posts

Keep in mind that the eurasian union is completly different from the supposed media description of "evil ruskies forcing progressive democracies into puppets" Its voluntary cooperation between countries. Russia won't coerce anyone since it would be diplomatic suicide and besides the russians dont have any interest in the baltic states(the overwhelming opinion in russia portrays them as big mouthed nazi sympathising charlatans that act like they're much more important just because they're US allies). Contrary to popular opinion, most potential CIS eurasian union mebers have good enough reasons of their own to join it  .



#20
TheComrade

TheComrade

    BANNED

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,642 posts

Offtopic:

 

Russia will probably win a UN-monitored referendum in Crimea in several decades even if Ukraine successfully manages to fully "put its house in order" by that point in time.

 

Majority of the population in the Baltics, especially in Estonia have seen a huge jump in quality of life since they gained independence.

 

...so, a few words about who is rich and who is poor. The more that i just found a new interesting toy called "google public data". First about Ukraine. Regadrles of future regime (democratic, quasi-democratic, nationalist, neo-nazi, hybrid of them all) Ukraine have no a slightest chance to catch up Russia in the foreseeable future. Here is GDP per capita of BRUK (Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan) - four main post-Soviet states:

 

Posted Image

 

...as you can see, Ukraine is almost hopeless. Now, let's take a look at Russia compared to Baltic states:

 

Posted Image

 

Almost no difference. I really failed to understand why Russia is still "Third world" while Baltic dwarfs are "Advanced economies".

Now Russia's place in BRICS:

 

Posted Image

 

Not bad at all... and finally, Russia compared to PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) group:

 

Posted Image

 

One of first Putin's promises (when he came to power in 1999) was to "catch up at least the poorest countries of EU". Almost done, though i must admit, these countries "have helped" us, falling into stagnation (Portugal, Spain, Italy) or decline (Greece).






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users