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Charts, Graphs, and Statistics Of The Future

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#421
Yuli Ban

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#422
Yuli Ban

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#423
Yuli Ban

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#424
Yuli Ban

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I've been watching augmented reality slowly creep further and further to the right. In 2005, it was listed as "5 to 10 years", but they wizened up and pushed it out to "10+ years" in 2006. Virtual reality barely registered at all until 2013, at which point it was already deep in the trough. It was also listed as "5 to 10 years" right up until 2017, which is when the prediction became "reaches plateau of productivity within 2 to 5 years".

 

Right on time for CV2 Oculus Rift and Vive.


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#425
Zaphod

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https://en.wikipedia...ket_competition



#426
wjfox

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#427
Yuli Ban

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Huh, I could've sworn I heard that the US population would reach 400 million by 2039. When did it move so far back?


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#428
Yuli Ban

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#429
Yuli Ban

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#430
Yuli Ban

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The chart shows the total amount of compute, in petaflop/s-days, that was used to train selected results that are relatively well known, used a lot of compute for their time, and gave enough information to estimate the compute used. A petaflop/s-day (pfs-day) consists of performing 1015 neural net operations per second for one day, or a total of about 1020 operations. The compute-time product serves as a mental convenience, similar to kW-hr for energy. We don’t measure peak theoretical FLOPS of the hardware but instead try to estimate the number of actual operations performed. We count adds and multiplies as separate operations, we count any add or multiply as a single operation regardless of numerical precision (making “FLOP” a slight misnomer), and we ignore ensemble models. Example calculations that went into this graph are provided in this appendix. Doubling time for line of best fit shown is 3.43 months.

Source


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#431
Yuli Ban

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#432
Alislaws

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Huh, I could've sworn I heard that the US population would reach 400 million by 2039. When did it move so far back?

Change in Immigration trends/predictions due to current events? 



#433
Yuli Ban

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Here's Gartner's Hype Cycle for 2018!

Hype-Cycle-for-Emerging-Tech-2018.png

 

For the first time since these were first being made in the 1990s, virtual reality isn't even on it— it's all the way past the plateau of productivity and is just a part of life now, much like speech recognition, predictive analytics, microblogging, electronic paper, VoIP, and text-to-speech before it. 

Augmented reality hasn't budged, as expected. Without AR headsets, AR as a technology won't be going anywhere. And without an easy way to use AR headsets that isn't obtrusive, they won't sell well.

 

I see autonomous vehicles is falling towards the trough of disillusionment. That, too, is expected. We had our first no-catch death by AV earlier this year and various services are finding it harder to put them on the street than expected. Not infinitely harder like those trying to create AGI in the 1960s when the fastest computer ran at a few kiloflops, but it's definitely not something we should expect to see in the 2010s. I do think it's not right to say they're 10+ years out, though. That's more for level 5 AVs, which are still barely up the peak at all. 

I also notice deep neural networks are expected to reach a plateau of productivity in about two to five years. Yes, it's the funniest thing for those who have been watching deep learning eat the world over the past five years— for all that hype, deep learning is still an experimental technology that hasn't seen an overwhelmingly wide range of real-world applications yet. It's one reason why so many say that the doomsayers and prophets of an incoming AI Winter are deluded— even if all AI progress stopped tomorrow, we'd have a century's worth of productivity to unpack. Expect deep neural networks to really start showing what they can do in the early 2020s. 

 

Another new sight: flying autonomous vehicles. Passenger drones are on the hype cycle! Yeah, I agree that they're still a decade or two out from being a well-integrated part of the economy as an industry. 

 

Blockchain has also passed the peak of inflated expectations. This sounds about right. The 2010s will forever be known as the wild west years of cryptocurrency, that glorious decade when there were no rules, millionaires were made and broken overnight, anyone and their dogs created their own currency, regulation was non-existent, and the future seemed to extend infinitely in every direction. Blockchain, by itself, represents a revolution in decentralization.  

 

The one that confuses me is the difference between "autonomous mobile robots" and "smart robots." What's the difference? They're both smart and preferably mobile. Is it like the difference between level 4 and 5 AVs?


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#434
qasem66

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thats right . I agree with you 

 

 

actually noting is predictable and ongoing progression in technology is a main factor. 

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