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Charts, Graphs, and Statistics Of The Future

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#441
funkervogt

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Its not crowded in the USA by any sane definition of the word crowded. 

 

In a few dense urban areas sure, but that happens in all big cities, everyone wants to live close to the centre and so it gets crowded.

 

https://en.wikipedia...lation_density 

 

USA is 191/250 on this list. 

 

The entire human population spread over the whole land area of the world (excluding Antarctica) gives a population density of 57 people per km^2 compared to the USA's 33/km^2

 

The UK, which, (outside the major cities) is not particularly crowded has 272/km^2 for reference of what a built up country looks like. 

 

The Netherlands, which is mostly Urban areas (and some tulip fields and windmills!) is at 411/km^2 (and doesn't feel that crowded, although admittedly they have the public transport and urban planning stuff mastered!)

What counts as "crowded" is admittedly subjective. 

 

Note that the U.S. population density figure you cited factors in Alaska, which is a miserable place to live. 

 

When I visited Britain, I thought it was overcrowded. 


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#442
Yuli Ban

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#443
wjfox

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Disappointing progress in supercomputing power.

 

I wonder what caused the slowdown. Hopefully things get back on track from 2025-30.

 

 

exascale-supercomputer-2021-future-timel



#444
Yuli Ban

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#445
Gossamer

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Disappointing progress in supercomputing power.

 

I wonder what caused the slowdown. Hopefully things get back on track from 2025-30.

 

 

It's not really surprising if you look at the data. For some time supercomputers performance increased faster than Moore's law by doubling every year. But this was largely achieved by increasing power consumption. 

 

https://www.top500.o...ing-hpc-market/

 

You can see that #500 graph started falling behind in 2008, that's because the power consumption of these systems didn't increase as fast as the top systems. So, instead of doubling every year, they currently increase by roughly 50 - 60 % every year at this point (compared to Moore's law ~75% a year).


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#446
wjfox

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World population using the Internet, 1990-2035

 

https://www.futureti...a-trends/10.htm

 

 

internet-users-worldwide-1990-2035-futur


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#447
wjfox

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#448
Raklian

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What's going on, Philadelphia!?

 

https://www.nytimes....iladelphia.html


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#449
Yuli Ban

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#450
Yuli Ban

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#451
wjfox

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https://external-pre...f46a94583bc2d60


lol. That's the power of exponential growth for ya. Now apply that same growth/trend to AI, and you get a sense of how disruptive the Singularity will be.


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#452
Raklian

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https://external-pre...f46a94583bc2d60


lol. That's the power of exponential growth for ya. Now apply that same growth/trend to AI, and you get a sense of how disruptive the Singularity will be.

 

 

Yeah, we'll be caught off guard with pants down.


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#453
Yuli Ban

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It's also one reason why I'm not 100% alarmist on AGW. Though we're still not doing enough, we're clearly doing more than we thought we were. Even Donald Trump hasn't cut into the growth of renewables. And I want you to realize how astounding that is. Back in 2016, I thought that the election would determine whether civilization lived or died from climate change because it was clear that Trump would destroy America's renewable energy growth and force coal back into prominence.That hasn't happened. Despite his best efforts, my prediction failed and we're almost near the end of his term with the damage inflicted being relatively negligible (compared to what I thought would happen). And part of the reason is evident in graphs like the one above. 
 
Way back in 2016, when I discovered that the UK reached 10 GW of solar capacity a decade ahead of the most optimistic predictions, I thought for sure that the energy agencies would have gotten the clue and corrected their predictions. I was wrong. The IEA doubled down on their moronic model, again claiming that solar installations are going to stall/decline for no apparent reason.
 
 
We're likely going to end the 2010s with about 700 GW of installed solar capacity.
sKO3L2K.jpg
 
Reminder that, back around 2015, the "high end" scenario for solar capacity by 2020 was 600 GW while the "realistic" scenario was 400 GW. 
 
And need I go back and show how the IEA predicted 1 TW of solar by 2040?

Ramez Naam absolutely tears the IEA a new one. It would be comical if it weren't so tragic. Since 2002, they've had to adjust the solar curve steeper every subsequent year. And yet, their latest "prediction" shows 1000 GW in around 2040. What the hell? We'll get there by 2028, even assuming absolutely no year-over-year growth in new installations!! A more reasonable prediction would be 2021. Similarly horrific battery and EV charts, off by decades only after a couple years.

From the KAI forums circa 2016.


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#454
Erowind

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/\ Neoliberal bias in those WEO models at its finest. The market isn't entirely evil and I think there's something to be said for the power of collective consciousness. Even if my peers are too cynical to try to do anything about global warming and climate change, everyone my age agrees it exists. And if you don't, you're as dumb as a flat earther in the minds of most. Consensus that the threat even exists goes a long way. This is the reason I think even getting people to acknowledge that say the government is corrupt and controlled by oligarchs is a very powerful step. Eventually reality catches up to what humanity as a whole is thinking. Likewise constantly talking about AI makes AI research progress quicker within its physical limits. 


Current status: slaving away for the math gods of Pythagoras VII.


#455
Yuli Ban

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m2gelocangt21.jpg
Courtesy of pyriphlegeton.
 

In his book "the singularity is near" Ray Kurzweil predicts the growth of computational power as depicted in the picture.
 
I added a current data point, as I didn't find any up to date statistic like this.
 
Recently it was announced that the United States invented a new supercomputer, "Aurora", which is capable of more than 10^18 Computations per second.
 
It cost 550 Million dollars to develop, so dividing the FLOPS by 550'000 to arrive at FLOPS per $1000, gave me ~1.8x10^12 FLOPS per $1000.
 
If I made any mistakes, please correct me! :)


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#456
Ericthetrekkie

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I’m assuming that the Chinese computer that Aurora surpassed (Sunway TaihuLight) would be somewhere between the mouse and insect brains right?

#457
Casey

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Little confused. 1.8x10^12 flops is 1.8 teraflops, right? That sounds way too low for $1000, and you say yourself in the reddit thread that $1000 should give you about 50 teraflops.





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